Ukraine's state prosecutor onApril 28launched a criminal case relating to what it said was the misuse by the previous government of Yulia Tymoshenko of about $290 million cash received for selling carbon quotas.
The prosecutor's office said in a statement that 2.3 billion hryvnias, received in 2009 for selling carbon emission rights under the Kyoto agreement, had been misused by the former cabinet of ministers and the finance ministry.
"As a result, a criminal case for violation of budget legislation and abuse of authority was launched on April 28," a statement said. It did not mention Tymoshenko by name.
The action had caused "serious consequences for Ukraine's state interests", it said.
Earlier Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, at a cabinet meeting, accused the Tymoshenko government of massive misuse of budget funds during its time in office, including the alleged disappearance of about $378 million received for selling carbon quotas to Japan.
He suggested much of the money had gone on funding Tymoshenko's unsuccessful election campaign against President Viktor Yanukovych.
Tymoshenko, who lost to Yanukovych in a bitterly-fought run-off in February, denied Azarov's charges.
"I am even happy that today Azarov is preparing a criminal action against me. 'Come closer and then we'll see who wins'," she said.
"It is impossible to blame me for misuse of money and property back then ... It's impossible," she said in Rivne in western Ukraine.
Azarov's charges and the move by the prosecutor's office added to political tension in the ex-Soviet republic following riots on Tuesday in parliament.
Smoke bombs were thrown and deputies brawled as supporters of Tymoshenko and allied groups tried to block ratification of an agreement extending the stay of the Russian navy in a Ukrainian port. Tymoshenko is now seeking public support for a day of protest on May 11 against the policies of Yanukovych.
Azarov, denouncing the 2009 budget of the Tymoshenko government as "the most shameful in Ukraine's history", said it was not known where the money from Ukraine's sale of Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) had gone.
"It's unclear where they (the previous government) spent 3.0 billion hryvnias ($378 million) in foreign ecological investments," he told a government meeting.
"This money must be renewed, included in the budget... and (we will) explain to investors why there is not a single implemented ecological and energy saving project," he said.
In 2009 Ukraine sold 30 million carbon emission rights to Japan for $375 million and said then that it hoped to earn $2 billion or more from the sale of the right-to-pollute carbon credits that it did not use.
The discrepancy in the figures is explained by differences in the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia against the dollar.
The discrepancy in the figures is explained by differences in the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia against the dollar.
Azarov said this and other budget losses were explained by the "unlawful financing" of Tymoshenko's election campaign for president
He said the money from the carbon emissions was only one element of money misused by the Tymoshenko government. "Overall, the actions of the preceding government caused the state to lose about 100 billion hryvnia ($12.6 billion), he said.
"At issue is money, received in payment for the Ukrainian quotas under the Kyoto protocol, part of which were transferred to the government of Japan, Azarov's spokesman Vitaly Lukyanenko said.
"Japan's government paid not only in money, but in investments with a defined purpose and 15 projects... in energy savings agreed by the governments must be implemented," he said.
Wednesday 28 April 2010
Parliament Pandemonium In Ukraine
KIEV, Ukraine -- The speaker of Ukraine’s Parliament huddled under umbrellas as eggs rained down and smoke bombs filled the chamber with an acrid cloud.
Then the lawmakers attacked each other, punching and brawling in the aisles.
The chaos erupted Tuesday as Parliament narrowly approved a 25-year extension to Russia’s lease on a naval base in a Ukrainian port on the Black Sea until 2042 — a move bitterly opposed by pro-Western lawmakers. Ukraine would get cheap natural gas from Russia in exchange.
Ukrainian politics are contentious, and the Parliament is often rowdy. Even so, Tuesday’s session was exceptional, offering a glimpse of the raw emotions surrounding the country’s divisive relations with Russia.
Ukraine, about evenly divided between its Europe-leaning west and its Russian-leaning east, has in recent years become a flashpoint in the struggle between the Western world and Russia for influence in the countries of the former Soviet Union. And for many Ukrainians, the naval base has been a symbol, for better or worse, of the Russian role in the country.
Russia’s influence in Ukraine has surged since the February election victory of pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych. The win infuriated Ukrainians who resent Moscow and inflamed the violent passions that plague the politics of the former Soviet republic.
The current base lease expires in 2017, and the base’s opponents said Russia should withdraw after that. Moscow has based its Black Sea Fleet there since czarist times.
Yanukovych said the reduction in gas prices would bolster Ukraine’s sagging economy and help it meet its obligations to the International Monetary Fund.
The opposition was not swayed.
“Ukraine has begun to lose its independence,” said Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister who lost the presidential race to Yanukovych.
As Parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn opened Tuesday’s legislative session, opposition members threw eggs at him, forcing him to preside behind black umbrellas held by aides.
Opposition lawmakers draped a huge Ukrainian flag over their seats, a signal they would abstain from voting.
Lytvyn defiantly forged ahead amid the falling eggs, calling lawmakers to the stand to make their case on the Black Sea Fleet deal.
About 7 minutes into the session, a smoke bomb went off underneath the draped flag and another was hurled from the back of the gallery. The chamber filled with an acrid cloud as smoke alarms went off — unprecedented scenes in the Parliament.
The lawmakers’ bickering deteriorated into members throwing punches and grappling during the nationally televised session.
Then the lawmakers attacked each other, punching and brawling in the aisles.
The chaos erupted Tuesday as Parliament narrowly approved a 25-year extension to Russia’s lease on a naval base in a Ukrainian port on the Black Sea until 2042 — a move bitterly opposed by pro-Western lawmakers. Ukraine would get cheap natural gas from Russia in exchange.
Ukrainian politics are contentious, and the Parliament is often rowdy. Even so, Tuesday’s session was exceptional, offering a glimpse of the raw emotions surrounding the country’s divisive relations with Russia.
Ukraine, about evenly divided between its Europe-leaning west and its Russian-leaning east, has in recent years become a flashpoint in the struggle between the Western world and Russia for influence in the countries of the former Soviet Union. And for many Ukrainians, the naval base has been a symbol, for better or worse, of the Russian role in the country.
Russia’s influence in Ukraine has surged since the February election victory of pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych. The win infuriated Ukrainians who resent Moscow and inflamed the violent passions that plague the politics of the former Soviet republic.
The current base lease expires in 2017, and the base’s opponents said Russia should withdraw after that. Moscow has based its Black Sea Fleet there since czarist times.
Yanukovych said the reduction in gas prices would bolster Ukraine’s sagging economy and help it meet its obligations to the International Monetary Fund.
The opposition was not swayed.
“Ukraine has begun to lose its independence,” said Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister who lost the presidential race to Yanukovych.
As Parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn opened Tuesday’s legislative session, opposition members threw eggs at him, forcing him to preside behind black umbrellas held by aides.
Opposition lawmakers draped a huge Ukrainian flag over their seats, a signal they would abstain from voting.
Lytvyn defiantly forged ahead amid the falling eggs, calling lawmakers to the stand to make their case on the Black Sea Fleet deal.
About 7 minutes into the session, a smoke bomb went off underneath the draped flag and another was hurled from the back of the gallery. The chamber filled with an acrid cloud as smoke alarms went off — unprecedented scenes in the Parliament.
The lawmakers’ bickering deteriorated into members throwing punches and grappling during the nationally televised session.
Ukraine-Russia Deal On Naval Base, Natural Gas Could Pose Challenges In Region
MOSCOW, Russia -- Ukraine's decision to host a Russian naval base for 25 more years in exchange for cheaper gas, ratified Tuesday despite a brawl over it in the Ukrainian parliament, does little to alter the immediate military balance in the Black Sea but presents other challenges for U.S. goals in the region.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has played down the significance of the pact, saying it should be seen as part of an effort by Ukraine's new president, Viktor Yanukovych, to improve ties with both Russia and the United States in a "balancing act" that "makes sense to us."
But analysts say the deal could hurt Western efforts to support Ukraine's fitful democratic transition, both by allowing it to postpone reforms of its corrupt energy sector and by provoking another round of infighting in the country after years of political instability.
Some also warn that the deal could boost those determined to restore Russia's influence over its neighbors and complicate NATO plans to use the Black Sea as a base against potential foes in the Middle East and Central Asia. The Pentagon, for example, has considered putting part of its missile shield against Iran on ships in the Black Sea.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, visiting Kiev before the ratification vote, hailed the deal as a breakthrough in ties with Ukraine and emphasized how much money Russia was giving up to keep its fleet in Sevastopol, on the southern tip of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
"The proposed price seemed absolutely exorbitant," he said, saying the discount amounted to $40 to $45 billion in savings for Ukraine. "It would be possible to build several bases with this money, but for us, this is an issue of cooperation with Ukraine rather than just the financial aspect."
But Ukraine, which has been battered by the global recession and is seeking an IMF bailout, most likely would not have been able to pay the prices Russia had been asking for natural gas.
As a result, critics say, Ukraine could have negotiated a discount without extending the base lease, originally set to expire in 2017, especially since it owns the pipelines that Russia uses to deliver the gas it sells to Europe.
The deal gives Ukraine about 30 percent off the prices set in the contract it signed with Moscow last year, after a standoff during which the Kremlin cut gas supplies to Europe. But that contract set prices so high that the newly negotiated discount brings them down only to current market levels, said Edward Chow, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"They gave something -- extending the naval base lease -- in order to get what they were really entitled to from the beginning," he said of the Ukrainians, noting that Russia had already renegotiated contracts with other customers in Europe and given them discounts because of falling demand and prices.
The new agreement, Chow argued, is the latest in a series of deals that have benefited powerful industrialists in Ukraine and allowed the country to avoid cleaning up its corrupt gas sector, believed to be a source of funds for politicians. Like those before it, he added, the new deal is so flawed it is unlikely to last long and could again threaten the supply of gas to Europe.
For example, he said, the pact requires Ukraine to buy more gas in subsequent years, perhaps more than it needs. But it doesn't require Russia to continue using Ukraine's pipelines, a key source of income for Kiev. The Kremlin plans to build new pipelines that circumvent Ukraine.
David Kramer, a former George W. Bush administration official now at the German Marshall Fund, said the deal could "feed some of the worst instincts in Russian psychology" about the former Soviet Union, especially after an uprising in Kyrgyzstan toppled a government opposed by the Kremlin.
"They may feel they're on a roll, and usually before too long, the Russians overplay their hand and do it in an unhelpful, unproductive way," Kramer said. But he added that he is more worried about the polarizing impact of the deal on Ukrainian politics, which could make it difficult for Yanukovych to govern effectively.
The intensity of emotions over the decision to extend the Russian lease until 2042 was evident Tuesday as fistfights broke out in parliament and opponents set off smoke bombs and threw eggs at the speaker. But Yanukovych's slim majority prevailed, allowing him to push through a new budget without a sharp rise in utility fees and clear the way for the IMF loan.
The new lease has also caused concern in other countries on the Black Sea, especially Georgia, which Russia defeated in a brief war in 2008. Although the Russian fleet is in poor shape, Moscow plans to upgrade it with Mistral-class helicopter carriers from France.
Radu Tudor, a defense analyst in Romania, one of three NATO allies on the Black Sea, said the Russians' extended presence in Sevastopol poses less of a military problem than a political one.
"They continue to see security as they did in the Cold War, with NATO as the enemy," he said. "So it's going to be much harder now to transform the Black Sea from a Russian lake into a NATO sea."
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has played down the significance of the pact, saying it should be seen as part of an effort by Ukraine's new president, Viktor Yanukovych, to improve ties with both Russia and the United States in a "balancing act" that "makes sense to us."
But analysts say the deal could hurt Western efforts to support Ukraine's fitful democratic transition, both by allowing it to postpone reforms of its corrupt energy sector and by provoking another round of infighting in the country after years of political instability.
Some also warn that the deal could boost those determined to restore Russia's influence over its neighbors and complicate NATO plans to use the Black Sea as a base against potential foes in the Middle East and Central Asia. The Pentagon, for example, has considered putting part of its missile shield against Iran on ships in the Black Sea.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, visiting Kiev before the ratification vote, hailed the deal as a breakthrough in ties with Ukraine and emphasized how much money Russia was giving up to keep its fleet in Sevastopol, on the southern tip of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
"The proposed price seemed absolutely exorbitant," he said, saying the discount amounted to $40 to $45 billion in savings for Ukraine. "It would be possible to build several bases with this money, but for us, this is an issue of cooperation with Ukraine rather than just the financial aspect."
But Ukraine, which has been battered by the global recession and is seeking an IMF bailout, most likely would not have been able to pay the prices Russia had been asking for natural gas.
As a result, critics say, Ukraine could have negotiated a discount without extending the base lease, originally set to expire in 2017, especially since it owns the pipelines that Russia uses to deliver the gas it sells to Europe.
The deal gives Ukraine about 30 percent off the prices set in the contract it signed with Moscow last year, after a standoff during which the Kremlin cut gas supplies to Europe. But that contract set prices so high that the newly negotiated discount brings them down only to current market levels, said Edward Chow, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"They gave something -- extending the naval base lease -- in order to get what they were really entitled to from the beginning," he said of the Ukrainians, noting that Russia had already renegotiated contracts with other customers in Europe and given them discounts because of falling demand and prices.
The new agreement, Chow argued, is the latest in a series of deals that have benefited powerful industrialists in Ukraine and allowed the country to avoid cleaning up its corrupt gas sector, believed to be a source of funds for politicians. Like those before it, he added, the new deal is so flawed it is unlikely to last long and could again threaten the supply of gas to Europe.
For example, he said, the pact requires Ukraine to buy more gas in subsequent years, perhaps more than it needs. But it doesn't require Russia to continue using Ukraine's pipelines, a key source of income for Kiev. The Kremlin plans to build new pipelines that circumvent Ukraine.
David Kramer, a former George W. Bush administration official now at the German Marshall Fund, said the deal could "feed some of the worst instincts in Russian psychology" about the former Soviet Union, especially after an uprising in Kyrgyzstan toppled a government opposed by the Kremlin.
"They may feel they're on a roll, and usually before too long, the Russians overplay their hand and do it in an unhelpful, unproductive way," Kramer said. But he added that he is more worried about the polarizing impact of the deal on Ukrainian politics, which could make it difficult for Yanukovych to govern effectively.
The intensity of emotions over the decision to extend the Russian lease until 2042 was evident Tuesday as fistfights broke out in parliament and opponents set off smoke bombs and threw eggs at the speaker. But Yanukovych's slim majority prevailed, allowing him to push through a new budget without a sharp rise in utility fees and clear the way for the IMF loan.
The new lease has also caused concern in other countries on the Black Sea, especially Georgia, which Russia defeated in a brief war in 2008. Although the Russian fleet is in poor shape, Moscow plans to upgrade it with Mistral-class helicopter carriers from France.
Radu Tudor, a defense analyst in Romania, one of three NATO allies on the Black Sea, said the Russians' extended presence in Sevastopol poses less of a military problem than a political one.
"They continue to see security as they did in the Cold War, with NATO as the enemy," he said. "So it's going to be much harder now to transform the Black Sea from a Russian lake into a NATO sea."
Russia publishes Katyn massacre archives
Russia has published online once-secret files on the 1940 Katyn massacre, in which some 22,000 members of the Polish elite were killed by Soviet forces.
The state archive said the "Packet No. 1" original files had until now only been available to researchers.
The Soviet Union denied its role in the massacre for decades.
But relations between Russia and Poland have warmed since the Polish president and others were killed in a plane crash on their way to a Katyn commemoration.
The six documents that were published on the state archive website were declassified in 1992 on the order of the then-Russian president, Boris Yeltsin.
Current President Dmitry Medvedev had now ordered their publication online, the state archive said.
Beria refers to them as "steadfast, incorrigible enemies of Soviet power".
"Each of them is just waiting for liberation so as to actively join the struggle against Soviet power," it says.
The letter bears Stalin's signature in blue pencil, with the comment "In favour".
Given that historians have already had access to the files for some time, correspondents say the decision to put them on the state archive website is likely to be seen as a symbolic gesture, rather than shedding new light on what happened at Katyn.
"We on the Russian side are showing absolute openness in telling what happened in Katyn and other places with Polish prisoners of war," Russian state archive chief Andrei Artyzov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.
"All the basic documents about these events have been published."
Among the files that remain secret are documents relating to a Russian investigation into the massacre that began in the 1990s.
Russian human rights campaigners have appealed for those documents to be declassified.
Poland has repeatedly demanded that Russia open all its files on Katyn, and the issue has soured relations between the two countries in the past.
Recently though, tension over Katyn has eased.
Earlier this month leaders from both states marked the massacre together for the first time, in a joint ceremony attended by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk.
It was the first Russian ceremony to commemorate Katyn.
Days later, Polish President Lech Kaczynski and more than 90 others were killed when their plane crashed as it was trying to land in western Russia ahead of a separate event to mark the killings.
Moscow's handling of the aftermath of the crash was well received by Poles.
The April 1940 killings were carried out by the NKVD on Stalin's orders.
Members of the Polish elite, including officers, politicians and artists, were shot in the back of the head and their bodies dumped in mass graves.
The killings took place at various sites, but the western Russian forest of Katyn has become their chief symbol.
The Soviet Union blamed the massacre on Nazi Germany before acknowledging responsibility in 1990.
One of the documents now posted online was a March 1959 letter marked "Top Secret" from the former head of the KGB, Alexander Shelepin, to then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, proposing that all dossiers concerning the Katyn killings be destroyed.
He said the authorities should just keep a few documents - the minutes of meetings of the NKVD troika that condemned the prisoners and some papers on the fulfilment of the troika's instructions.
Shelepin wrote that the official Soviet version - that Nazi Germany had carried out the killings - had been "firmly implanted in international opinion".
Sunday 25 April 2010
Azarov, Prince Andrew discuss bilateral trade prospects
Ukraine and Great Britain are planning to increase the volume of trade between the countries, says Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov.
"Both countries are interested in improving the cooperation in trade," the prime minister said on Friday during a meeting with Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, the UK's special representative for international trade and investment, the government's press service reported.
During the meeting, the two officials discussed energy issues, in particular, the agreement about the reduction of the price of Russian gas for Ukraine.
In addition, Azarov told Price Andrew about the government's plans to sign an association agreements and an agreement on free trade zone with the European Union before the end of 2010.
In turn, Prince Andrew said that British businessmen were interested in investing into the Ukrainian economy. The UK business could play an important role in investing in Ukraine and helping it to grow, he said.
"Both countries are interested in improving the cooperation in trade," the prime minister said on Friday during a meeting with Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, the UK's special representative for international trade and investment, the government's press service reported.
During the meeting, the two officials discussed energy issues, in particular, the agreement about the reduction of the price of Russian gas for Ukraine.
In addition, Azarov told Price Andrew about the government's plans to sign an association agreements and an agreement on free trade zone with the European Union before the end of 2010.
In turn, Prince Andrew said that British businessmen were interested in investing into the Ukrainian economy. The UK business could play an important role in investing in Ukraine and helping it to grow, he said.
Putin wins Austrian gas deal, scorns EU pipeline
Austria signed up to build part of Russia's South Stream gas pipeline on Saturday, and visiting Prime Minister Vladimir Putin scorned the EU's rival Nabucco project as futile.
Politically neutral Austria has become a key battleground for the competing pipelines, both of which are expected to cross the alpine state before delivering gas to other European Union members.
The 7.9 billion euro ($10.62 billion) Nabucco pipeline is part of the EU's long-term effort to diversify its natural gas supplies and reduce dependence on Russia by bringing up to 31 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually from the Caspian regionto an Austrian hub via Turkey and the Balkans.
But it has no confirmed suppliers and has been hit by numerous delays.
"Building a pipeline without supply contracts is pointless and extremely dangerous," Putin said in the Austrian capital. "Name me one contract that has been signed for Nabucco."
He was speaking after Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann's government provided a key signature needed to launch South Stream, Russia's second post-Soviet gas pipeline project.
It will run under the Black Sea to the Balkans, with one of its branches passing through Austrian oil and gas company OMV's hub in Baumgarten, also Nabucco's final destination.
Putin stressed that Russia's abundant natural gas reserves allowed it to ensure South Stream's viability.
"We can guarantee Russia's growing demand and that of essentially all our clients in Europe for the next 100 years," the prime minister said.
He said South Stream would allow Austria to increase Russian gas imports by 2 bcm per year.
DOWNPLAYING CONFLICT
Faymann sought to play down the conflict, stressing that Austria would benefit from both systems.
"We do not know at all how and where exactly the gas supplies for Nabucco will come from," he said. "This is a further proof that we are indeed interested in several pipelines, several possibilities and a diversification. But this does not at all mean that they are judged as being against one another."
Russia's Gazprom, which would be the major supplier to South Stream, is battling to maintain market share in Europe as liquefied natural gas ports go on line and potential shale gas projects take shape.
Despite these threats, energy firms are eager to participate in the new pipelines, with some, such as OMV, joining both.
The Vienna-based firm on Saturday signed a cooperation agreement to build a section of the South Stream pipeline through Austria despite the fact that it is already a shareholder in Nabucco.
"The final investment decision should take place within the next 18 months, the pipeline should start operating by the end of 2015," the Vienna-based group said in a statement.
French utility EDF is also expected to join South Stream, with Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller saying in Vienna that it could become a stakeholder within the next two months. EDF officials in February said they expect to take a 10 percent share in the project.South Stream is expected to go online in 2015, one year after Nabucco currently plans to start operations.
Politically neutral Austria has become a key battleground for the competing pipelines, both of which are expected to cross the alpine state before delivering gas to other European Union members.
The 7.9 billion euro ($10.62 billion) Nabucco pipeline is part of the EU's long-term effort to diversify its natural gas supplies and reduce dependence on Russia by bringing up to 31 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually from the Caspian regionto an Austrian hub via Turkey and the Balkans.
But it has no confirmed suppliers and has been hit by numerous delays.
"Building a pipeline without supply contracts is pointless and extremely dangerous," Putin said in the Austrian capital. "Name me one contract that has been signed for Nabucco."
He was speaking after Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann's government provided a key signature needed to launch South Stream, Russia's second post-Soviet gas pipeline project.
It will run under the Black Sea to the Balkans, with one of its branches passing through Austrian oil and gas company OMV's hub in Baumgarten, also Nabucco's final destination.
Putin stressed that Russia's abundant natural gas reserves allowed it to ensure South Stream's viability.
"We can guarantee Russia's growing demand and that of essentially all our clients in Europe for the next 100 years," the prime minister said.
He said South Stream would allow Austria to increase Russian gas imports by 2 bcm per year.
DOWNPLAYING CONFLICT
Faymann sought to play down the conflict, stressing that Austria would benefit from both systems.
"We do not know at all how and where exactly the gas supplies for Nabucco will come from," he said. "This is a further proof that we are indeed interested in several pipelines, several possibilities and a diversification. But this does not at all mean that they are judged as being against one another."
Russia's Gazprom, which would be the major supplier to South Stream, is battling to maintain market share in Europe as liquefied natural gas ports go on line and potential shale gas projects take shape.
Despite these threats, energy firms are eager to participate in the new pipelines, with some, such as OMV, joining both.
The Vienna-based firm on Saturday signed a cooperation agreement to build a section of the South Stream pipeline through Austria despite the fact that it is already a shareholder in Nabucco.
"The final investment decision should take place within the next 18 months, the pipeline should start operating by the end of 2015," the Vienna-based group said in a statement.
French utility EDF is also expected to join South Stream, with Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller saying in Vienna that it could become a stakeholder within the next two months. EDF officials in February said they expect to take a 10 percent share in the project.South Stream is expected to go online in 2015, one year after Nabucco currently plans to start operations.
Russia's Medvedev says he may seek second term
MOSCOW — Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says he may run for a second term in the 2012 presidential election.
Medvedev's predecessor and mentor, Vladimir Putin, has previously said they will decide between them who will run. Putin is widely considered to remain the nation's most powerful politician despite moving into the prime minister's seat. Most observers expect him to seek a return to the presidency in 2012.
Medvedev told the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten in an interview posted on the Kremlin Web site Saturday that he "doesn't exclude" seeking re-election in 2012.
He said that he would make a decision on whether to run if the public is satisfied with his work during the first term and if he is confident of his electoral performance.
Medvedev's predecessor and mentor, Vladimir Putin, has previously said they will decide between them who will run. Putin is widely considered to remain the nation's most powerful politician despite moving into the prime minister's seat. Most observers expect him to seek a return to the presidency in 2012.
Medvedev told the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten in an interview posted on the Kremlin Web site Saturday that he "doesn't exclude" seeking re-election in 2012.
He said that he would make a decision on whether to run if the public is satisfied with his work during the first term and if he is confident of his electoral performance.
Ukrainian population continues shrinking, says state committee
The population of Ukraine totaled 45.92 million as of March 1, 2010, according to a posting on the official Web site of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine.
A total of 45.94 million people lived in Ukraine in February, according to the statistics committee.
The urban population of Ukraine was 31.5 million people as of March 1. The population decreased by 180,800 people in 2009.
Some 30,700 marriages and 20,200 divorces were registered in Ukraine in January-February. The marriage rate is 4.1 per 1,000 people, and the divorce rate is 2.7 per 1,000.
According to the latest population census, some 48,457,100 people lived in Ukraine as of December 5, 2001.
A total of 45.94 million people lived in Ukraine in February, according to the statistics committee.
The urban population of Ukraine was 31.5 million people as of March 1. The population decreased by 180,800 people in 2009.
Some 30,700 marriages and 20,200 divorces were registered in Ukraine in January-February. The marriage rate is 4.1 per 1,000 people, and the divorce rate is 2.7 per 1,000.
According to the latest population census, some 48,457,100 people lived in Ukraine as of December 5, 2001.
Yanukovych plans to increase salaries, pensions
Ukraine's draft state budget for 2010 envisages the funds to increase salaries and pensions, said Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
"I promised to raise pensions and salaries - we have included this into the budget. This will be accomplished. As for the rest – we have to tighten our belts a bit, and have some patience. The economy has already started to grow, and it will be gradually growing. We will sort out the mess in the economy and in life ... and everything will be fine," he said in an interview to reporters in Kyiv region Saturday.
The life will be improving gradually, not right away, the president said.
"I promised to raise pensions and salaries - we have included this into the budget. This will be accomplished. As for the rest – we have to tighten our belts a bit, and have some patience. The economy has already started to grow, and it will be gradually growing. We will sort out the mess in the economy and in life ... and everything will be fine," he said in an interview to reporters in Kyiv region Saturday.
The life will be improving gradually, not right away, the president said.
Government pledges to finish three metro stations and a bridge by the end of 2010
The Cabinet of Ministers will direct HR 400 million to complete construction and put into operation subway stations Demiivska, Vasylkivska and Holosiivska (Kurenivsko-Chervonoarmiyska subway line) from the Lybidska metro station towards Teremky housing estate until December 31, 2010, and about UAH 1 billion to build the Podilskyi Bridge in Kyiv.
The Department of Information and Mass Communication of the Cabinet of Ministers' Secretariat announced government pledges on Sunday.
"The government will envisage HR 400 million to complete construction and put into operation Demiivska, Vasylkivska and Holosiivska subway stations until December 31, 2010, and about HR 1 billion to build a bridge to Troyeschyna housing estate," the statement cited Prime Minister Mykola Azarov as saying.
Azarov assured the funds will be provided despite of this year's tight budget.
As Ukrainian News reported, the Kyivskyi Metropoliten municipal enterprise intends to finish construction of the three subway stations from the Lybidska subway station towards Teremky housing estate by July 2011.
In July 2005, Kyivmetrobud launched construction of a 3.8-kilometer subway section including three stations: Demiivska, Holosiivska and Vasylkivska.
By today 80-90% of the work had been done. Kyiv city state administration had planned to commission the car part of the Podilskyi Bridge in 2010 and the subway part in 2011.
The Mistobud company started construction of the Podilskyi Bridge in December 2003.
The bridge stretches for 7.5 kilometers. The distance between bridge bearings is 33 meters.
The Department of Information and Mass Communication of the Cabinet of Ministers' Secretariat announced government pledges on Sunday.
"The government will envisage HR 400 million to complete construction and put into operation Demiivska, Vasylkivska and Holosiivska subway stations until December 31, 2010, and about HR 1 billion to build a bridge to Troyeschyna housing estate," the statement cited Prime Minister Mykola Azarov as saying.
Azarov assured the funds will be provided despite of this year's tight budget.
As Ukrainian News reported, the Kyivskyi Metropoliten municipal enterprise intends to finish construction of the three subway stations from the Lybidska subway station towards Teremky housing estate by July 2011.
In July 2005, Kyivmetrobud launched construction of a 3.8-kilometer subway section including three stations: Demiivska, Holosiivska and Vasylkivska.
By today 80-90% of the work had been done. Kyiv city state administration had planned to commission the car part of the Podilskyi Bridge in 2010 and the subway part in 2011.
The Mistobud company started construction of the Podilskyi Bridge in December 2003.
The bridge stretches for 7.5 kilometers. The distance between bridge bearings is 33 meters.
Lukashenko rebukes Kremlin for military bases
The authoritarian leader of Belarus has scolded the Kremlin for not paying for Russian military bases deployed in the ex-Soviet nation.
President Alexander Lukashenko said Sunday that Russia pays "zero rubles, zero kopecks" for two using two bases outside the Belarusian capital, Minsk.
One of the bases is part of Russia's ballistic missile early warning system. The other provides communications with Russian submarines in the Atlantic.
Lukashenko was indignant about last week's agreement between Russia and Ukraine that allowed Moscow to extend its lease of Ukrainian port in return for discounts for natural gas.
Lukashenko also said he might cancel his participation in a summit of a Moscow-dominated security alliance later this month.
President Alexander Lukashenko said Sunday that Russia pays "zero rubles, zero kopecks" for two using two bases outside the Belarusian capital, Minsk.
One of the bases is part of Russia's ballistic missile early warning system. The other provides communications with Russian submarines in the Atlantic.
Lukashenko was indignant about last week's agreement between Russia and Ukraine that allowed Moscow to extend its lease of Ukrainian port in return for discounts for natural gas.
Lukashenko also said he might cancel his participation in a summit of a Moscow-dominated security alliance later this month.
Thousands Protest Russia-Ukraine Deal
MOSCOW, Russia -- Thousands of opposition demonstrators marched in front of the parliament building in Kiev, Ukraine, Saturday, protesting a deal reached earlier this week to extend Russia's military presence in the former Soviet Republic, national news media reported.
Parliamentary opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko -- the former prime minister who lost to Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential election run-off in February -- told protesters Saturday that the ratification of the treaty must be prevented at all costs.
She claimed that Yanukovych is "selling out" Ukraine, has "openly embarked on the path of destruction of [Ukraine's] national interests, and has actually begun the process of eliminating the state's sovereignty," according to a transcript of the speech on her website.
After the deal was signed Wednesday by Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Tymoshenko said it violated part of the Ukrainian Constitution, which forbids the country from hosting foreign military bases after 2017.
Saturday, protesters reportedly adopted a resolution calling the agreement an "unprecedented act of national treason and disgrace," and calling on all opposition groups to unite against it.
According to Tymoshenko's website, some 10,000 people gathered at the rally. But Ukrainian national news agency UNIAN estimated the number of protesters at 5,000.
The deal extends Russia's lease of a major naval base in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, for an additional 25 years, in exchange for a 30 percent cut in the price of natural gas that Russia sells to Ukraine.
The agreement may bring an end to years of disputes over natural gas prices, which culminated in Russia turning off the pipeline to Ukraine. The dispute affected not only Ukrainians, but many Europeans who depend on Russian gas pumped through Ukraine.
The two countries had been at odds ever since the "Orange Revolution" swept Yanukovych's fiercely anti-Russian predecessor Viktor Yushchenko to power in 2005.
Throughout his time in office, Yushchenko repeatedly threatened to expel Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol. The Russian military lease there was scheduled to expire in 2017.
"The prolongation of the Black Sea Fleet's presence in Sevastopol is essential to Russia," Yanukovych said Wednesday. "We understand that the Black Sea Fleet will be one of the guarantors of security on the Black Sea."
The Kremlin-friendly Yanukovych, who hails from predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, trounced Yushchenko in national elections last January.
The Russian president said the new deal added a "concrete and pragmatic dimension" to centuries of relations between Ukrainians and Russians.
Opposition groups in Ukraine, however, were quick to denounce the agreement. Yuschenko's "Our Ukraine" party said the treaty would lead to the "Russification" of Ukraine.
Opposition activists decided Saturday to stage another protest in front of parliament April 27, when the deal will be put to a ratification vote.
Parliamentary opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko -- the former prime minister who lost to Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential election run-off in February -- told protesters Saturday that the ratification of the treaty must be prevented at all costs.
She claimed that Yanukovych is "selling out" Ukraine, has "openly embarked on the path of destruction of [Ukraine's] national interests, and has actually begun the process of eliminating the state's sovereignty," according to a transcript of the speech on her website.
After the deal was signed Wednesday by Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Tymoshenko said it violated part of the Ukrainian Constitution, which forbids the country from hosting foreign military bases after 2017.
Saturday, protesters reportedly adopted a resolution calling the agreement an "unprecedented act of national treason and disgrace," and calling on all opposition groups to unite against it.
According to Tymoshenko's website, some 10,000 people gathered at the rally. But Ukrainian national news agency UNIAN estimated the number of protesters at 5,000.
The deal extends Russia's lease of a major naval base in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, for an additional 25 years, in exchange for a 30 percent cut in the price of natural gas that Russia sells to Ukraine.
The agreement may bring an end to years of disputes over natural gas prices, which culminated in Russia turning off the pipeline to Ukraine. The dispute affected not only Ukrainians, but many Europeans who depend on Russian gas pumped through Ukraine.
The two countries had been at odds ever since the "Orange Revolution" swept Yanukovych's fiercely anti-Russian predecessor Viktor Yushchenko to power in 2005.
Throughout his time in office, Yushchenko repeatedly threatened to expel Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol. The Russian military lease there was scheduled to expire in 2017.
"The prolongation of the Black Sea Fleet's presence in Sevastopol is essential to Russia," Yanukovych said Wednesday. "We understand that the Black Sea Fleet will be one of the guarantors of security on the Black Sea."
The Kremlin-friendly Yanukovych, who hails from predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, trounced Yushchenko in national elections last January.
The Russian president said the new deal added a "concrete and pragmatic dimension" to centuries of relations between Ukrainians and Russians.
Opposition groups in Ukraine, however, were quick to denounce the agreement. Yuschenko's "Our Ukraine" party said the treaty would lead to the "Russification" of Ukraine.
Opposition activists decided Saturday to stage another protest in front of parliament April 27, when the deal will be put to a ratification vote.
Champion Boxer Re-Enters Political Ring In Ukraine
KIEV, Ukraine -- World boxing champion Vitali Klitschko announced Saturday the launch of a new political party to reform Ukraine, giving it the feisty name of "OUDAR", an acronym which means a "punch".
"I am used to achieving my goals, I am convinced that this will be the case not only in the field of sports but also in politics," Klitschko said in a statement.
"With a strong and well-aimed 'punch', I am ready to knock down the wall between society and the authorities which is blocking the development of Ukraine," he said.
The heavyweight WBC champion did not indicate the political leanings of his party OUDAR, whose full name is the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform.
During the former Soviet state's Orange Revolution in 2004, Klitschko supported pro-West former president Viktor Yushchenko against the current head of state, Viktor Yanukovych, elected earlier this year and considered pro-Russian.
Klitschko, 38, however is not a newcomer to political ambition.
The nicknamed "Dr. Iron Fist", because of his doctorate in sports and as one of the few champions never to have been knocked down in his career, did however hit the mat twice in Kiev politics, failing in his bid to be elected the capital's mayor in 2006 and 2008.
"I am used to achieving my goals, I am convinced that this will be the case not only in the field of sports but also in politics," Klitschko said in a statement.
"With a strong and well-aimed 'punch', I am ready to knock down the wall between society and the authorities which is blocking the development of Ukraine," he said.
The heavyweight WBC champion did not indicate the political leanings of his party OUDAR, whose full name is the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform.
During the former Soviet state's Orange Revolution in 2004, Klitschko supported pro-West former president Viktor Yushchenko against the current head of state, Viktor Yanukovych, elected earlier this year and considered pro-Russian.
Klitschko, 38, however is not a newcomer to political ambition.
The nicknamed "Dr. Iron Fist", because of his doctorate in sports and as one of the few champions never to have been knocked down in his career, did however hit the mat twice in Kiev politics, failing in his bid to be elected the capital's mayor in 2006 and 2008.
Russian PM To Visit Ukraine
MOSCOW, Russia -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will visit Ukraine on Monday following an accord allowing Russia to retain a naval base there until 2042 in return for cheap gas, a Russian statement said.
The communique released on Saturday did not spell out Putin's program.
The visit comes on the eve of the ratification by the parliaments of both countries of the deal signed last week granting a 25-year extension to the lease that allows Russia to maintain its Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. The lease had been due to expire in 2017.
In exchange, Moscow gave Kiev a 30 per cent discount on Russian natural gas, which is expected to save Ukraine billions of dollars as it struggles to recover from a crushing economic crisis.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who has sought to improve ties with Russia since taking office in February, signed the controversial deal on Wednesday with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev.
The communique released on Saturday did not spell out Putin's program.
The visit comes on the eve of the ratification by the parliaments of both countries of the deal signed last week granting a 25-year extension to the lease that allows Russia to maintain its Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. The lease had been due to expire in 2017.
In exchange, Moscow gave Kiev a 30 per cent discount on Russian natural gas, which is expected to save Ukraine billions of dollars as it struggles to recover from a crushing economic crisis.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who has sought to improve ties with Russia since taking office in February, signed the controversial deal on Wednesday with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev.
Saturday 24 April 2010
Ukraine Deputy PM Criticizes Yanukovych On Russian Base Extension
WASHINGTON, DC -- A senior official in Ukraine's ruling coalition is criticizing the country's president for a deal to extend the stay of Russia's Black Sea Fleet at a Ukrainian ports.
Serhey Tihypko, prime minister for economic issues, said in an interview with The Associated Press that while the deal might make economic sense, President Viktor Yanukovych should have been more open about the negotiations.
"The procedure of debating the agreement and completing it behind closed doors is not what the Ukrainian people want," Tihypko said through an interpreter.
Tihypko joined the coalition after finishing third during the first round of the presidential contest in January.
Yanukovych signed the deal Wednesday with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to extend the Russian lease at the port of Sevastopol after the existing lease expires in 2017.
Yanukovych's predecessor, Viktor Yuschenko, had threatened to end Russia's lease on the strategically important base.
The deal signals that Yanukovych is looking for closer co-operation with Russia. But Tihypko said that good relations with Russia will not cause a turning away from the West.
He said that European integration remained the country's number one foreign policy priority.
He praised the base deal on economic terms.
Tihypko said that under the agreement, Ukraine will receive large discounts on gas shipments in return for extending the lease, which will ease the country's budget woes.
"From the economic point of view, the latest agreement on the base is a good one," he said.
Ukraine has been hit by the global downturn harder than many other European countries. The country was granted a $16.4 billion bailout loan by the IMF last year.
In October, the fund halted the fourth and final portion of the loan, worth $3.8 billion, demanding that the country's leadership resolve its budget crisis.
Ukraine negotiated the payout of $2 billion in December, but $1.8 billion remains frozen.
Tihypko was in Washington attending meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
He was expected to meet with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn Monday.
Tihypko said that he believe his country could complete a new agreement with the IMF by June.
Serhey Tihypko, prime minister for economic issues, said in an interview with The Associated Press that while the deal might make economic sense, President Viktor Yanukovych should have been more open about the negotiations.
"The procedure of debating the agreement and completing it behind closed doors is not what the Ukrainian people want," Tihypko said through an interpreter.
Tihypko joined the coalition after finishing third during the first round of the presidential contest in January.
Yanukovych signed the deal Wednesday with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to extend the Russian lease at the port of Sevastopol after the existing lease expires in 2017.
Yanukovych's predecessor, Viktor Yuschenko, had threatened to end Russia's lease on the strategically important base.
The deal signals that Yanukovych is looking for closer co-operation with Russia. But Tihypko said that good relations with Russia will not cause a turning away from the West.
He said that European integration remained the country's number one foreign policy priority.
He praised the base deal on economic terms.
Tihypko said that under the agreement, Ukraine will receive large discounts on gas shipments in return for extending the lease, which will ease the country's budget woes.
"From the economic point of view, the latest agreement on the base is a good one," he said.
Ukraine has been hit by the global downturn harder than many other European countries. The country was granted a $16.4 billion bailout loan by the IMF last year.
In October, the fund halted the fourth and final portion of the loan, worth $3.8 billion, demanding that the country's leadership resolve its budget crisis.
Ukraine negotiated the payout of $2 billion in December, but $1.8 billion remains frozen.
Tihypko was in Washington attending meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
He was expected to meet with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn Monday.
Tihypko said that he believe his country could complete a new agreement with the IMF by June.
Ukrainian Opposition Denounces Deal With Russia
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian opposition leaders on Friday denounced a deal allowing Russia to keep its navy in Ukraine for another quarter of a century, saying it amounted to ceding control over the nation's territory.
The agreement is the first concrete sign that newly-elected President Viktor Yanukovych will steer Ukraine back into Russia's orbit, reversing his pro-Western predecessor's attempts to decrease Moscow's influence.
In return, Moscow gave the ex-Soviet republic steep discounts for the Russian natural gas on which its industries depend.
Wednesday's deal signed by Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev allows Russia to extend its lease of the Black Sea Port of Sevastopol for another 25 years after the current lease agreement expires in 2017.
Former President Viktor Yushchenko, who now leads opposition party Our Ukraine, said the deal amounted to Russia's "military occupation."
The agreement is set to come up for ratification next Tuesday in both Russia and Ukraine. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who leads the biggest opposition faction in parliament, urged lawmakers to vote against the deal.
She said Friday that the agreement is a "strategic mistake" that would mean that "Ukraine has lost control over its territory."
But the opposition faces an uphill battle in trying to block the ratification in parliament, which is controlled by Yanukovych's party and its allies.
The opposition denounced the deal as illegal, saying that the constitution does not allow foreign troops to stay in Ukraine. But supporters of the agreement point at another section of the constitution that allows them to stay temporarily with parliament's approval.
Yushchenko pledged to join efforts with Tymoshenko, his fierce political rival, to block the ratification, but even he predicted that the majority coalition in parliament will have its way.
Some opposition lawmakers in the federal parliament and regional legislatures talked about launching impeachment proceedings against Yanukovych.
"Yanukovych's actions should be treated as a state treason, and an impeachment procedure should be launched in parliament," said Borys Tarasyuk, former foreign minister in Tymoshenko's government, who currently chairs a parliamentary committee on the European integration.
Analysts said the pact will trigger a deeper split in Ukrainian society between the Russian-speaking east and south and the western regions where nationalist sentiments run strong.
"The first evident consequence is a significant rise of temperature in Ukrainian politics," said political analyst Igor Zhdanov.
The agreement is the first concrete sign that newly-elected President Viktor Yanukovych will steer Ukraine back into Russia's orbit, reversing his pro-Western predecessor's attempts to decrease Moscow's influence.
In return, Moscow gave the ex-Soviet republic steep discounts for the Russian natural gas on which its industries depend.
Wednesday's deal signed by Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev allows Russia to extend its lease of the Black Sea Port of Sevastopol for another 25 years after the current lease agreement expires in 2017.
Former President Viktor Yushchenko, who now leads opposition party Our Ukraine, said the deal amounted to Russia's "military occupation."
The agreement is set to come up for ratification next Tuesday in both Russia and Ukraine. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who leads the biggest opposition faction in parliament, urged lawmakers to vote against the deal.
She said Friday that the agreement is a "strategic mistake" that would mean that "Ukraine has lost control over its territory."
But the opposition faces an uphill battle in trying to block the ratification in parliament, which is controlled by Yanukovych's party and its allies.
The opposition denounced the deal as illegal, saying that the constitution does not allow foreign troops to stay in Ukraine. But supporters of the agreement point at another section of the constitution that allows them to stay temporarily with parliament's approval.
Yushchenko pledged to join efforts with Tymoshenko, his fierce political rival, to block the ratification, but even he predicted that the majority coalition in parliament will have its way.
Some opposition lawmakers in the federal parliament and regional legislatures talked about launching impeachment proceedings against Yanukovych.
"Yanukovych's actions should be treated as a state treason, and an impeachment procedure should be launched in parliament," said Borys Tarasyuk, former foreign minister in Tymoshenko's government, who currently chairs a parliamentary committee on the European integration.
Analysts said the pact will trigger a deeper split in Ukrainian society between the Russian-speaking east and south and the western regions where nationalist sentiments run strong.
"The first evident consequence is a significant rise of temperature in Ukrainian politics," said political analyst Igor Zhdanov.
Ukraine 'Ready' For Relaxed Visa Regime With EU, Says PM
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said that the European Union has every reason to relax visa requirements for Ukrainian citizens, the Kyiv Post reported Friday, citing Interfax news agency.
He said this during a meeting with EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fuele, the government's press service reported.
The Ukrainian prime minister said that talks on the abolition of the visa regime started in 2004. Ukraine has met most of the demands set by the European Union, Azarov said.
"We are abiding by a readmission agreement. We have no problems with the delimitation of borders and organization of border controls. We are ready to provide our citizens with passports with biometric data within six months," Azarov said.
The prime minister noted that Ukraine expects more active steps from the European Union.
"For Ukrainian citizens who support the idea of joining the European Union and know that visas for EU citizens were canceled five years ago, it is unclear why no progress has been made and why humiliating procedures when obtaining visas remain. So we are waiting for more active steps from the European Commission," Azarov said.
He said this during a meeting with EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fuele, the government's press service reported.
The Ukrainian prime minister said that talks on the abolition of the visa regime started in 2004. Ukraine has met most of the demands set by the European Union, Azarov said.
"We are abiding by a readmission agreement. We have no problems with the delimitation of borders and organization of border controls. We are ready to provide our citizens with passports with biometric data within six months," Azarov said.
The prime minister noted that Ukraine expects more active steps from the European Union.
"For Ukrainian citizens who support the idea of joining the European Union and know that visas for EU citizens were canceled five years ago, it is unclear why no progress has been made and why humiliating procedures when obtaining visas remain. So we are waiting for more active steps from the European Commission," Azarov said.
Thursday 22 April 2010
Fascists target high-profile victims
Last week's assassination of Moscow judge Eduard Chuvashov came just over a year after the killings of lawyer Stanislav Margelov and journalist Anastasia Baburova, who were both anti-fascist activists.
The audacious gunning down of a high-profile judge in central Moscow indicates that the fascists are becoming better organised and more ambitious, experts say.
"Attacks on journalists... officials, lawyers - this move towards a new level of attacks is definitely a trend," Pavel Charny, a hate crime expert at the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights, told The Moscow News.
The authorities' more aggressive prosecution of hate crimes is widely seen as one of the possible causes behind Chuvashov's murder.
"The reason this trend is developing is that skinheads who kill people in the street see that it doesn't change things," Charny said "There are frequent [court] cases now with severe prison sentences." For such fascist and racist gangs, attacking students on the street is no longer worth the risk, he said.
Attacks are still taking place, however. Just this week, on Hitler's birthday, April 20, at least two dark-skinned foreigners were brutally attacked in southwest Moscow.
Meanwhile, the fascists may also have more deeply infiltrated law enforcement agencies through a myriad of personal connections.
"I don't like conspiracy theories, but there are definitely personal connections being established," said Galina Kozhevnikova, an expert at Moscow's Sova Centre, which monitors hate crime.
Over the years, establishing such personal contacts was declared as one of the primary aims of many nationalist groups.
If these connections could not be made, it was declared that law enforcement and government bodies should be infiltrated."
Chuvashov, who was gunned down in the stairwell of his Moscow apartment building on the morning of April 12, had presided in one of this year's most high-profile trials of fascists, handing down severe prison sentences to members of the White Wolves gang in February.
He also presided in the trial of members of the Ryno-Skachevsky gang, and was due to preside over a hearing involving a former organised crime task force officer accused of trying to bomb monuments by Georgian sculptor Zurab Tsereteli.
Investigators have said their main line of enquiry involves Chuvashov's professional activities, but not necessarily the ultranationalist groups that he tried.
Unofficially, however, police sources have been quoted in the media as saying there is a link.
The White Wolves trial, which saw some gang members locked up for as much as 23 years, was a big blow to ultranationalist groups such as Russky Obraz and Russky Verdikt, Kozhevnikova said.
Both groups are involved in defending the members legally and even financially, by raising funds in their support. Websites linked to the groups had made violent threats against Chuvashov, which may in turn have inspired activists to commit the crime, Kozhevnikova said.
Meanwhile, Russky Verdikt, which calls itself a human rights organisation, has been actively defending two of its members, Yevgenia Khasis and Nikita Tikhonov, who are the main suspects in the murder of Baburova and Markelov.
Russky Verdikt director Alexei Baranovsky, in an effort to discredit the investigation and prove that his friends were innocent, went as far as to say that Markelov and Chuvashov were killed by the same gun.
The Investigative Committee has dismissed Baranovsky's theory.
While Charny is sceptical that the White Wolves had the organisational capacity to commit such a high-profile crime, Kozhevnikova said that such groups were as organised as it gets.
"It's just a bunch of small gangs, no more than 10-15 members each, organised according to the Fuhrer principle [with a main leader]," she said.
"Either they are in the same yard or apartment building, or they hang out on the same Internet forum, or they visit the same sports club, or the same druzhina [militia] that patrol the streets with police."
Financing for such groups can come from robberies or from sympathisers in small and medium-sized business, said Charny.
Last summer, police arrested Anton Mukhachev, general director of the Kudinov trading company, who was accused of funnelling millions of roubles from his enterprise into an extremist group.
Smaller contributions from supporters can reach up to 150,000 roubles a month in each specific case, Charny said.
Sometimes, groups have high-placed sympathisers who offer them limited support on a purely individual basis, she said, but ruled out that there was any systemic support of this kind of activity in law enforcement.
"If an official faces pressure, he will give away the group. He won't want to risk his career."
No acting official has ever been implicated in involvement, but xenophobia is widespread, and police officers have been prosecuted for nationalist crimes in the past, Kozhevnikova said.
In 2008, sports trainer and former junior FSB officer Sergei Klimuk was sentenced to life in prison as one of the leaders of a gang that organised a deadly blast at the Cherkizovsky market in August 2006.
Some experts say that law enforcement agencies plant double agents to try and infiltrate the fascist gangs, but the fascists sometimes turn the double agent and instead infiltrate law enforcement.
"It's the same throughout world history," said Kirill Kabanov, head of the National Anti-Corruption Committee who used to serve within the Federal Security Service.
"People within extremist cells are recruited [to take down the cell] and they in turn try to infiltrate the security structure. Sometimes, the situation can get out of control."
Father stabbed on Hitler’s birthday
Moscow travel agency manager Alan Al-Khalidi was coming home to his wife and baby daughter when he was attacked and brutally stabbed by a group of as-of-yet unidentified young men.
The incident, which occurred at 8:30 pm on April 20 - Adolf Hitler's birthday - shocked the quiet neighbourhood around Akademika Artsimovicha Ulitsa, near Belyayevo metro station, and raised new questions about racist violence in the capital.
"I believe Russian fascists were celebrating Hitler's birthday, and so they stabbed my son," Al-Khalidi's mother, Svetlana Bekoyeva, told The Moscow News.
Bekoyeva said that her son was hospitalised with 13 stab wounds. On Thursday, his condition was described as critical, but stable.
Al-Khalidi, 36, is a relative of a journalist at The Moscow News. He has two children: Nikolai, 11, and Milana, who is four months old.
Several people came to Al-Khalidi's aid immediately following the attack and helped him get in touch with his wife, Marina Karakozyan. The attackers were young men with shaved heads, at least one of whom was sporting Nazi-style regalia, Karakozyan said.
"It happened right by where we live. I was waiting for him at home, and he was running late," Karakozyan said. "When I got him on the phone, all he could say was, ‘I've been attacked, I'm dying.' We have an infant at home. I had to leave the baby with the neighbours, and then I ran outside to be with him."
Karakozyan said that public attention needed to be drawn to such attacks.
"I want the man I love to get better, and then I'll think about the people who did this to him," Karakozyan said. "But I also want people to notice this. It shouldn't be kept quiet. People need to know."
Neighbours spoke of Al-Khalidi's good character and expressed outrage at the fact that something like this happened on their street.
"What's scary is that this didn't happen in a dark alley somewhere," said Dasha, a young neighbour of Al-Khalidi's who declined to give her surname.
"This is a very open area. He was just minutes away from his home."
"He is a regular customer of mine and a very kind man," said a local shopkeeper, who asked not to be identified for fear of reprisal. "What happened is shocking."
Alan Al-Khalidi's family is well respected in the area, with his father, Husam, an Iraqi businessman, starting the Soviet Union's first professional football club, Asmaral, in Moscow in 1991. The name "Asmaral" was derived from the names of Husam's children: As for Assil, Mar for Mariam, and Al for Alan.
Husam Al-Khalidi went missing on a trip to visit his relatives during the US occupation of Iraq in 2004. "My son's father, Husam, did a lot of charity work in Russia," Bekoyeva said.
Racist violence is all too frequent in the city, but for the last few years Hitler's birthday has passed with relatively few reported incidents of hate crimes.
"Because of increased police vigilance, April 20 has been considered a safe day for foreigners in the capital," said Galina Kozhevnikova, deputy director of Sova, an anti-racist monitoring organisation. "I'm not sure why this year was different. Perhaps we are dealing with a case of an initiation ceremony of newbies into a racist gang.
One used to get more information about this on Nazi forums, but now that such sites are closely monitored, this is no longer the case."
Sova has information that four people including Alan Al-Khalidi were attacked within the space of four hours that night in the same part of the city, Kozhevnikova said.
"There was Alan, there were two ethnic Kalmyks, and a man from Central Asia, all stabbed," she said. "One Kalmyk and the Central Asian man were killed. The prosecutor's office is currently saying that the attack on the ethnic Kalmyks was not a hate crime, but it's too much of a coincidence."
Residents of Akademika Artsimovicha Ulitsa also suspect that the attack on Al-Khalidi was far from an isolated incident.
"My boyfriend saw a group of young men chasing a maintenance worker later that night. The worker was obviously of non-Slavic background," said Dasha, Al-Khalidi's neighbour.
"My boyfriend said the guy was able to outrun them. We're not sure if this was a related incident, but it probably was."
It seems that Al-Khalidi's assailants knew exactly what they were doing. Doctors told Svetlana Bekoyeva that her son's attackers had managed to strike his heart.
"Of course, these young men are well prepared to carry out such attacks," Kozhevnikova said. "Military-patriotic clubs will train them in hand-to-hand combat, knife fighting and using firearms. And the overwhelming majority of these clubs are run by ultra-right groups."
Police investigators have not yet commented on Al-Khalidi's case in depth, beyond issuing a statement that an attack was carried out and an investigation is underway.
"I believe the police are taking this seriously," Bekoyeva said. "There were eight attackers, who were probably responsible for more than one attack that night. I think at least some of them will be found."
French fancies, Russian style
Bonjour! The French invasion of Russia of 1812 was a turning point in the Napoleonic Wars - and it also affected Russia's varied fascination with the European cultural melting pot.
France was and indeed still is a great influence on Russian society and lifestyle. But what exactly does Russian culture gain from the French? On RT's culture show this week, Martyn Andrews, beret in hand, takes a look at French-Russian architecture, art, dance, food and clothing. Ooh la la!
Friday April 23 at 0:30 am, 2:30 am, 4:30 am, 6:30 am, 8:30 am, 10:30 am, 12:30 pm, 2:30 pm, 4:30 pm, 6:30 pm, 8:30 pm, 10:30 pm
Saturday April 24 at 0:30 am, 2:30 am, 4:30 am, 6:30 am, 8:30 am, 10:30 am, 12:30 pm, 2:30 pm, 4:30 pm, 6:30 pm, 8:30 pm, 10:30 pm
US Pledges Support For Reforms In Ukraine
KIEV, Ukraine -- United States Ambassador to Ukraine has commented the new government for a vigorous start to reforms in that country.
If the reforms continue in this vein, it will promote a positive image of Ukraine in the United States and Europe, Ambassador John Tefft told Ukrainian Justice Minister Oleksandr Lavrynovych at a meeting with him Monday.
The press service of the Justice Ministry quoted Tefft as saying that the United States is ready to help Kiev in the implementation of economic and judicial reforms.
The Ambassador recalled the support to Ukraine on the path of reforms pledged by President Barack Obama during his recent meeting with Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych.
Tefft also conveyed Washington's interest in the details of proposed plans to draft amendments to the legislation in various problem areas.
The emergence of a new administration headed by President Viktor Yanukovych has enlivened the country's bail-out prospects from international agencies.
Battered by the economic downturn, Ukraine was badly in need of a new, stable government to adopt a delayed 2010 budget and restart talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a suspended $16.4 billion bail-out package.
Yanukovych is trying to demonstrate that he will balance relations with Moscow and the West and his commitment to developing relations with Europe.
If the reforms continue in this vein, it will promote a positive image of Ukraine in the United States and Europe, Ambassador John Tefft told Ukrainian Justice Minister Oleksandr Lavrynovych at a meeting with him Monday.
The press service of the Justice Ministry quoted Tefft as saying that the United States is ready to help Kiev in the implementation of economic and judicial reforms.
The Ambassador recalled the support to Ukraine on the path of reforms pledged by President Barack Obama during his recent meeting with Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych.
Tefft also conveyed Washington's interest in the details of proposed plans to draft amendments to the legislation in various problem areas.
The emergence of a new administration headed by President Viktor Yanukovych has enlivened the country's bail-out prospects from international agencies.
Battered by the economic downturn, Ukraine was badly in need of a new, stable government to adopt a delayed 2010 budget and restart talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a suspended $16.4 billion bail-out package.
Yanukovych is trying to demonstrate that he will balance relations with Moscow and the West and his commitment to developing relations with Europe.
Ukraine Might Allow Russian Language In Courts
KIEV, Ukraine -- Lawmakers of Ukraine's pro-presidential Party of Regions have submitted to the parliament a bill, allowing the use of Russian language in during legal proceedings.
Under the current legislation, legal proceedings can be carried out solely in Ukrainian language.
"Legal proceedings solely in the state language create barriers and sometimes make it impossible to defend rights and interests protected by the law, which is a violation of the Ukrainian constitution's Article 55," a summary of the bill, published on the parliament's official website, said.
Ukraine's new government said in early April it would give "broad cultural autonomy" to the country's regions, including to choose the main language used in local government and schools.
The bill, authored by Party of Regions lawmakers Serhiy Kyvalov and Vadym Kolesnychenko, was first introduced to the Supreme Rada in 2007, but was rejected. It allows a court to switch to Russian-language if both parties involved in legal proceedings show consent.
The summary stresses that the bill is not aimed at limiting the use of Ukrainian as a state language and contains no provisions which change its status.
"The bill does not give the state language status to Russian, both explicitly and implicitly," the summary reads.
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, was elected in February on the back of strong support in the largely Russian-speaking south and east of the country, but was less popular in the more nationalist west.
He has said that he would like to make Russian a second state language, but the balance of power in the country makes it unlikely that any political force could secure the votes in parliament necessary to change the constitution.
The governing coalition, led by Yanukovych's Party of Regions, is therefore likely to incorporate the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages into Ukrainian law, which would allow individual regions to use Russian — or other widely spoken languages — for official communication and schooling.
Yanukovych's election sparked fears that he would seek to align Ukraine too closely with Russia, but he has been careful to court the European Union as well, and the language policies are being promoted as part of a wider platform of tolerance.
Under the current legislation, legal proceedings can be carried out solely in Ukrainian language.
"Legal proceedings solely in the state language create barriers and sometimes make it impossible to defend rights and interests protected by the law, which is a violation of the Ukrainian constitution's Article 55," a summary of the bill, published on the parliament's official website, said.
Ukraine's new government said in early April it would give "broad cultural autonomy" to the country's regions, including to choose the main language used in local government and schools.
The bill, authored by Party of Regions lawmakers Serhiy Kyvalov and Vadym Kolesnychenko, was first introduced to the Supreme Rada in 2007, but was rejected. It allows a court to switch to Russian-language if both parties involved in legal proceedings show consent.
The summary stresses that the bill is not aimed at limiting the use of Ukrainian as a state language and contains no provisions which change its status.
"The bill does not give the state language status to Russian, both explicitly and implicitly," the summary reads.
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, was elected in February on the back of strong support in the largely Russian-speaking south and east of the country, but was less popular in the more nationalist west.
He has said that he would like to make Russian a second state language, but the balance of power in the country makes it unlikely that any political force could secure the votes in parliament necessary to change the constitution.
The governing coalition, led by Yanukovych's Party of Regions, is therefore likely to incorporate the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages into Ukrainian law, which would allow individual regions to use Russian — or other widely spoken languages — for official communication and schooling.
Yanukovych's election sparked fears that he would seek to align Ukraine too closely with Russia, but he has been careful to court the European Union as well, and the language policies are being promoted as part of a wider platform of tolerance.
Ukraine Has $1.4 Billion In Domestic Debt Payments
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s government must pay 11 billion hryvnia ($1.4 billion) by the end of next month to service domestic debt, as the country waits for international loan donors to resume payments needed to fund its budget.
The government has to repay 6 billion hryvnia this month and 5 billion hryvnia next month, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said at a meeting with the confederation of industrial companies in the capital Kiev today. The government also needs to cover about 4 billion hryvnia in pension costs, Azarov said, without elaborating.
“This is a bomb under our financial stability,” he said.
Borrowing costs rose to 15 percent at an auction of 3.3 million hryvnia last week, compared with 11.42 percent at the end of March, as investors wait for the International Monetary Fund to resume its $16.4 billion program to help Ukraine cover its financing needs. Credit default swaps on five-year debt rose 20 basis points yesterday to 523, the biggest jump since Feb. 4.
The former Soviet state has received $10.6 billion from the Washington-based lender to date. Deputy Premier Serhiy Tigipko said in an April 15 interview his government struck a deal to extend its IMF program.
The government is also trying to reduce its budget deficit by negotiating a lower price for gas imports from Russia. Azarov said today those talks were “extremely difficult,” as he urged manufacturers to reduce their energy consumption.
“Everything depends on Russia’s good will,” Azarov said. Manufacturers need to consume less energy because Ukraine “cannot buy such expensive gas,” he said.
The government has to repay 6 billion hryvnia this month and 5 billion hryvnia next month, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said at a meeting with the confederation of industrial companies in the capital Kiev today. The government also needs to cover about 4 billion hryvnia in pension costs, Azarov said, without elaborating.
“This is a bomb under our financial stability,” he said.
Borrowing costs rose to 15 percent at an auction of 3.3 million hryvnia last week, compared with 11.42 percent at the end of March, as investors wait for the International Monetary Fund to resume its $16.4 billion program to help Ukraine cover its financing needs. Credit default swaps on five-year debt rose 20 basis points yesterday to 523, the biggest jump since Feb. 4.
The former Soviet state has received $10.6 billion from the Washington-based lender to date. Deputy Premier Serhiy Tigipko said in an April 15 interview his government struck a deal to extend its IMF program.
The government is also trying to reduce its budget deficit by negotiating a lower price for gas imports from Russia. Azarov said today those talks were “extremely difficult,” as he urged manufacturers to reduce their energy consumption.
“Everything depends on Russia’s good will,” Azarov said. Manufacturers need to consume less energy because Ukraine “cannot buy such expensive gas,” he said.
Ukraine Sees New $12 Billion IMF Program
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine hopes to secure a new $12 billion lending program from the International Monetary Fund for the next 30 months, Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko said Tuesday.
"We will present a Ukrainian draft program for cooperation with the IMF over the next 2.5 years. It's a new program aimed at supporting economic growth," he said ahead of a trip to Washington, D.C. Thursday for talks on a new agreement with the fund.
Mr. Tihipko added that he hopes a deal will be reached at the beginning of May, with the first tranche disbursed in June.
The IMF had released around $11 billion of a $16.4 billion program to Ukraine before freezing lending in late 2009 after large spending increases were passed into law. The country badly needs to secure further lending to revive its economy after a 15% contraction last year.
The Ukrainian government has pledged to draft a budget with a deficit of no more than 6% of GDP in order to unlock further lending.
Whether Ukraine can achieve a relatively balanced budget will largely depend on the results of negotiations on the price of imported Russian natural gas. Large subsidies to Ukrainian consumers mean the price of gas is a significant burden on state finances.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said Tuesday that negotiations on a lower price were "tough" ahead of a meeting between the two countries' presidents Wednesday.
"Everything depends on the good will of Russia," Mr. Azarov said at a meeting with Ukrainian industrialists, adding that he hopes talks will end with a mutually beneficial agreement.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will fly to Kharkiv Wednesday in an attempt to finalize an agreement with Viktor Yanukovych, his Ukrainian counterpart, on a discounted price.
Under a contract signed by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in January 2009, Ukraine moved to a market-based price this year of $305 for 1,000 cubic meters in the first quarter. The new president, elected in February, and the government he formed last month argued that the gas contracts are unfair and have pushed for a reduced price.
Ukraine is seeking a discount of one-third, which would save around $3 billion this year. Concessions could help Ukraine's crucial energy-hungry chemicals and steel industries drive an economic recovery.
Mr. Tihipko said GDP growth could exceed the government's forecast of 3.7% this year.
"We will present a Ukrainian draft program for cooperation with the IMF over the next 2.5 years. It's a new program aimed at supporting economic growth," he said ahead of a trip to Washington, D.C. Thursday for talks on a new agreement with the fund.
Mr. Tihipko added that he hopes a deal will be reached at the beginning of May, with the first tranche disbursed in June.
The IMF had released around $11 billion of a $16.4 billion program to Ukraine before freezing lending in late 2009 after large spending increases were passed into law. The country badly needs to secure further lending to revive its economy after a 15% contraction last year.
The Ukrainian government has pledged to draft a budget with a deficit of no more than 6% of GDP in order to unlock further lending.
Whether Ukraine can achieve a relatively balanced budget will largely depend on the results of negotiations on the price of imported Russian natural gas. Large subsidies to Ukrainian consumers mean the price of gas is a significant burden on state finances.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said Tuesday that negotiations on a lower price were "tough" ahead of a meeting between the two countries' presidents Wednesday.
"Everything depends on the good will of Russia," Mr. Azarov said at a meeting with Ukrainian industrialists, adding that he hopes talks will end with a mutually beneficial agreement.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will fly to Kharkiv Wednesday in an attempt to finalize an agreement with Viktor Yanukovych, his Ukrainian counterpart, on a discounted price.
Under a contract signed by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in January 2009, Ukraine moved to a market-based price this year of $305 for 1,000 cubic meters in the first quarter. The new president, elected in February, and the government he formed last month argued that the gas contracts are unfair and have pushed for a reduced price.
Ukraine is seeking a discount of one-third, which would save around $3 billion this year. Concessions could help Ukraine's crucial energy-hungry chemicals and steel industries drive an economic recovery.
Mr. Tihipko said GDP growth could exceed the government's forecast of 3.7% this year.
Ukraine Fleet Deal Expands Russia's Regional Reach
KIEV, Ukraine—Ukraine agreed Wednesday to extend the lease of Russia's Black Sea Fleet base in return for sharply lower natural-gas prices, a long-term trade-off that reasserts much of Moscow's influence over its former Soviet neighbor after years of tension.
The deal was the latest sign of Russia's determination to use its vast energy resources to restore dominance lost when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It will allow Russia to keep a strategic military presence beyond its borders until 2043, a quarter-century beyond the end of its current lease for the naval base on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula.
Ukraine, hit hard by the global economic downturn, received a waiver of export taxes that will knock as much as 30% off the price of Russian gas over the next nine years, avoiding disputes that have often led to midwinter gas cutoffs.
The commitments were a clear sign that Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who took office two months ago, is moving the country closer to Moscow after years of rule by pro-Western leaders of Ukraine's Orange Revolution. Some of those politicians, now in opposition, condemned Mr. Yanukovych's concession on the naval base as a sellout of Ukraine's sovereignty.
Mr. Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, announced the accords after meeting in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Mr. Medvedev told a joint news conference that the gas and base accords were linked. "This was a step we have awaited for a long time," he said of the base extension. In return, he said, "our Ukrainian partners will receive a discount in the price of gas."
Ukraine, a country of 46 million people wedged between Russia and the European Union, has struggled to balance its relations with the two since independence in 1991. Mr. Yanukovych's predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, infuriated Moscow by trying to kick the fleet out of Ukraine, calling it a hostile presence.
The Black Sea Fleet was once part of the Soviet navy and remained in Ukraine under the Russian flag. The current lease on the base was signed in 1996.
Mr. Yanukovych, who has abandoned his predecessor's goal of bringing Ukraine into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, now risks alienating a large part of his compatriots by allowing the fleet to stay. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who leads Ukraine's largest opposition party, said the decision violates a constitutional prohibition on foreign military bases in Ukraine—a ban that allows exceptions for stationing troops under a temporary lease.
"It's not just treason," she said. "It's the start of the systematic destruction of the independence of our state."
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying: "We do not regard the Black Sea Fleet as a source of threat to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Mr. Medvedev said the fleet's continued presence would provide "a greater, better guarantee for European security in the Black Sea basin."
The base extension will have repercussions for other former Soviet republics. The fleet, consisting of about 40 combat vessels, provided maritime support for Russian ground forces during a brief war with Georgia in 2008 and sank a Georgian vessel carrying missile launchers.
Russia on Wednesday also confirmed it plans to buy a French Mistral-class warship, according to state news agency RIA-Novosti, a vessel capable of carrying tanks and helicopters and conducting an amphibious landing.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who was in the U.S. for a nuclear security summit, called Wednesday's moves further signs of an expansionist Moscow agenda. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, he said in an interview, "doesn't make any secret of trying to restore some kind of Soviet empire... Ukraine, more or less from their point of view, has been fixed."
"I hear lots of talk [in the U.S.] that the Cold War is over," he said. "It might be over for America, but certainly it's not over for Vladimir Putin."
For Russia, the price of Ukrainian cooperation will amount to billions of dollars in export duties from which Kiev will be exempted. Ukraine has been paying $330 per 1,000 cubic meters of Russian gas under a 10-year agreement on a market-based pricing scheme signed last year.
Mr. Yanukovych called the accord an unsustainable burden on Ukraine's economy, which shrank 15% last year, and pledged during his election campaign to renegotiate it.
The new gas deal, signed Wednesday by Russian gas exporter OAO Gazprom and Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz, will waive export duties on 30 billion cubic meters of gas that Ukraine will buy this year and on 40 billion cubic meters it expects to buy in subsequent years until 2019.
Gazprom said the discount will be 30% of the market-based price but not more than $100 per 1,000 cubic meters. Dragon Capital, a Kiev-based investment bank, estimated that the price cut will save Ukraine about $1.5 billion this year.
That will allow the country's new government to adopt a budget for this year and secure renewed lending from the International Monetary Fund, officials said. Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko will head to Washington on Thursday to present an economic-growth plan to the IMF, which last year suspended a $16.4 billion loan program after large social-spending increases were passed into law.
Gazprom's chief executive, Alexei Miller, said the company's profits will be unaffected by the new arrangement. He also said that under the deal, Ukraine won't pay penalties if it buys less gas the agreed in the contract.
"This deal is a win for everyone," said Matthew Saegers, a Eurasian energy specialist at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Gazprom wins because it maintains its profitable position. Ukraine gets a reduction in price. And the Kremlin gets what it wants—to show that it's the deal maker and geopolitical master in this part of the world."
The deal was the latest sign of Russia's determination to use its vast energy resources to restore dominance lost when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It will allow Russia to keep a strategic military presence beyond its borders until 2043, a quarter-century beyond the end of its current lease for the naval base on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula.
Ukraine, hit hard by the global economic downturn, received a waiver of export taxes that will knock as much as 30% off the price of Russian gas over the next nine years, avoiding disputes that have often led to midwinter gas cutoffs.
The commitments were a clear sign that Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who took office two months ago, is moving the country closer to Moscow after years of rule by pro-Western leaders of Ukraine's Orange Revolution. Some of those politicians, now in opposition, condemned Mr. Yanukovych's concession on the naval base as a sellout of Ukraine's sovereignty.
Mr. Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, announced the accords after meeting in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Mr. Medvedev told a joint news conference that the gas and base accords were linked. "This was a step we have awaited for a long time," he said of the base extension. In return, he said, "our Ukrainian partners will receive a discount in the price of gas."
Ukraine, a country of 46 million people wedged between Russia and the European Union, has struggled to balance its relations with the two since independence in 1991. Mr. Yanukovych's predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, infuriated Moscow by trying to kick the fleet out of Ukraine, calling it a hostile presence.
The Black Sea Fleet was once part of the Soviet navy and remained in Ukraine under the Russian flag. The current lease on the base was signed in 1996.
Mr. Yanukovych, who has abandoned his predecessor's goal of bringing Ukraine into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, now risks alienating a large part of his compatriots by allowing the fleet to stay. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who leads Ukraine's largest opposition party, said the decision violates a constitutional prohibition on foreign military bases in Ukraine—a ban that allows exceptions for stationing troops under a temporary lease.
"It's not just treason," she said. "It's the start of the systematic destruction of the independence of our state."
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying: "We do not regard the Black Sea Fleet as a source of threat to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Mr. Medvedev said the fleet's continued presence would provide "a greater, better guarantee for European security in the Black Sea basin."
The base extension will have repercussions for other former Soviet republics. The fleet, consisting of about 40 combat vessels, provided maritime support for Russian ground forces during a brief war with Georgia in 2008 and sank a Georgian vessel carrying missile launchers.
Russia on Wednesday also confirmed it plans to buy a French Mistral-class warship, according to state news agency RIA-Novosti, a vessel capable of carrying tanks and helicopters and conducting an amphibious landing.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who was in the U.S. for a nuclear security summit, called Wednesday's moves further signs of an expansionist Moscow agenda. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, he said in an interview, "doesn't make any secret of trying to restore some kind of Soviet empire... Ukraine, more or less from their point of view, has been fixed."
"I hear lots of talk [in the U.S.] that the Cold War is over," he said. "It might be over for America, but certainly it's not over for Vladimir Putin."
For Russia, the price of Ukrainian cooperation will amount to billions of dollars in export duties from which Kiev will be exempted. Ukraine has been paying $330 per 1,000 cubic meters of Russian gas under a 10-year agreement on a market-based pricing scheme signed last year.
Mr. Yanukovych called the accord an unsustainable burden on Ukraine's economy, which shrank 15% last year, and pledged during his election campaign to renegotiate it.
The new gas deal, signed Wednesday by Russian gas exporter OAO Gazprom and Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz, will waive export duties on 30 billion cubic meters of gas that Ukraine will buy this year and on 40 billion cubic meters it expects to buy in subsequent years until 2019.
Gazprom said the discount will be 30% of the market-based price but not more than $100 per 1,000 cubic meters. Dragon Capital, a Kiev-based investment bank, estimated that the price cut will save Ukraine about $1.5 billion this year.
That will allow the country's new government to adopt a budget for this year and secure renewed lending from the International Monetary Fund, officials said. Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko will head to Washington on Thursday to present an economic-growth plan to the IMF, which last year suspended a $16.4 billion loan program after large social-spending increases were passed into law.
Gazprom's chief executive, Alexei Miller, said the company's profits will be unaffected by the new arrangement. He also said that under the deal, Ukraine won't pay penalties if it buys less gas the agreed in the contract.
"This deal is a win for everyone," said Matthew Saegers, a Eurasian energy specialist at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Gazprom wins because it maintains its profitable position. Ukraine gets a reduction in price. And the Kremlin gets what it wants—to show that it's the deal maker and geopolitical master in this part of the world."
Ukraine Suspends VimpelCom Deal On Day Of Share Debut
MOSCOW, Russia -- Ukraine's antitrust authority Thursday said it has suspended its earlier approval of a $22 billion tie-up between Kyivstar and Russian mobile operator OAO Vimpel Communications after a rival company complained about their market share and use of mobile spectrum.
Astelit, part-owned by Turkey's Turkcell AS, petitioned Ukrainian authorities to re-examine the deal, and the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine said it will "check the information we received in order not to allow monopolization."
Astelit told authorities to consider VimpelCom Ltd.'s share of 2009 mobile revenue in Ukraine, rather than merely its subscriber count, since some Ukrainians have more than one mobile phone, the antitrust regulator said. It should also review the companies' share of GSM spectrum, some of which is used by the Ministry of Defense, the committee's statement said.
A final decision will either confirm the committee's earlier approval of the merger, deny it, or require shareholders of newly created VimpelCom Ltd. to take further steps.
VimpelCom Ltd., which was to assume OAO VimpelCom's VIP ticker on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday, declined to comment immediately on the Ukrainian announcement. Part-owner Telenor ASA of Norway said a Ukrainian review of the decision could take several months.
VimpelCom shareholder Alfa Group said it hasn't received documents from Ukraine but it doesn't expect legal consequences arising from the regulator, since all regulatory criteria were satisfied when the deal closed.
"In the worst-case scenario, the creation of VimpelCom Ltd. being reversed, the company's minorities would get OAO VimpelCom's shares back, which might be listed back on the NYSE until the conflict with the Ukrainian regulator has been resolved," VTB Capital analyst Victor Klimovich said. The company may have to give up some frequency spectrum in Ukraine in order to placate the authorities there, he said.
VimpelCom Ltd. said Wednesday that 97.87% of OAO VimpelCom's shareholders had tendered their shares in the offer to merge with Kyivstar, above the required 95% threshold. The remaining shareholders will be squeezed out in a process to be detailed by May 26.
Astelit, part-owned by Turkey's Turkcell AS, petitioned Ukrainian authorities to re-examine the deal, and the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine said it will "check the information we received in order not to allow monopolization."
Astelit told authorities to consider VimpelCom Ltd.'s share of 2009 mobile revenue in Ukraine, rather than merely its subscriber count, since some Ukrainians have more than one mobile phone, the antitrust regulator said. It should also review the companies' share of GSM spectrum, some of which is used by the Ministry of Defense, the committee's statement said.
A final decision will either confirm the committee's earlier approval of the merger, deny it, or require shareholders of newly created VimpelCom Ltd. to take further steps.
VimpelCom Ltd., which was to assume OAO VimpelCom's VIP ticker on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday, declined to comment immediately on the Ukrainian announcement. Part-owner Telenor ASA of Norway said a Ukrainian review of the decision could take several months.
VimpelCom shareholder Alfa Group said it hasn't received documents from Ukraine but it doesn't expect legal consequences arising from the regulator, since all regulatory criteria were satisfied when the deal closed.
"In the worst-case scenario, the creation of VimpelCom Ltd. being reversed, the company's minorities would get OAO VimpelCom's shares back, which might be listed back on the NYSE until the conflict with the Ukrainian regulator has been resolved," VTB Capital analyst Victor Klimovich said. The company may have to give up some frequency spectrum in Ukraine in order to placate the authorities there, he said.
VimpelCom Ltd. said Wednesday that 97.87% of OAO VimpelCom's shareholders had tendered their shares in the offer to merge with Kyivstar, above the required 95% threshold. The remaining shareholders will be squeezed out in a process to be detailed by May 26.
Foreign firms pledge not to give bribes in Russia
Dozens of international firms doing business in Russia have pledged not to offer bribes, in a move aimed at fighting corruption collectively.
The accord, signed at an official ceremony in Moscow, was initiated by the companies, not the Kremlin, said the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce.
Anti-corruption group Transparency International has said bribery in Russia is worth $300bn (£195bn) a year.
Two recent bribery scandals in Russia have involved foreign firms.
The agreement was praised by Russian presidential adviser Arkady Dvorkovich.
"We are glad that foreign companies have heard us and are ready to help us fight corruption," he told Russian business daily Vedomosti.
Among more than 50 predominantly German companies which signed the agreement were Siemens, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bahn and Axel Springer AG.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has declared fighting corruption to be one of the main goals of his presidency.
Last week he signed a decree outlining his government's approach to tackling the problem.
Recently there have been two high-profile bribery scandals in Russia involving international companies.
Russian, German and US authorities are investigating whether US computer company Hewlett-Packard paid millions of dollars in bribes to win a big contract in Russia several years ago.
A spokesperson for Hewlett-Packard said last week that HP would "continue to fully co-operate with the authorities investigating this matter".
"This is an investigation of alleged conduct that occurred almost seven years ago, largely by employees no longer with HP," the spokesperson said.
Also, German carmaker Daimler agreed to pay $185m to settle a US corruption case involving offences committed in Russia.
However, the executive director of the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce, Michael Harms, called it "a coincidence" that international companies signed the anti-bribery agreement only days after Mr Mededev unveiled the recent official policy and the two bribery scandals became public.
"We have been working on it [the agreement] for half a year, we would not be able to do it just in a week," .
Mr Harms said that German companies doing business in Russia were the first to lay down the collective measures against corruption.
He admitted that the task of tackling corruption in Russia was a difficult one, but said that it could be achieved "in the long run".
Elena Panfilova, head of Transparency International in Russia, said that the anti-bribery agreement was "good rather than bad".
She added, however, that any company working in Russia could find itself in a situation when it did not want to give bribes but was forced to do so if it wanted to carry on doing business. The agreement would not solve situations such as these, she said.
Robert Mitchell, head of enhanced due diligence for Europe, Middle East and Africa at risk specialist World-Check, said that governments were responsible for dealing with the problem of corrupt officials.
"They [governments] have to practice what they preach," he said.
Mr Mitchell added that the way to try to solve the problem in Russia was to follow in the footsteps of western countries and blacklist individuals and companies who were responsible for receiving bribes.
Traditions different from those in Russia, as well as tougher laws in their home markets, could be the reason why, according to Mr Harms, foreign companies have been much more eager to join the anti-bribery initiative than Russian firms.
Several corruption scandals involving international companies working in Russia became public not as a result of Russian officials' moves, but after prosecutors in Western countries took action.
"Western companies think that even if things remain hidden in Russia, they will be uncovered at home," said Ms Panfilova.
"In Russia, it is a different story."
Most experts agree that foreign companies' readiness not to offer bribes in Russia is a good sign, but it will not be enough to eradicate corruption any time soon.
Mr Harms believes that this time the companies signing the agreement have managed to come up with a mechanism to fight corruption on day-to-day basis.
But critics say it is not yet clear whether declarations of intention will be followed by effective actions.
History shows that in terms of successfully fighting corruption in Russia, not a lot has been achieved so far.
Russian quarterly economic growth 'slows to 0.6%'
Russia's economy grew by 0.6% from January to March, slower than during the previous two quarters, according to the economic development ministry.
Minister Elvira Nabiullina said there were signs of revival, but "investment and consumer demand is not yet stable".
Russia's statistical agency, Rosstat, will not issue its preliminary estimate of the country's first-quarter GDP until mid-May.
Russia, hit hard by the global crisis, saw its economy fall by 7.9% in 2009.
The country spent a year in recession before returning to growth in the third quarter of 2009.
The economy expanded by 2% in the July-September period of 2009, followed by growth of 1.7% in the final three months of the year, according to Ms Nabiullina.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia's recession was over, but not the crisis.
"The situation really has been quite complicated," Mr Putin told the Russian parliament.
"It is now far from benign, but the gloomiest predictions were not realised - and not because we were simply lucky."
She added that Russia's gross domestic product rose in March by 4.9% in comparison with the same month a year ago, while in February, the Russian economy grew 3.9% year-on-year.
Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told journalists on Tuesday that the country's GDP growth might reach 4% this year, more than the initial official forecast of 3.1%.
The country's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues.
Ukraine extends Russia's Black Sea Fleet lease
Kiev and Moscow have agreed to extend the lease allowing Russia's Black Sea Fleet to be stationed in Ukraine by 25 years in return for cheaper gas.
The deal was signed by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev.
The lease of Russia's naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, had been due to expire in 2017.
It was not immediately clear if the extension would be effective from now or from 2017.
Mr Yanukovych's pro-Western predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, had opposed any extension of the lease.
Mr Yushchenko, who was ousted in presidential elections earlier this year, had wanted Ukraine to join Nato - a move strongly opposed by the Kremlin.
Mr Yanukovych and Mr Medvedev signed the agreement after talks in Ukraine's eastern city of Kharkiv.
Mr Yanukovych, who had pledged to deal with all issues causing tensions between Kiev and Moscow during the Yushchenko administration, said the deal was agreed because "it was important for our Russian colleagues and friends".
He said that the move would have a positive impact for stability in the Black Sea region and Europe.
The deal also has a clause allowing the lease to be extended for a further five years.
In return, Russia agreed to grant Ukraine a discount on imports of Russian gas.
The complicated formula would give Ukraine a discount of $100 for every 1,000 cubic metres of gas providing the benchmark rate was above $330 or a discount of 30% if the rate was lower than that.
Ukraine currently pays $305 per 1,000 cubic metres.
In the past few years, tensions between Moscow and Kiev have led Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy giant, to switch off the taps on a number of occasions, affecting a number of European countries.
Europe gets a quarter of its gas from Russia, and most of that arrives via an extensive network of pipelines running through Ukraine.
Russia raises $5.5bn via first Eurobond sale for decade
Russia has raised $5.5bn (4bn euros; £3.5bn) in its first international debt sale since it defaulted in 1998.
Initial reports said that demand for the Eurobond was five times over-subscribed despite investors' growing caution about government fund-raising.
The Eurobond was split between a $2bn issue repayable in five years, and $3.5bn in ten years.
"The placement is rather a success," said Nikolay Podguzov, analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow.
Reports said that the 5-year tranche was priced at 125 percentage points above US Treasury bonds, and the 10-year tranche priced at 135 points above.
Final pricing is expected later on Thursday, and it is possible that Russia could raise more than $5.5bn.
Demand for the Eurobond was high as some investors believe economic growth in Russia could now be stronger than elsewhere in Europe and the US.
Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that the growth of the country's total economic output, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), might reach 4% this year, more than the initial official forecast of 3.1%.
The success of the fund-raising is seen as another step towards re-building investors' confidence in Russia since it defaulted on $40bn of debts 12 years ago.
Moody's, the ratings agency, rates Russia's debt Baa1, three levels above non-investment-grade.
Standard & Poor's ranks the country one level lower than Moody's, at triple-B, though still potentially attractive to some professional investors.
Sunday 18 April 2010
Yanukovych Lives Up To Low Expectations
KIEV, Ukraine -- What a stark difference between Viktor Yanukovych’s first trip to Washington D.C. as president and that of his predecessor five years ago, the then newly elected President Viktor Yushchenko.
In 2005, Yushchenko was greeted enthusiastically by U.S. President George W. Bush. The hero of the recent Orange Revolution was accorded the rare privilege of addressing both houses of Congress whose members, many displaying their reverence by sporting orange ties or shawls, listened to the man who seemingly promised to lead Ukraine into a golden future.
Even at that early stage, though, there were disturbing signs that the hero had feet of clay. In Ukraine, politicians, journalists and others waiting for an audience with Yushchenko had grown used to his notorious tardiness which often kept people waiting for hours. In the first flush of adoration, though, that bad habit was usually overlooked or excused.
However, when he was an hour late for a reception organized by two of D.C.’s most respected politicians, Republican heavyweight U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright,there was a glimpse of the hubris that would come to characterize Yushchenko’s presidency.
Yushchenko’s invitation to the U.S. capital symbolized the enthusiastic support offered him by the world’s key democracies, when Ukraine was handed its best chance, probably ever, to emerge as a respected and important player on the international stage.
Instead, Yushchenko broke his election promises, betrayed his supporters, embraced those he had formerly (and correctly) called criminals, presided over a dizzying rise in corruption, squandered a myriad of opportunities to introduce vital reforms, and embarrassed his political well-wishers in D.C., Brussels and elsewhere.
The best thing about Yushchenko’s presidency is that it is over. But in the course of it he shattered the expectations of Ukraine’s international friends.
That has understandably dampened the willingness of foreign governments and politicians to trust Ukraine. Western diplomats in Kiev, among them good friends of Ukraine, say it is difficult for them to persuade their governments to devote resources to fresh projects in the country because of what they refer to as “Ukraine fatigue.”
Yanukovych is faced with an ostensibly gargantuan task to regain a semblance of international trust for Ukraine. However,from another perspective, because Yushchenko has bequeathedhim such a low benchmark of expectation, it does not require Yanukovych to do that much to make him shine in comparison to his dismal predecessor.
The change in president and government provides Western countries and institutions with an opportunity to remodel the way they engage with Ukraine. Yushchenko used to promise great things to D.C. and Brussels while delivering little or nothing.
He was indulged to a great extent and allowed to get away with reneging on those promises, including economic reforms and combating massive official corruption, because he was viewed as a friend.
Western countries shied away from criticizing Yushchenko because it took a long time for people to realize that Yushchenko was a petty person of little vision, full of hot air and unwilling to take any hard decisions. He was offered a lot of carrots but Western countries were reluctant to use a stick against someone viewed as broadly in their camp.
No such considerations need apply to the West’s dealing with Yanukovych. The West owes nothing to Yanukovych or his administration but that makes putting relations onto a much more business-like plane easier.
Nobody should have any illusions that Yanukovych will develop a patriotic love of Ukraine and that the influences and loyalties that have governed his behavior as he rose within the Donetsk “business” clan are now a thing of the past.
His first loyalty will continue to be to the shady clan rather than Ukraine. His interest in Ukraine will almost certainly always be akin to that of a gang member protecting his turf rather than anything bound up with patriotism of the well being of the nation.
But although he may confer some sort of special status on dealings with Russia and cede a lot to Moscow, his clan interests will dictate that he doesn’t give too much away. The businessmen of the Donetsk clan who propelled Yanukovych to power want to be big fish in a Ukrainian pool rather than small ones in a Russian alligator swamp.
And members of these mafia-like clans do operate by some rather strict rules so that, ironically, Yanukovych may be more likely to keep his word than Yushchenko.
Another powerful stick in Western hands is that, although many business people associated with Yanukovych have murky or downright criminal pasts, they know they have to change their image if they want to expand their businesses with the help of western creditsor to raise capital by floating their companies on Western stock exchanges.
The West should push for economic reforms in Ukraine; for business transparency; to clean out the justice system so that western businesses and investors get real protection for their assets without being milked for bribes or swindled by the tax authorities by making any loans contingent on demonstrable improvements in all those areas.
The message should be that Ukraine will only be able to expand into the West of it allows the same conditions to become the norm in Ukraine for Western businessmen as it seeks to exploit in the West.
Failures by the Ukrainian side should prompt immediate and severe use of the stick.
Obviously, Ukraine should also reward good behavior. Yanukovych has been praised for his nuclear initiative during his D.C. trip and those plaudits should be accompanied by a tasty carrot. Apart from loans or financial aid, the West has a whole larder of juicy carrots.
Yanukovych’s declaration about wanting closer ties with the European Union should be taken at face value. Brussels can provide a huge incentive for Ukraine to introduce reforms that will benefit both Western countries and Ukrainians if it clearly outlines a route for EU membership, as long as Kiev adheres to a clearly understood set of criteria.
The time frame may be a long one but that need not mater as long as there is something to aim for. The promise of eventual EU membership has worked wonders for Turkish democracy and its economy for three decades despite the fact no date was ever set.
One of the most important inducements is a more flexible visa regime to Western Europe and America that would stem the bitterness born of the humiliating hurdles placed before rich and poor Ukrainians alike who want to venture out of their country.
Western policy has to be tough towards the new Ukrainian government but it has to be applied judiciously. Moscow gleefully thinks that a Yanukovych presidency will let them, in all but name, to re-incorporate Ukraine into some kind of new empire. Moscow will hold out financial temptations to get its way in Ukraine.
Although Russian gas prices have not been decreased, cheaper gas and other gifts will be offered to bind Ukraine closer to the Kremlin. So tough Western measures on Ukraine have to be tempered with the offer of benefits that do not tilt Kiev too far towards Moscow.
It should be made clear that the years of Western indulgence for a delinquent Kiev are over and Kiev will only receive help and privileges by earning them. The stick has to be used wisely but it does have to be used un-hesitatingly, if necessary.
Sticks are something the likes of Yanukovych and his closest cronies understand. After all many of them have wielded baseball bats while not actually playing the sport.
In 2005, Yushchenko was greeted enthusiastically by U.S. President George W. Bush. The hero of the recent Orange Revolution was accorded the rare privilege of addressing both houses of Congress whose members, many displaying their reverence by sporting orange ties or shawls, listened to the man who seemingly promised to lead Ukraine into a golden future.
Even at that early stage, though, there were disturbing signs that the hero had feet of clay. In Ukraine, politicians, journalists and others waiting for an audience with Yushchenko had grown used to his notorious tardiness which often kept people waiting for hours. In the first flush of adoration, though, that bad habit was usually overlooked or excused.
However, when he was an hour late for a reception organized by two of D.C.’s most respected politicians, Republican heavyweight U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright,there was a glimpse of the hubris that would come to characterize Yushchenko’s presidency.
Yushchenko’s invitation to the U.S. capital symbolized the enthusiastic support offered him by the world’s key democracies, when Ukraine was handed its best chance, probably ever, to emerge as a respected and important player on the international stage.
Instead, Yushchenko broke his election promises, betrayed his supporters, embraced those he had formerly (and correctly) called criminals, presided over a dizzying rise in corruption, squandered a myriad of opportunities to introduce vital reforms, and embarrassed his political well-wishers in D.C., Brussels and elsewhere.
The best thing about Yushchenko’s presidency is that it is over. But in the course of it he shattered the expectations of Ukraine’s international friends.
That has understandably dampened the willingness of foreign governments and politicians to trust Ukraine. Western diplomats in Kiev, among them good friends of Ukraine, say it is difficult for them to persuade their governments to devote resources to fresh projects in the country because of what they refer to as “Ukraine fatigue.”
Yanukovych is faced with an ostensibly gargantuan task to regain a semblance of international trust for Ukraine. However,from another perspective, because Yushchenko has bequeathedhim such a low benchmark of expectation, it does not require Yanukovych to do that much to make him shine in comparison to his dismal predecessor.
The change in president and government provides Western countries and institutions with an opportunity to remodel the way they engage with Ukraine. Yushchenko used to promise great things to D.C. and Brussels while delivering little or nothing.
He was indulged to a great extent and allowed to get away with reneging on those promises, including economic reforms and combating massive official corruption, because he was viewed as a friend.
Western countries shied away from criticizing Yushchenko because it took a long time for people to realize that Yushchenko was a petty person of little vision, full of hot air and unwilling to take any hard decisions. He was offered a lot of carrots but Western countries were reluctant to use a stick against someone viewed as broadly in their camp.
No such considerations need apply to the West’s dealing with Yanukovych. The West owes nothing to Yanukovych or his administration but that makes putting relations onto a much more business-like plane easier.
Nobody should have any illusions that Yanukovych will develop a patriotic love of Ukraine and that the influences and loyalties that have governed his behavior as he rose within the Donetsk “business” clan are now a thing of the past.
His first loyalty will continue to be to the shady clan rather than Ukraine. His interest in Ukraine will almost certainly always be akin to that of a gang member protecting his turf rather than anything bound up with patriotism of the well being of the nation.
But although he may confer some sort of special status on dealings with Russia and cede a lot to Moscow, his clan interests will dictate that he doesn’t give too much away. The businessmen of the Donetsk clan who propelled Yanukovych to power want to be big fish in a Ukrainian pool rather than small ones in a Russian alligator swamp.
And members of these mafia-like clans do operate by some rather strict rules so that, ironically, Yanukovych may be more likely to keep his word than Yushchenko.
Another powerful stick in Western hands is that, although many business people associated with Yanukovych have murky or downright criminal pasts, they know they have to change their image if they want to expand their businesses with the help of western creditsor to raise capital by floating their companies on Western stock exchanges.
The West should push for economic reforms in Ukraine; for business transparency; to clean out the justice system so that western businesses and investors get real protection for their assets without being milked for bribes or swindled by the tax authorities by making any loans contingent on demonstrable improvements in all those areas.
The message should be that Ukraine will only be able to expand into the West of it allows the same conditions to become the norm in Ukraine for Western businessmen as it seeks to exploit in the West.
Failures by the Ukrainian side should prompt immediate and severe use of the stick.
Obviously, Ukraine should also reward good behavior. Yanukovych has been praised for his nuclear initiative during his D.C. trip and those plaudits should be accompanied by a tasty carrot. Apart from loans or financial aid, the West has a whole larder of juicy carrots.
Yanukovych’s declaration about wanting closer ties with the European Union should be taken at face value. Brussels can provide a huge incentive for Ukraine to introduce reforms that will benefit both Western countries and Ukrainians if it clearly outlines a route for EU membership, as long as Kiev adheres to a clearly understood set of criteria.
The time frame may be a long one but that need not mater as long as there is something to aim for. The promise of eventual EU membership has worked wonders for Turkish democracy and its economy for three decades despite the fact no date was ever set.
One of the most important inducements is a more flexible visa regime to Western Europe and America that would stem the bitterness born of the humiliating hurdles placed before rich and poor Ukrainians alike who want to venture out of their country.
Western policy has to be tough towards the new Ukrainian government but it has to be applied judiciously. Moscow gleefully thinks that a Yanukovych presidency will let them, in all but name, to re-incorporate Ukraine into some kind of new empire. Moscow will hold out financial temptations to get its way in Ukraine.
Although Russian gas prices have not been decreased, cheaper gas and other gifts will be offered to bind Ukraine closer to the Kremlin. So tough Western measures on Ukraine have to be tempered with the offer of benefits that do not tilt Kiev too far towards Moscow.
It should be made clear that the years of Western indulgence for a delinquent Kiev are over and Kiev will only receive help and privileges by earning them. The stick has to be used wisely but it does have to be used un-hesitatingly, if necessary.
Sticks are something the likes of Yanukovych and his closest cronies understand. After all many of them have wielded baseball bats while not actually playing the sport.
Moscow Ascending: How Turkey's New Axis With Russia Affects US Interests
We have, in the past year, entered an entirely new dynamic in Eastern Mediterranean and South-East European strategic affairs. We are in a period and a region in which Russia, not the West, is taking the key initiatives and has much of the advantage. This is particularly significant given that Russian policymaking receives scant attention in US and other Western media, and remains as opaque to Western analysts as it was during the Cold War era when Russia was veiled by an Iron Curtain. At least during the Cold War, the West threw its best intellects into attempting to understand Russia and the Soviet Union.
Russia’s recent major thrusts — for a variety of historical, economic, and security reasons — have been to dominate the Caucasus and Northern Tier, the Greater Black Sea Basin, and Central Asia. This has been evidenced particularly by Russia’s successful initiatives to build strategic relations with Turkey and Iran. The profound depth of this transformation cannot be under-estimated, and, along with the stability of the European Union itself (which is inextricably bound to Russia for its energy), vitally affects the fate of South-Eastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean states.
At the same time that this tectonic shift is occurring, US policy toward the Eastern Mediterranean and adjacent lands has, for the past 60 years — perhaps longer — been heavily based on wishful romanticism, ignorance, and an overwhelming and narrow preoccupation with the containment of the now-defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. US policy toward the region continues to be based around a premise of a Soviet threat which no longer exists, but which the US — and for that matter, some in Britain — cannot bring themselves to retire or revise. And by continuing to treat post-Cold War Russia as though it was still the Soviet Union, the US and UK have to a large degree caused Moscow to act in manners contrary to Western interests.
The US-led NATO caused alarm in post-Soviet Russia by moving to bring former Soviet bloc states into NATO, by treating Islamist terrorism in the Caucasus as something Moscow deserved while 9/11 was something the US did not deserve, and so on. The poorly-handled attempted deployments of missile defense systems by the US into Poland, the Czech Republic, and Azerbaijan further alienated Moscow, quite apart from the gratuitous refusal to allow Russia to become part of the West; US tacit or active support for Georgian attempts to seize control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; the US blatant interference in the elections in Georgia, Ukraine, and the Kyrgyz Republic and in creating Kosovo as a supposedly independent state — with attempts to do the same elsewhere — were all further examples of perceived post-Cold War US hostility toward Moscow. There are many other examples of events which forced Moscow to return to a lonely course of action in pursuit of securing its own interests in a hostile world.
Ukraine airline to resume flights on April 18
Ukraine International Airlines plans to resume international flights from Kyiv at 12 p.m. (0900 GMT) on Apr.18, a spokesman for the air company said.
UIA, the biggest Ukrainian international airline, on Saturday cancelled flights from Kyiv to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Rome, London, Vienna, Berlin and Brussels, as well as a number of charter flights
UIA, the biggest Ukrainian international airline, on Saturday cancelled flights from Kyiv to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Rome, London, Vienna, Berlin and Brussels, as well as a number of charter flights
Yanukovych flies to Poland
Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovych left for Krakow to attend the funeral of Polish President Lech Kaczynski, a presidential spokesman said.
Many world leaders have had to miss the funeral later in the day of Kaczynski, who was killed in a plane crash last week, because of a volcanic ash cloud over Europe which has halted almost all flights in northern and central Europe.
"The presidential plane has left for Krakow," a spokeswoman for Yanukovych told Reuters.
Earlier, Ukraine International Airlines said it would resume international flights from Kyiv at 0900 GMT.
Other Ukrainian airlines followed suit, resuming internal flights from other Ukrainian cities.
Many world leaders have had to miss the funeral later in the day of Kaczynski, who was killed in a plane crash last week, because of a volcanic ash cloud over Europe which has halted almost all flights in northern and central Europe.
"The presidential plane has left for Krakow," a spokeswoman for Yanukovych told Reuters.
Earlier, Ukraine International Airlines said it would resume international flights from Kyiv at 0900 GMT.
Other Ukrainian airlines followed suit, resuming internal flights from other Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine's Fractured Opposition
KIEV, Ukraine -- During the four years between the unveiling of secret tapes made by a presidential guard in November 2000 that implicated President Leonid Kuchma, the speaker of parliament, and the security forces in the abduction and murder of an opposition journalist and the 17-day Orange Revolution four years later, the Ukrainian opposition mobilized, increased in strength, and improved its tactics to go on and defeat the authorities' presidential candidate, then-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
International monitoring organizations and Western governments had cried foul and refused to accept the legitimacy of Yanukovych's "win" in the second-round runoff. The Supreme Court annulled the results on December 3, 2004, and called for a rerun later that month, which opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko won.
Fast-tracking the clock forward five years after Yushchenko's largely wasted presidency, and the discredited candidate of 2004, Party of Regions leader Yanukovych, is elected in what international organizations describe as a free election. Yushchenko, the hero of the Orange Revolution, comes in fifth with just 5 percent of the vote, far less than the 44 percent received by incumbent President Leonid Kravchuk in 1994. Both Yushchenko and Kravchuk served only one term.
Kuchma, although severely weakened by the 2000 revelations about his role in Heorhiy Gongadze's murder, went on to serve a second term. Concerns about his slide into authoritarianism only surfaced during that second term (1999-2004). In that respect, Kuchma's presidency differed from that of Yanukovych, who in his first two months in office has already raised concerns about his consolidation of power and his willingness to attempt a second time to impose on Ukraine the "Donetsk model," one that closely resembles Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's nexus of business-politics-government.
Within a month after Yanukovych's election as president in February, the new administration was again accused of backsliding on democracy, and the opposition has branded the April 8 Constitutional Court ruling endorsing the manner in which his coalition was formed by factions and individual defectors a "coup d'etat."
Disunited Opposition
Is the opposition capable of again successfully reversing today's drift to authoritarianism, as it did in the Kuchma era?
Probably not, because today it is more divided and weakened than in the first half of the decade. Ukraine's slide into authoritarianism in the Kuchma era, and Yanukovych's attempt to win power through a rigged election in 2004 were both blocked by a strong and largely united opposition that closed ranks behind Yushchenko.
During Kuchma's second term, the opposition was stronger than today, but nevertheless still split. Ukraine's center-right national democrats have collectively never been able to make up their minds whether they wanted to be in opposition or statists (derzhavnyky). Yushchenko himself always wavered between a grand coalition with the Party of Regions or an "Orange" alliance with Yulia Tymoshenko. This indecisiveness led in the 1990s to a weak opposition that was unable to impede the rise of an oligarchic class.
From 2001 to 2003, Yushchenko never felt comfortable in opposition, and if his government had not been removed in April 2001 by a parliamentary vote of no confidence, he would have loyally served Kuchma until the end of his term, perhaps even becoming his chosen successor. It was only after the failed attempt to poison him in September 2004 that Yushchenko and his Our Ukraine party unequivocally embraced a radical opposition stance, vowing to take to the streets if there was election fraud.
Fraying To Right And Left
Key pro-business leaders in Yushchenko's team, nicknamed the "Dear Friends," preferred a grand coalition with the oligarchs and the Kuchma camp to unity with other opposition forces.
Petro Poroshenko, head of Our Ukraine's 2002 election campaign, defected to Yushchenko only after losing the contest for leadership of the newly formed Party of Regions to Mykola Azarov, then head of the Tax Administration and now prime minister. Poroshenko's Solidarity Party was one of five that had merged to form the Party of Regions in 2001.
Another was Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetskyy's Beautiful Ukraine party; Chernovetskyy supported Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential election. Another member of this group is Yuriy Yekhanurov -- Ukraine's answer to Russia's Boris Nemtsov -- who as head of the State Property Fund managed the privatization process that created the oligarchs who emerged in the late 1990s.
Like Poroshenko and former Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Yekhanurov has always been a staunch opponent of Tymoshenko. After the 2006 elections, Yekhanurov was tasked by Yushchenko with negotiating a grand coalition of Our Ukraine-Party of Regions that was ready to be signed in early June 2006, but fell through.
Ivan Plyushch, although elected in September 2007 as a deputy in Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense (NU-NSO), always refused to join the democratic (Orange) coalition. Plyushch continues to defend the scandalous February 2001 letter (released in the same month that Tymoshenko was arrested on trumped up corruption charges) that he co-signed as parliament speaker with President Kuchma and Prime Minister Yushchenko denouncing the opposition as "fascists."
Yushchenko never defended Tymoshenko while she was in prison, and the Yushchenko national democrats never supported Kuchma's impeachment, unlike Tymoshenko and the Socialists.
Yatsenyuk, leader of the Front for Change party, another virtual center-right party established from the top down in 2008, will unite the so-called Dear Friends in the 2012 parliamentary elections. Yatsenyuk placed fourth in the 2010 election with 7 percent of the vote but, unlike Serhiy Tihipko (who came third with 13 percent), he refused to join the Stability and Reforms coalition and the Azarov government.
Like Our Ukraine, the left were never fully committed to the opposition. The Communist Party (KPU) had joined with oligarchic parliamentary factions to vote no confidence in the Yushchenko government in April 2001. After 2004, the KPU continued its alliance with the oligarchs, joining the 2006-07 Yanukovych and 2010 Azarov coalitions and governments.
In 2003-04, the Socialist Party (SPU) and KPU cooperated with presidential-administration head Viktor Medvedchuk in preparing the constitutional reforms that parliament failed to approve in spring 2004. These were eventually adopted by parliament in December 2004, with only the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) voting against them.
SPU leader Oleksandr Moroz and KPU leader Petro Symonenko did not support a united opposition candidate in the 2004 presidential elections, but instead put forward their own candidates. But Moroz backed Yushchenko in the two second rounds (in exchange for his support for constitutional reforms), while KPU voters backed Yanukovych.
What The Opposition Must Do
Comparing the Kuchma era and the situation today, five conclusions can be drawn.
First, the opposition is weaker today than it was in the four years prior to the Orange Revolution. At the same time, Yanukovych's team is stronger than that of Kuchma.
Kuchma's personal authority and standing were irreparably damaged both at home, as reflected in the defeat of his For a United Ukraine bloc in the 2002 elections, and in the West, where he was shunned because of the Gongadze murder, a scandal over the illicit sale of four Kolchuga radar systems to Iraq, and other evidence the tapes made by presidential guard Mykola Melnychenko yielded of his abuse of office. In 2004, the opposition had just two presidential candidates (Yushchenko and Moroz), while in 2010 the former Orange camp had three times as many.
Second, Tymoshenko is the strongest component of the weaker opposition. But, unlike in the Kuchma era, Tymoshenko is not a parliament deputy, which undercuts her ability to function as opposition leader. She maybe also be less able to unite the opposition than was Yushchenko in 2004.
Third, Yushchenko remains unwaveringly obsessed with, and hostile to, Tymoshenko, unlike in 2001-04 when they joined forces and cooperated. The NU-NSO bloc is more divided today than Our Ukraine was under Kuchma. Meanwhile, the NU-NSO bloc's initial nine parties in 2007 have grown to 13, fracturing the center-right, which fielded multiple Orange candidates in 2010.
Fourth, the lack of a center-left component to the opposition makes it weaker. In 2000-03, the SPU, which then had approximately the same electoral support as the BYuT, was a strong supporter of the opposition.
It was SPU leader Moroz who made public to a shocked parliament in November 2000 the clandestine tape recordings that documented Kuchma's involvement in the murder of Gongadze. The SPU had earlier helped Melnychenko to flee from Ukraine to Prague.
Since 2006-07, the SPU has lost support because Moroz failed to step down as its leader after voters deserted the SPU following its July 2006 defection from the Orange coalition to the Party of Regions. Moroz finished third in the preceding three presidential elections, but only 11th in 2010.
That self-destruction of the SPU permitted the ideologically vacuous Volodymyr Lytvyn bloc to be elected to parliament in 2007 in its place. Following Yanukovych's election as president, the Lytvyn bloc deserted the democratic coalition and joined the pro-Yanukovych Stability and Reforms coalition, a U-turn that resembles the SPU's 2006 defection. The consequences for the Lytvyn bloc will be as defeating in the 2012 elections as for the SPU in 2007.
Fifth, in 2000-03 young people did not identify overwhelmingly with one single opposition force. It was only in 2004 that they became a crucial component of the Yushchenko campaign through the "yellow" and "black" wings of "Pora" (It's Time) and other youth NGOs. In other words, the generation born between when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985 and the disintegration of the USSR six years later emerged as "Generation Orange."
Today the situation is different. Disillusioned by five years of Yushchenko's presidency and infighting among the former Orange Revolution allies, many young Ukrainians have withdrawn from politics, while a minority have been attracted by the extreme right Svoboda (Freedom) Party led by Oleh Tyahnybok. The "Yellow" Pora wing evolved into another virtual center-right political party. It failed to enter parliament in 2006, but succeeded in 2007 as one of nine parties in NU-NSO.
The Constitutional Court's recent ruling legalizing the new coalition effectively precludes early elections in the fall. The opposition therefore has two years to plan, mobilize, and develop new tactics and strategies before the next parliamentary elections in September 2012.
The 2012 parliament will be very different from the two parliaments elected after the Orange Revolution in 2006 and 2007. In 2012, gone will be the KPU, the Lytvyn bloc, and mega-center-right blocs such as NU-NSO. In will be the Party of Regions and BYuT, competing again for first and second places, followed in third and fourth places by new liberal political forces (Yatsenyuk, Tihipko), with the nationalists (Yushchenko, Tyahnybok) possibly entering parliament in last place.
Taras Kuzio is a senior fellow of Ukrainian studies at the University of Toronto and editor of "Ukraine Analyst." The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RLwhere this article first appeared.
International monitoring organizations and Western governments had cried foul and refused to accept the legitimacy of Yanukovych's "win" in the second-round runoff. The Supreme Court annulled the results on December 3, 2004, and called for a rerun later that month, which opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko won.
Fast-tracking the clock forward five years after Yushchenko's largely wasted presidency, and the discredited candidate of 2004, Party of Regions leader Yanukovych, is elected in what international organizations describe as a free election. Yushchenko, the hero of the Orange Revolution, comes in fifth with just 5 percent of the vote, far less than the 44 percent received by incumbent President Leonid Kravchuk in 1994. Both Yushchenko and Kravchuk served only one term.
Kuchma, although severely weakened by the 2000 revelations about his role in Heorhiy Gongadze's murder, went on to serve a second term. Concerns about his slide into authoritarianism only surfaced during that second term (1999-2004). In that respect, Kuchma's presidency differed from that of Yanukovych, who in his first two months in office has already raised concerns about his consolidation of power and his willingness to attempt a second time to impose on Ukraine the "Donetsk model," one that closely resembles Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's nexus of business-politics-government.
Within a month after Yanukovych's election as president in February, the new administration was again accused of backsliding on democracy, and the opposition has branded the April 8 Constitutional Court ruling endorsing the manner in which his coalition was formed by factions and individual defectors a "coup d'etat."
Disunited Opposition
Is the opposition capable of again successfully reversing today's drift to authoritarianism, as it did in the Kuchma era?
Probably not, because today it is more divided and weakened than in the first half of the decade. Ukraine's slide into authoritarianism in the Kuchma era, and Yanukovych's attempt to win power through a rigged election in 2004 were both blocked by a strong and largely united opposition that closed ranks behind Yushchenko.
During Kuchma's second term, the opposition was stronger than today, but nevertheless still split. Ukraine's center-right national democrats have collectively never been able to make up their minds whether they wanted to be in opposition or statists (derzhavnyky). Yushchenko himself always wavered between a grand coalition with the Party of Regions or an "Orange" alliance with Yulia Tymoshenko. This indecisiveness led in the 1990s to a weak opposition that was unable to impede the rise of an oligarchic class.
From 2001 to 2003, Yushchenko never felt comfortable in opposition, and if his government had not been removed in April 2001 by a parliamentary vote of no confidence, he would have loyally served Kuchma until the end of his term, perhaps even becoming his chosen successor. It was only after the failed attempt to poison him in September 2004 that Yushchenko and his Our Ukraine party unequivocally embraced a radical opposition stance, vowing to take to the streets if there was election fraud.
Fraying To Right And Left
Key pro-business leaders in Yushchenko's team, nicknamed the "Dear Friends," preferred a grand coalition with the oligarchs and the Kuchma camp to unity with other opposition forces.
Petro Poroshenko, head of Our Ukraine's 2002 election campaign, defected to Yushchenko only after losing the contest for leadership of the newly formed Party of Regions to Mykola Azarov, then head of the Tax Administration and now prime minister. Poroshenko's Solidarity Party was one of five that had merged to form the Party of Regions in 2001.
Another was Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetskyy's Beautiful Ukraine party; Chernovetskyy supported Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential election. Another member of this group is Yuriy Yekhanurov -- Ukraine's answer to Russia's Boris Nemtsov -- who as head of the State Property Fund managed the privatization process that created the oligarchs who emerged in the late 1990s.
Like Poroshenko and former Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Yekhanurov has always been a staunch opponent of Tymoshenko. After the 2006 elections, Yekhanurov was tasked by Yushchenko with negotiating a grand coalition of Our Ukraine-Party of Regions that was ready to be signed in early June 2006, but fell through.
Ivan Plyushch, although elected in September 2007 as a deputy in Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense (NU-NSO), always refused to join the democratic (Orange) coalition. Plyushch continues to defend the scandalous February 2001 letter (released in the same month that Tymoshenko was arrested on trumped up corruption charges) that he co-signed as parliament speaker with President Kuchma and Prime Minister Yushchenko denouncing the opposition as "fascists."
Yushchenko never defended Tymoshenko while she was in prison, and the Yushchenko national democrats never supported Kuchma's impeachment, unlike Tymoshenko and the Socialists.
Yatsenyuk, leader of the Front for Change party, another virtual center-right party established from the top down in 2008, will unite the so-called Dear Friends in the 2012 parliamentary elections. Yatsenyuk placed fourth in the 2010 election with 7 percent of the vote but, unlike Serhiy Tihipko (who came third with 13 percent), he refused to join the Stability and Reforms coalition and the Azarov government.
Like Our Ukraine, the left were never fully committed to the opposition. The Communist Party (KPU) had joined with oligarchic parliamentary factions to vote no confidence in the Yushchenko government in April 2001. After 2004, the KPU continued its alliance with the oligarchs, joining the 2006-07 Yanukovych and 2010 Azarov coalitions and governments.
In 2003-04, the Socialist Party (SPU) and KPU cooperated with presidential-administration head Viktor Medvedchuk in preparing the constitutional reforms that parliament failed to approve in spring 2004. These were eventually adopted by parliament in December 2004, with only the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) voting against them.
SPU leader Oleksandr Moroz and KPU leader Petro Symonenko did not support a united opposition candidate in the 2004 presidential elections, but instead put forward their own candidates. But Moroz backed Yushchenko in the two second rounds (in exchange for his support for constitutional reforms), while KPU voters backed Yanukovych.
What The Opposition Must Do
Comparing the Kuchma era and the situation today, five conclusions can be drawn.
First, the opposition is weaker today than it was in the four years prior to the Orange Revolution. At the same time, Yanukovych's team is stronger than that of Kuchma.
Kuchma's personal authority and standing were irreparably damaged both at home, as reflected in the defeat of his For a United Ukraine bloc in the 2002 elections, and in the West, where he was shunned because of the Gongadze murder, a scandal over the illicit sale of four Kolchuga radar systems to Iraq, and other evidence the tapes made by presidential guard Mykola Melnychenko yielded of his abuse of office. In 2004, the opposition had just two presidential candidates (Yushchenko and Moroz), while in 2010 the former Orange camp had three times as many.
Second, Tymoshenko is the strongest component of the weaker opposition. But, unlike in the Kuchma era, Tymoshenko is not a parliament deputy, which undercuts her ability to function as opposition leader. She maybe also be less able to unite the opposition than was Yushchenko in 2004.
Third, Yushchenko remains unwaveringly obsessed with, and hostile to, Tymoshenko, unlike in 2001-04 when they joined forces and cooperated. The NU-NSO bloc is more divided today than Our Ukraine was under Kuchma. Meanwhile, the NU-NSO bloc's initial nine parties in 2007 have grown to 13, fracturing the center-right, which fielded multiple Orange candidates in 2010.
Fourth, the lack of a center-left component to the opposition makes it weaker. In 2000-03, the SPU, which then had approximately the same electoral support as the BYuT, was a strong supporter of the opposition.
It was SPU leader Moroz who made public to a shocked parliament in November 2000 the clandestine tape recordings that documented Kuchma's involvement in the murder of Gongadze. The SPU had earlier helped Melnychenko to flee from Ukraine to Prague.
Since 2006-07, the SPU has lost support because Moroz failed to step down as its leader after voters deserted the SPU following its July 2006 defection from the Orange coalition to the Party of Regions. Moroz finished third in the preceding three presidential elections, but only 11th in 2010.
That self-destruction of the SPU permitted the ideologically vacuous Volodymyr Lytvyn bloc to be elected to parliament in 2007 in its place. Following Yanukovych's election as president, the Lytvyn bloc deserted the democratic coalition and joined the pro-Yanukovych Stability and Reforms coalition, a U-turn that resembles the SPU's 2006 defection. The consequences for the Lytvyn bloc will be as defeating in the 2012 elections as for the SPU in 2007.
Fifth, in 2000-03 young people did not identify overwhelmingly with one single opposition force. It was only in 2004 that they became a crucial component of the Yushchenko campaign through the "yellow" and "black" wings of "Pora" (It's Time) and other youth NGOs. In other words, the generation born between when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985 and the disintegration of the USSR six years later emerged as "Generation Orange."
Today the situation is different. Disillusioned by five years of Yushchenko's presidency and infighting among the former Orange Revolution allies, many young Ukrainians have withdrawn from politics, while a minority have been attracted by the extreme right Svoboda (Freedom) Party led by Oleh Tyahnybok. The "Yellow" Pora wing evolved into another virtual center-right political party. It failed to enter parliament in 2006, but succeeded in 2007 as one of nine parties in NU-NSO.
The Constitutional Court's recent ruling legalizing the new coalition effectively precludes early elections in the fall. The opposition therefore has two years to plan, mobilize, and develop new tactics and strategies before the next parliamentary elections in September 2012.
The 2012 parliament will be very different from the two parliaments elected after the Orange Revolution in 2006 and 2007. In 2012, gone will be the KPU, the Lytvyn bloc, and mega-center-right blocs such as NU-NSO. In will be the Party of Regions and BYuT, competing again for first and second places, followed in third and fourth places by new liberal political forces (Yatsenyuk, Tihipko), with the nationalists (Yushchenko, Tyahnybok) possibly entering parliament in last place.
Taras Kuzio is a senior fellow of Ukrainian studies at the University of Toronto and editor of "Ukraine Analyst." The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RLwhere this article first appeared.
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