Western sanctions can bring Russia long-awaited infinite relief

Imports of food for the Russian market have become commonplace. Russia imports more goods than it produces, and this trend lasts for years. The world's largest country with rich agricultural history has become virtually dependent on other states, including even tiny European countries that one can hardly find on the map. What will happen to Russia if trade relations are interrupted due to sanctions? Since the end of the 20th century, especially after joining the WTO, Russia's dependence on foreign food has been growing. Reportedly, Russia's imports account for about 80 percent of all available goods, including those that foreign companies produce in our country and those that use foreign-made ingredients in their production. Russia can not even provide itself with meat and milk. Is it really the case? What would happen if the West used drastic measures against Russia that could result in the deterioration of trade relations with the EU and the U.S.? Assistant Professor for Technology Trade Transactions of the Russian Academy of Foreign Trade at the Ministry for Economic Development, Andrei Golubchik, told Pravda.Ru that Russia will not be able to quickly replace imported products with the ones of its own production. "We have enough grain, but the quality of this grain will not let anyone produce premium pasta from it. Russian sorts of grain are not suitable for that, although we can make very good bread from it. We have been providing ourselves with poultry to the fullest. If we take a look at the near future and assume that the state will slowly but surely turn to beef and dairy cattle, then in a year or two we will be able to provide ourselves with Russian-made beef, pork and dairy products. Today, unfortunately, we can not do without imports, - says Andrei Golubchik. - But, thank God, it is not 1938 or 1951. There is fine beef in Argentina and Australia. If Australia joins the sanctions against Russia, Argentina all not - the Argentinians will be happy to sell. Transportation costs will be higher, and it will affect the price, but there are no options here." Generally, Russia can buy meat from the friendly Brazil, which shares BRICS membership with Russia and remains one of the largest suppliers of meat products to Russia. As for dairy and other animal products, including meat, Russia's closest partner is Belarus, an ally in the Customs Union, which borders on western territories of the Russian Federation and sells products at low prices. "Our companies consume frozen meat in blocks, which they use to make sausage products, - the head of the Moscow Department for Trade and Services, Alexei Nemeryuk said. - They are BRICS countries. They have been our partners for quite some time, and we buy this meat from them. Clearly, we had Polish bacon, which was famous for its quality in the industry, but we found a replacement for the product. Speaking of meat, Russia can use the help of Belarus. As for pork and poultry - Russia does not need to import these." As for fruits and vegetables, then, the official said, it was decided to raise subsidies for greenhouses and accelerate the development of poultry and fish production. If there are not enough products for one particular sector of the food industry, then Russia can focus on the production of CIS countries or far-foreign countries. "The situation with fruit and berries is worse. We receive up to 80 percent of berries and fruits from Europe, but it is possible to replace our partners here too. Serbia is ready to supply Russia with berries. Serbia is a large supplier of raspberry and blueberry," says Alexey Nemeryuk. Meanwhile, Andrei Golubchik said that the Russian market had no segments that would be painfully dependent on foreign supplies. The only unpleasant moment that may occur for the Russian economy because of tougher sanctions is connected with the high-tech industry. Still, Russia may find another way for the procurement of necessary high-tech machinery and equipment, for example, through China, which refused to participate in the ongoing campaign against Russian. "There will be workarounds for it. The Soviet Union continuously lived under the conditions of economic sanctions, however, IBM computers worked in the places, where they had to work at Soviet enterprises. Yes, they were more expensive, they had to be imported via Bulgaria or Romania, but it was possible to import them. I am not at all concerned about the absence of some food products, but I am concerned about high-tech equipment," the expert concludes. To crown it all, it is not profitable for other countries of the world to take the Russian sales market away from their own companies. If it happens, the Europeans will have to find new buyers for their fruits and berries, and Bush's legs will have to find another direction to run to. This is still a big question, who is going to lose more, should trade relations be suspended.

One of Russia's wealthiest men sells Yo-Mobile project for 1 euro

The Yo-Mobile project of Russian entrepreneur Mikhail Prokhorov, which he announced back in 2010, has been actually closed. Company Yo-Engineering handed over all documentation and rights for the development of the body and chassis of the vehicle to FGUP NAMI (federal state unitary enterprise). Prokhorov closed the deal for the symbolic amount of one euro. One is left to wonder what reasons are hidden behind such a deal. The project of Russia's first-ever hybrid vehicle Yo-Mobile equipped with gas and petrol engine and electric transmission laid the foundation for the establishment of joint venture Yo-Auto. In the company, Prokhorov's ONEXIM Group owned 51 percent. It was originally planned to build about 20,000 cars a year. Moreover, the number of preliminary orders for the purchase of the Yo-Mobile was above the plan. Yet, the plan failed to realize. " As I see it, the biggest reason here is an economic one. Starting automobile production from scratch, with no history of production in general is very hard, - chief editor of News of Automobile Business Magazine, Roman Gulyaev said - The second reason as I think is that Prokhorov chose not the right partners for this venture ... Actually, his partner in this business was quite a decent, ambitious, but, in my opinion, not quite experienced company in terms of production. The company has built several trucks before and has done nothing special from the standpoint of production." "I think that the reformatting of the Yo-Mobile project is primarily due to the fact that economy is having hard times now, as I think. And the fate of Yo-Mobile is primarily concerned with this, rather than project-mongering of the initiator of the project, or other factors, journalist, member of the Writers' Union of Russia and the Union of Cinematographers of Russia Yury Geiko told Pravda.Ru. - I think that with a change in not only economic but also political situation, which resulted in changes in economy, people realize what there is ahead of them. First and foremost, it goes about the sanctions in connection with the issue of the Crimea. People understand that there may be hard times for Russia ahead. Everyone understands that - from common people to businessmen and CEOs of automobile companies." It is worth noting that representatives of the company that initiated the Yo-Mobile project, Mikhail Prokhorov's ONEXIM Group, noted that the move was primarily based on economic reasons. The decision to give the project to the state is connected with the fact that against the backdrop of declining demand, the efficiency of the project became not obvious. As a result, Prokhorov, whose managers have already collected more than 200,000 pre-orders, finally decided to hand over the technology of the project that he kicked off with fanfare a few years ago to the State Research Automobile and Engine Institute (NAMI), practically free of charge. One euro is not a fee. In general, all experts, who deal with the Russian car market, believe that implementing the project profitably for the production of the vehicle on the stated conditions had become impossible. According to Kommersant, this is presumably connected with increased costs as a result of the growing euro rate, which led to the increase of the final price of the car. Experts of Yo-Auto explained the move to deliver the project to NAMI. As it turns out, patriotic considerations play a significant role here. The technology delivered to this well-known domestic organization may then be widely used in further developments of both domestic passenger, freight and public transport. Along with the technology, it was decided to sell the production facility for Yo-Mobile, the construction of which had started in St. Petersburg, for serious money, though. This production already has all necessary infrastructure, although it lacks production lines. But still, this is not going to be sold for one euro. The ambitious, yet quite pragmatic businessman Mikhail Prokhorov had been trying to realize his idea in practice for four years. The press would refer to the project as "people's car." The project received media attention back in early 2010. Despite the funny name of the project, it attracted serious business interest. In December 2010, Prokhorov introduced three models of the hybrid car at once: a hatchback, a van and a cross-coupe. A little later, they started to take pre-orders for the vehicle online. The car was going to be sold at quite a reasonable, "people's price" - 350-450 thousand rubles ($10-11,5K, depending on the version). Serial production at the plant in St. Petersburg was supposed to be launched at the end of 2012. However, when the time to produce the car came, it turned out that "something went wrong." The real serial production of the Yo-Mobile was pushed back to late 2014 or early 2015. The delay was explained with alleged problems with a U.S. contractor for the production of the body of the car. In general, there is no policy there really - there is only pure economics. In the current economic situation, amid the sharp weakening of automotive market conditions, implementing the project of the Yo-Mobile on the previously announced terms, to receive profit, became impossible. No one will buy an original car if it costs a million rubles or more. However, one can find connections with political events in the story still. t turns out that the party that Mikhail Prokhorov founded - Civil Platform - does not consider the project of the hybrid car a failure, Prokhorov's party secretary said. The businessman quit business even before the Duma elections in 2011 in accordance with the law, and all ONEXIM's project are not supposed to be related to him directly. Well, it would have been a remarkable PR stunt: Yo-Mobile sounds great, no matter what skeptics may say.

Russian bear and Chinese dragon shake paws

The Russian-Chinese cooperation has been gaining momentum in light of Western sanctions against Russia. China supported Russia, when Western countries launched an anti-Russian campaign. Now, the U.S. may come across a powerful competitor in the face of a union between such large countries as China and Russia. A couple of days ago, citing a source in diplomatic circles, Russian mass media reported that U.S. authorities failed to persuade the Chinese leadership to impose sanctions against Russia, even though US officials did their best to try. The attempts of the Obama administration to convince the Chinese leadership of the need to put pressure on Russia failed to succeed, although the talks reportedly started in the beginning of March. Meanwhile, the talks on gas supplies between Russia and China came to the final stage. The only question that remains unsolved is the basic price for gas. For China, switching to natural gas is a highly serious problem, as the use of coal took the country to an environmental catastrophe. The whole world remembers the photos and footage of Beijing shrouded in suffocating smog. For Russia, searching for new markets is also a very important issue, especially in light of recent events and the strong determination of the EU to minimize energy dependence on Russia. The gas contract is to be signed in May, when Russian President Vladimir Putin comes to visit Beijing. Experts do not rule out a possibility that Gazprom would agree to grant gas production access for Chinese companies, at least symbolically. Actually, the Chinese are much more interested in this aspect than in the price issue. For the time being, though, economists can only speculate on the outcome of the negotiations between Russia and China. "Russia is a major supplier of energy resources and hydrocarbons to China, so for China, cooperation with Russia is essential. On the one hand, China needs to expand oil and gas shipments. On the other hand, China seeks cheaper prices for the Russian products, - Professor and Chairman of the Department for Oriental Studied of the Higher School for Economics, Alexei Maslov said. - in this case, China will now obtain a trump card, given gas problems in the western direction. China's another interest is about developing even closer strategic cooperation with Russia in the defense industry. China needs to significantly enhance its armed forces. It is no coincidence that soon after the West introduced sanctions against Russia, China proposed to buy a large batch of Russian Superjet aircraft, although there was no official confirmation to that. In general, however, China is obviously interested in expanding the technological cooperation with Russia." Russia, however, is interested in attracting investment to the Far East, where it is planned to develop industrial parks. Should Chinese investors pay attention to the Far East region of Russia, it will be possible to solve the employment problem in this remote region. As Alexei Maslov said, industrial parks do not require a large number of people, but they do need well-educated population and good organization of such special economic zones. "We in the Far East need investment, of course, the Chinese could do it, but they spend their money very carefully. They need to know exactly what they will get from this, - Ph.D., Chief Scientific Officer at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Ludmila Boni said. - Of course, they would like to use their work force, and we do not have a lot of that workforce there. If we had good laws that would regulate all this normally, it would be very good to use the investment and workforce to develop our economic potential in the Far East. However, it does not work yet on our end." As for the cooperation in the field of defense, it is unlikely that the Russian military-industrial complex needs that. Russia's prime goal here is to show itself as a country capable of acting on both western and eastern directions. "If Russia is completely cut off from all imports, new equipment and so on, we will be able to take something in China, and they will be happy to give it to us. They already have it all. With regard to agriculture, China is interested in that too - the Chinese do not have enough arable land. Therefore, China is interested in expanding its economic potential by leasing and developing the land of adjacent states. I know that in the Far East they rent large plots of arable land. They already rent more than 420 thousand hectares from Russia. This is what they are interested in," Ludmila Boni said. Thus, one can see that the potential for cooperation between the two countries is quite broad. Once the two countries come to an agreement on the gas issue, they will give it all a start.

Russia finds Obama's new move revolting

The U.S. imposed new sanctions against Russian companies and certain individuals. The new list includes, in particular, President of the state-run oil company Rosneft, Igor Sechin, and CEO of the state corporation Russian Technologies, Sergei Chemezov. The list also included deputy head of the Kremlin administration Vyacheslav Volodin, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak and Russian presidential envoy in the Crimea, Oleg Belaventsev. The sanctions will also affect chairman of the Duma Committee for Foreign Affairs, Alexei Pushkov, head of the Federal Security Service, Yevgeny Murov, and 17 Russian companies. All of these companies are either controlled by Gennady Timchenko, Arkady and Boris Rotenbergs, or bank "Russia." The list of sanctioned companies includes several banks, including Ivestkapitalbank, Sobinbank and SMP Bank. Earlier on Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama announced the expansion of the sanctions list, although he did not clarify any details about it. Obama noted that Washington would publish more detailed information later during the day. According to Obama, these measures will not directly affect Russian President Vladimir Putin. The new U.S. sanctions are said to affect Russian-led activity in relation to Ukraine. Obama stated that the United States may expand its sanctions against Russia even further, adding that they can relate to the banking and defense sectors of the Russian economy. According to the American president, his administration has already succeeded in isolating Russia internationally. Furthermore, the US has managed to mobilize the international community to put pressure on Moscow. Obama believes that this method of influence is more effective than, for example, a move to supply weapons to Ukraine. Soon after Obama's announcement, it was said that the European Union was also ready to expand its own black list against 15 Russian citizens. For the time being, it goes about individual visa and financial sanctions, although Brussels may impose economic sanctions against several sectors of the Russian economy in the future. Previously, the U.S. introduced sanctions against 27 Russian officials in March 2014, amid the escalating conflict in Ukraine. Washington officials blamed the Russian Federation for the growing tensions. In particular, the United States considered that Moscow's consent to include the Crimea in the structure of the Russian Federation was a violation of Ukraine's integrity. Noteworthy, the Crimean Peninsula became a part of Russia as a result of the local referendum, in which nearly all residents voted to reunite with Russia (the peninsula was given away to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954). Simultaneously, the European Union introduced visa and financial sanctions against 33 Russian officials. Moscow found the new move of the United States revolting. "It shows that Washington does not understand anything about what is happening in Ukraine. This is a distorting mirror of foreign policy, rather than a responsible approach to the situation. Every word used in the statement from White House Press Secretary Jay Carney suggests that the U.S. has completely lost the sense of reality and deliberately tries to exacerbate the crisis. In the U.S., they patronage the forces that are not at all ready to take urgent steps in terms of federalization and other measures that should be taken to ensure the recovery of the evolutionary development of this country. The steps that these forces take can only take the country to new clashes. Russia will respond to the US, of course. We are confident that this response will be a painful one for Washington. No one has the right to talk to Russia in the language of sanctions. Attempts to dictate something to us or put ultimatums will come back to those who do it," Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation said

Ukraine Crisis: Kharkiv Mayor Hennadiy Kernes Shot

KHARKIV, Ukraine -- The mayor of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine has been shot in the back and critically wounded amid continuing unrest in the region. Hennadiy Kernes was recovering after a two-hour operation to repair damage to the chest and abdomen, but his life remained in danger, his office said. Monday also saw pro-Russian separatists seize a local government building in Kostyantynivka, a town to the south. The US has meanwhile expanded sanctions to include targets linked to President Vladimir Putin's "inner circle". The list includes seven new individuals and 17 companies. The European Union is also expected to announce new sanctions. Western nations accuse Moscow of supporting separatist gunmen who are occupying official buildings in cities across eastern Ukraine. The separatists continue to hold seven Western military observers who were seized last week in the region. Mr Kernes used to be a supporter of the former pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych. He then dropped his support for the ousted president in favour of a united Ukraine. He has been described as a "mini-oligarch" - a successful businessman wealthy enough to launch a career in politics. He has been accused of starting his business career as an organised crime boss, a claim he denied while acknowledging that he was once jailed for fraud - a minor offence "partly fabricated" by his enemies, he insisted. Kharkiv was also the scene of clashes on Sunday when football fans marching for a united Ukraine scuffled with pro-Russia supporters. The authorities in Kharkiv said several people were injured. On Monday morning, gunmen wearing uniforms with no insignias moved into the local administrative building in Kostyantynivka and raised the flag of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk Republic". They were also reported to be in control of the police station in Kostyantynivka, which is located between the town of Sloviansk and the city of Donetsk, both also controlled by separatists. US President Barack Obama confirmed the stepping up of sanctions against Russia, which he said was part of a "calibrated effort" to change Moscow's behaviour in Ukraine, during a visit to the Philippines. He said the measures were in response to Moscow's failure to uphold an international accord aimed at peacefully resolving the Ukraine crisis. A White House statement said the new targets were "seven Russian government officials, including two members of President Putin's inner circle, who will be subject to an asset freeze and a US visa ban, and 17 companies linked to Putin's inner circle, which will be subject to an asset freeze". Mr Obama said the sanctions were not aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin personally. "The goal is to change his calculus with respect to how the current actions that he's engaging in could have an adverse impact on the Russian economy over the long haul," he said. Meanwhile, ambassadors from the 28 EU member states are meeting in Brussels to agree new sanctions against Russia. The US and EU already have assets freezes and travel bans in place targeting a number of Russian individuals and firms accused of playing a part in the annexation of Crimea last month. Europe correspondent Chris Morris says it is expected that the ambassadors will add another 15 people in positions of power to the list of those to whom sanctions apply. Our correspondent says the White House wants a show of unity from the US and Europe, but there is little consensus within the EU at the moment for implementing broader economic sanctions against Russia. Eight foreign observers - who were operating under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) - were led into Sloviansk town hall by masked gunmen and shown to the media on Sunday. German monitor Col Axel Schneider, who spoke for the group, stressed they were not NATO officers - contrary to claims made by the separatists - nor armed fighters, but diplomats in uniform. Later, one of the group - a Swede - was freed for medical reasons. The fate of five Ukrainian military officers accompanying the mission is unknown.

French FM Warns Of 'Incalculable Consequences' In Ukraine

PARIS, France -- France has warned of "incalculable consequences" if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, calling on Russia and on pro-Russian rebels in the former Soviet republic to de-escalate the crisis. "The situation is very worrying," Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on French television. "When people are whipped into a frenzy and incidents proliferate, they can always boil over with incalculable consequences," he said on the eve of a meeting at which EU ambassadors will consider new sanctions against Moscow. "It's not a question of going to war with Russia, that makes no sense. We must appeal for a de-escalation, in particular by the Russians and the pro-Russians" in Ukraine, he added. Mr Fabius said: "Obviously we have to say, in particular to the Russians, that each country's sovereignty must be respected. We respect Russian sovereignty the Russians should respect Ukrainian sovereignty." The French minister said that ambassadors from the European Union's 28 member states meeting in Brussels tomorrow will "prepare a new set of sanctions (against Moscow), the Americans are expected to reveal a new set of sanctions, and if things get even worse, there could be a third phase". Meanwhile, pro-Russian separatists seized control of the offices of regional state television in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, a Reuters reporter outside the building said. The reporter said four separatists in masks, with truncheons and shields, were standing at the entrance to the building controlling access, while more separatists in camouflage fatigues could be seen inside. Earlier, just one of eight Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe inspectors held by rebels in the eastern Ukrainian town of Slaviansk has been released. Two negotiators and the freed Swedish military inspector boarded a white car with an OSCE logo on it and drove away without any comment to reporters. Earlier in the day the leader of the international observers detained by the pro-Russian separatists said that all the group were in good health. However, he added that they were anxious to be allowed to go home soon. Appearing in public for the first time since they were held three days ago, seven officers from the observer team and their translator were brought into a room of waiting journalists in the separatist-held city administration building. Guards in camouflage fatigues and balaclavas, carrying Kalashnikov rifles, were also in the room as journalists spoke to the observers. Colonel Axel Schneider, who was leading the observer mission, said the group came to Slaviansk without weapons and were there strictly in line with their mandate under OSCE rules, to carry out military verification work. "Since yesterday we've been in a more comfortable room with heating. We have daylight, and an air conditioner." Col Schneider, who had a shaven head, a closely-cropped beard and was wearing a plaid button-down shirt, told reporters he had "not been touched," and that there had been no physical mistreatment of the group. The group sat side by side at a long table in front of the reporters, looking sombre and serious, but otherwise well. "All the European officers are in good health and no one is sick," Col Schneider said. He said the separatist de factor mayor of Slaviansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, had guaranteed the group's safety. He said he believed the mayor's promise. Mr Ponomaryov appeared with the detained men at the news conference. "We have no indication when we will be sent home to our countries," Col Schneider said. "We wish from the bottom of our hearts to go back to our nations as soon and as quickly as possible." Elsewhere, two OSCE monitors were held briefly at a checkpoint in eastern Ukraine before Ukrainian police secured their release, a spokeswoman for the pan-European security body said. "Two team members were held for a short time at the administrative building there. Local police units made it possible for the two members of the monitoring mission to leave the building unharmed," the spokeswoman told AFP. The incident happened at the Yenakyeve checkpoint near Donetsk. The two are part of a Special Monitoring Mission run by the OSCE currently comprising 122 civilians based in 10 locations plus local staff. Earlier today, US President Barack Obama said new international sanctions set to come into force against Russia would send a message that it must stop its "provocation" in eastern Ukraine. "It is important for us to take further steps sending a message to Russia that these kinds of destabilising activities taking place in Ukraine has to stop," Mr Obama said at a press conference in Malaysia. He was speaking a day after G7 nations said that they would impose new sanctions on Russia within days, accusing the government in Moscow of doing nothing to honour an agreement forged in Geneva aimed at easing tensions in Ukraine. "So long as Russia continues down a path of provocation rather than trying to resolve this issue peacefully and de-escalate it, there are going to be consequences and those consequences will continue to grow," Mr Obama said. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk claimed Russia had violated his country's airspace seven times overnight Friday with an aim "to provoke" Ukraine into starting a war. US Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that Washington was concerned about "provocative" troop movements along Russia's border with Ukraine and its support for the separatists, which he said "are undermining stability, security and unity in Ukraine". Mr Yatsenyuk cut short a visit to the Vatican as concern grew that the tens of thousands of Russian troops conducting military drills on the border could soon be ordered to invade. But Russia denied any transgression by its warplanes, with Mr Lavrov calling for "urgent measures" to calm the crisis, which has plunged East-West relations to their lowest point since the Cold War. A Western diplomat warned: "We no longer exclude a Russian military intervention in Ukraine in the coming days." The diplomatic source noted that Russia's UN envoy, Vitaly Churkin, "has been recalled urgently to Moscow" for consultations.

Ukraine: Russian Troop Concentration May Be Prelude To Invasion

Ukraine's government says it fears a concentration of Russian troops on the countries' border could be the prelude to an invasion. Deputy Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky issued the warning Friday at the United Nations, saying that his country faces a possible Russian invasion "at any moment" and vowing that Ukraine would defend itself. Concerns about Russia's intentions, meanwhile, prompted interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Saturday to shorten his visit to Rome, where he was received by Pope Francis. Russian military activity on its side of the border was slightly less intense on Saturday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Koval acknowledged, although he said Russian troops had moved to within 2-3 kilometers (1.2-1.8 miles) of the frontier. "Four IL-76 transport planes flew along our border at midday, but did not cross at any moment" to the Ukrainian side, Koval said at a press conference. He said the troop movement may also be aimed at intimidating the Ukrainian government into halt its "anti-terrorist operation" against pro-Russian separatists in the country's southeast. "I should say that the anti-terrorist operation is continuing, albeit not at a rapid pace," Koval added. Ukrainian forces did not undertake actions Saturday against separatist militants entrenched in Slovyansk, a stronghold of a pro-Russian uprising against the government in Kiev. Militants in that city seized seven Western military observers (three Germans, a Pole, a Dane, a Swede and a Czech), five Ukrainian officials and the driver of the bus in which they were riding on Friday. The militants say the group from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe was "detained" as suspected NATO spies. Ukrainian acting President Olexandr Turchynov, for his part, did not hesitate to accuse Russia of being behind the "kidnapping" of the Western military observers. "This crime could not have been committed without the direct authorization or order of the Russian government, which coordinates and supports terrorists who occupy buildings, take hostages, torture and kill people," Turchynov was quoted as saying by his press office. Russia's Foreign Ministry said Saturday in Moscow that it was taking measures to "resolve the situation" of the detained Western military observers. It accused the Ukrainian authorities of responsibility for the detentions, saying they should have previously "arranged issues related to the permanence, activity and safety of the observers in regions where they do not control the situation and where they have launched a military operation against the inhabitants of their own country." The rising tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border prompted the G7 group of developed nations to impose new sanctions on Russia for allegedly violating a peace deal reached earlier this month in Geneva by continuing to support pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine. The European Union also will hold a meeting Monday to weigh the possibility of new sanctions on Russia. Moscow, for its part, denies provoking unrest in eastern Ukraine but has warned its neighbor not to use force against separatist militants in that region. Long-simmering tensions between pro-European western Ukraine and the country's eastern region, which has close ties with Russia, were exacerbated by the ouster in late February of President Viktor Yanukovych, a Kremlin ally. In the wake of his removal from office, Moscow sent troops to the strategic region of Crimea. It subsequently annexed that peninsula last month - a move the West considers illegitimate - after its mostly Russian-speaking population voted in a referendum to break off from the Ukraine and rejoin Russia. Moscow says Yanukovych was removed from office on Feb. 22 by far-right Ukrainian nationalists and that it moved to protect ethnic Russians and Russian interests in Crimea following that development. The crisis that led to Yanukovych's ouster erupted at the end of November, when the Ukrainian president backed away from plans to ink a pact with the European Union and instead signed a $15 billion financial-aid package with Russia.

Ukraine Separatists Offer To Exchange OSCE Captives For Prisoners

DONETSK, Ukraine -- Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have offered to release eight captive international observers in a prisoner exchange, as Western governments prepared new sanctions against Moscow. The government in Kiev blamed Russia for what it called the kidnapping of the monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The separatists said they suspected the observers of spying; Ukraine said they were being used as human shields. The Group of Seven major economies announced earlier that they had agreed to impose more sanctions on Russia, which they believe is bent on destabilising its former Soviet neighbour and possibly grabbing more territory. Diplomats said the United States and the European Union were expected to unveil new punitive action against Russian individuals from Monday. Russia denies orchestrating a campaign by pro-Moscow militants who have seized control of public buildings across eastern Ukraine. It accuses the Kiev government of whipping up tensions by sending troops to root out the separatists. The OSCE sent more monitors today to seek the release of those detained in Slaviansk, a city under the separatists’ control. Those being held are from Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Poland and the Czech Republic. Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, de facto mayor of Slaviansk, told reporters: “They were soldiers on our territory without our permission, of course they are prisoners.” He said the separatists were ready to exchange the captured monitors for fellow rebels now in the custody of the Ukrainian authorities. “Prisoners have always been coins to exchange during times of war. It’s an international practice,” he said. Ukraine’s state security service said the OSCE observers - part of a German-led military verification mission deployed since early March at Kiev’s request - were being held “in inhuman conditions” and that one needed medical help. A spokeswoman for the Vienna-based organisation, of which Russia is a member, said the OSCE had been in contact with “all sides” since late last night but had had no direct contact with the observers. The Russian foreign ministry said it was working to resolve the crisis, but blamed Kiev for failing to ensure the OSCE mission’s safety in “areas where the authorities do not control the situation and where a military operation against residents of their own country has been unleashed”. Russia’s Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper released a video interview with a man it identified as Ivan Strelkov, a militia leader in Slaviansk, accused by Ukraine’s security services of being an employee of Russian intelligence. He suggested the monitors might have been using their diplomatic status “to carry out reconnaissance of the resistance positions, for the benefit of the Ukrainian army”. It is standard practice for serving military officers to be seconded to OSCE missions. German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier discussed the Ukraine situation with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov by telephone today “with an accent on possible steps to de-escalate the situation,” the Russian ministry said. Mr Steinmeier said Mr Lavrov had offered his backing, which he welcomed. In a separate call with US secretary of state John Kerry, the Russian minister said Ukraine must halt military operations in the southeast of the country in order to defuse the crisis. Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said Russian military aircraft entered Ukrainian airspace seven times overnight. “The only reason is to provoke Ukraine ... and to accuse Ukraine of waging war against Russia,” the prime minister told reporters before cutting short a visit to Rome. Washington deployed 150 paratroopers to Lithuania today. A total of 600 US troops have now arrived in Poland and the former Soviet Baltic states in a bid to reassure nervous NATO allies. “As threats emerged, we see who our real friends are,” Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite said as she greeted the troops at the Siauliai air base. Without mentioning Russia, she said the presence of US troops would “repel those who encroach on stability in Europe and peace in the region”. “The numbers are not important. If just one of our guests is harmed, this would mean an open confrontation, not with Lithuania but with the United States of America.” US officials said new sanctions targeting “cronies” of president Vladimir Putin could be unveiled as early as Monday unless Russia moved fast to defuse the crisis. In a joint statement, G7 leaders said Russia had not taken any concrete steps to implement an accord, signed earlier this month in Geneva, intended to rein in illegal armed groups. “Instead, it has continued to escalate tensions by increasingly concerning rhetoric and ongoing threatening military manoeuvres on Ukraine’s border,” it said. “We have now agreed that we will move swiftly to impose additional sanctions on Russia.” But it added: “We underscore that the door remains open to a diplomatic resolution of this crisis.” Senior EU diplomats will meet on Monday to discuss the next steps and are expected to add 15 more names to a list of Russians subject to asset freezes and a travel ban.

Militants Resist Calls To Free European Military Observers Held In Eastern Ukraine

SLAVYANSK, Ukraine -- Antigovernment militants in eastern Ukraine on Saturday rebuffed international calls for the release of a group of European military observers, but suggested that they would consider a prisoner exchange. The military observers — a group of officers reportedly from Germany, Poland, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Denmark — were detained on Friday at a rebel checkpoint at the edge of this city while traveling with a Ukrainian military delegation, which was also held. The observers, known as a military verification team, had been working under the auspices of a document from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that allows member nations — Ukraine, in this case — to invite other member nations to send observers to examine security conditions. The militants have accused the observers of espionage. Early Sunday morning, a spokesman for the O.S.C.E. in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, said members of its special monitoring mission to Ukraine, a set of monitors distinct from the detained military observers, would travel to Slavyansk from Donetsk to meet with the rebel authorities. “We’re looking forward to access Slavyansk as soon as possible to play a role in the resolution,” said the spokesman, Michael B. Bociurkiw. The detention of the observers and the allegations led to a day of swift-moving diplomatic developments. Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, spoke by telephone with his counterparts in the United States and Germany and with the president of Switzerland, Didier Burkhalter, who is also the chairman of the O.S.C.E. In his phone call with Mr. Lavrov, Secretary of State John Kerry urged Russia to use its influence with the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine to ensure that the detained observers and their Ukrainian guides be released “without preconditions,” a senior State Department official said. Mr. Kerry is opposed to any prisoner exchange, the official said. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, said he welcomed Mr. Lavrov’s pledge to help free the observers. Andrei Kelin, Russia’s representative to the security and cooperation group, said Russia would take “all possible steps” to help secure the observers’ release. “We think that these people need to be freed as soon as possible,” he said, according to Itar-Tass. The situation has been complicated by rival interpretations of the observers’ role, in part because their organization has taken pains to draw a public distinction between its permanent mission in Ukraine and the detained military observer team, and has said all of its staff members are accounted for. Rebels have seized upon the organization’s statements to characterize the observers as NATO spies who used poor judgment and entered areas outside their host government’s control without invitation or permission. “The officers we currently have do not have any relation to the O.S.C.E.,” Vyachislav Ponomaryov, the self-appointed mayor of Slavyansk, said in an interview. “The O.S.C.E. disowned them. They were here to carry out their military mission.” Mr. Ponomaryov brushed off questions about his plans for them, hinting only that he might consider exchanging them for prisoners held by Ukraine, perhaps including his deputy, who he said had disappeared while returning from Moscow and might be in Ukrainian government custody. “If we have the chance to swap them, we will do it,” he added. “If not, let them live with us. Maybe they’ll start families in time.” In a public appearance later, Mr. Ponomaryov said he had no direct contact with Russia about the detainees. Asked whether the statement of Mr. Kelin, the Russian diplomat, might influence his thinking, he answered nonchalantly. “I do not know this person,” he said. Mr. Ponomaryov claims to controA Ukrainian journalist working for Telekanal Zik, a Ukrainian Internet TV station, was also detained Friday, after recording a video report near the city’s main square, his colleagues said. The journalist, Yuri Lelyavsky, from Lviv in western Ukraine, was heard speaking Ukrainian on camera before being approached by men in camouflage and head coverings, they said. Mr. Ponomaryov swept aside questions about him as well, saying only that saboteurs sometimes use journalistic cover. On Friday, armed pro-Ukrainian forces in masks reportedly detained and deported two journalists from LifeNews, a Kremlin-aligned Russian television station. The journalists, Yulia Shustraya and Mikhail Pudovkin, were seized from their residence in Donetsk and driven to the Russian border, according to their colleagues. A statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, released after Mr. Lavrov spoke with the other world leaders, emphasized that Ukraine was holding prisoners, and noted that Mr. Lavrov had been told that representatives of the European security organization had managed to see Pavel Gubarev, a pro-Russian leader in eastern Ukraine known as the “people’s governor,” who had been arrested by the Ukrainian authorities. l at least 40 additional prisoners, whom he calls Ukrainian “saboteurs.” The ministry also released a summary of Mr. Lavrov’s phone call with Mr. Kerry, saying that Mr. Lavrov reiterated a previous statement that the interim government in Kiev should be held responsible for not “controlling the situation on the ground” or providing adequate security. Ukrainian security forces appeared to tighten the government’s self-declared blockade around the city on Saturday, by establishing at least one more armed checkpoint on a road to the northwest. The blockade appeared to be limited, and did not restrict the flow of goods. Civilian vehicles were allowed to pass after a brief search and document check. “Our objective is simply to make sure no armed people or weapons pass through,” said Sergey, a commander of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry troops at the checkpoint who declined to give his last name. Later in the day, in a crowded auditorium in Slavyansk, anti-Kiev residents appointed a new people’s council loyal to Mr. Ponomaryov. The residents appeared impatient as speakers described how this new government would be organized. Residents also gathered for the funeral for Aleksandr V. Lubenets, 21, who they said died after being shot near a checkpoint that had been attacked by Ukrainian forces. The attack, one man said, only drove eastern Ukrainian provinces closer to Russia. “Donbass, Kharkov, Russia — it’s us,” said one teary-eyed man, Nikolai Nikushin, referring to two regions of eastern Ukraine.

Pro-Russia Rebels Parade Western Hostages In Ukraine

KRAMATORSK, Ukraine -- Pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine raised the stakes in their conflict with Kiev on Sunday by parading Western military observers as hostages and showing images of three bloodied Ukrainian intelligence officers the militants separately said they had detained. The rise in the number of prisoners being held by the militants—whose power base has emerged in the southeast city of Slovyansk—has given the anti-Kiev uprising the appearance of an armed conflict zone, despite the Kremlin's description of the activists in the east as everyday "citizens driven to desperation." The militants demand a referendum on the southeast Donetsk region's future and denounce as illegitimate the pro-Europe authorities in Kiev that toppled President Viktor Yanukovych, a Donetsk native, in late February. The Kremlin also refuses to recognize the new Kiev authorities and describes them as perpetrators of an armed coup. The U.S. and European Union are preparing to impose a new round of sanctions against Russia this week as punishment for its annexation of Crimea and what Western officials have described as Kremlin support of the unrest in eastern Ukraine. But the sanctions largely have failed to change Russia's stance on Ukraine, a former Soviet republic the Kremlin has long seen as part of its privileged sphere of influence. A failure by Russia to compel the militants to release the hostages could push the U.S. and Europe closer to passing broad economic sanctions against Russia—similar to the crippling measures imposed on Iran— that Western officials have deemed a last resort. On Sunday, the self-appointed, pro-Russia rebel mayor of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, trotted out seven Western military inspectors from Germany, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and the Czech Republic and their translator, all seized late Friday at a makeshift checkpoint in nearby Kramatorsk. One of the inspectors was later released. The inspectors are members of their home countries' militaries and part of an inspection team that arrived in Ukraine under an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe pact called the Vienna Document, which sets out guidelines for exchanging military information and hosting inspections. They aren't part of the OSCE special monitoring mission, which is made up of civilians and also operates in southeast Ukraine. The European hostages gave a news conference in Slovyansk under the watch of armed pro-Russia rebels who have accused the inspectors of being spies for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The group numbers 13 in total, including five Ukrainian soldiers who were escorting the mission. The Ukrainians didn't appear at the news conference. "We have no indication when we will be sent home to our countries and to see our families," Axel Schneider, the German colonel leading the mission, told the news conference. "The conditions…are not clear to us. It is not us [who] determine the decisions." Col. Schneider said the European team initially stayed in a basement but was then moved to a place with heat and air conditioning. He said they were traveling on diplomatic passports, adding that he didn't know the whereabouts of the Ukrainians or anything about their welfare. Negotiators for the OSCE arrived in Slovyansk and held talks later Sunday with the pro-Russia militants on the release of the team. The negotiators secured the release of one of the inspectors, a Swedish major, before leaving the city, said a spokesman for the OSCE's special monitoring mission in Ukraine. An OSCE spokeswoman said he was released due to a medical condition. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called the news conference in Slovyansk "repulsive" and said it is Russia's duty to force the militants to release the hostages. Another top German official, Gernot Erler, warned that Germany could begin discussing imposing economic sanctions on Russia this week. Russia's Foreign Ministry on Saturday said it would take steps to try to solve the situation with the European hostages but appeared to blame the Ukrainian government for inviting the inspectors. The ministry suggested Kiev should have been more careful in deploying inspectors in a place "where the authorities don't control the situation and have launched a military operation against the people of their own country." Both Russia and Ukraine are OSCE members and signatories of the Vienna Document. Ukraine's Interior Ministry on Friday said Kiev officials had contacted the pro-Russia militants about the hostage situation. "They refused to release the hostages, saying they had to agree with the competent authorities of the Russian Federation," the ministry said. Igor Strelkov, the commander in charge of the Slovyansk militants, said in an interview with a Russian tabloid on Saturday that he would negotiate the release only with the authorities of the Russian Federation. The pro-Russia militants began taking hostages this month, including American journalist Simon Ostrovsky, who was later released. They have held other journalists, pro-Kiev activists and people they have accused of being far-right Ukrainian nationalist provocateurs. Many have been held in a Ukrainian security service building in Slovyansk that the militants seized in early April. They are also holding the city's elected mayor. Ukraine's federal security service, known as the SBU, confirmed that three of its officers had been taken hostage late Saturday in the city of Horlivka, southeast of Slovyansk, when they tried to arrest the primary suspect in the murder of local councilman Volodymyr Rybak . The SBU officers had been trailing the local pro-Russia commander in charge of Horlivka's occupied police station, who Ukrainian authorities named as a suspect last week. He hasn't responded to the allegations. Alexei Petrov, a spokesman for the rebel movement there, said the pro-Russia activists realized that the SBU officers were following the local commander and other militants and seized the group in the center of Horlivka. The SBU officers were later taken to Slovyansk, where Mr. Strelkov presented them in their underwear for questioning to Russian news outlets. The three men appeared bloodied with tape and gauze over their eyes and their hands tied behind their backs. In the footage, Mr. Strelkov pointed out that Kiev's attempt to surround Slovyansk and blockade his command hadn't prevented him from transferring the three SBU officers from Horlivka into the city. "We will wait for a proposal from the Ukrainian side on the exchange of these people for our comrades," Mr. Strelkov said. The militants have demanded the release of a number of activists who have been arrested during protests and other actions, including Pavel Gubarev, who helped lead the pro-Russia movement in Donetsk. After declaring himself Donetsk's "people's mayor," Mr. Gubarev was arrested March 6 for a period of two months pending trial on suspicion of threatening Ukraine's territorial integrity and provoking mass disorder. His wife has called the charges inaccurate. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called for Mr. Gubarev's release, pointing out that an agreement struck this month in Geneva by the U.S., Russia, the EU and Ukraine calls for amnesty for such activists. An OSCE representative met with Mr. Gubarev on Saturday and confirmed he is on a hunger strike. Amnesty International, the human-rights organization that advocates for prisoners, has denounced the behavior of the militants. "Taking hostages and using them as bargaining chips for political gain is as abhorrent as it is unlawful," Heather McGill, a Ukraine researcher for Amnesty, said late last week. She called on them to release all who are being held unlawfully.

Why We Have To Win In Ukraine And Putin Has To Lose

WASHINGTON, DC -- In 1956, Soviet tanks rolled into Hungary. In 1968, they crushed the Prague Spring and in the 1980’s, under Soviet pressure, Poland instituted martial law in order to subjugate the Solidarity movement. Yet today, all three countries are thriving democracies and NATO allies who contribute to our prosperity and security. As the crisis in Ukraine continues to fester, we must decide where we stand. Do we want to return to the dark days of the Cold War or do we want to build on the integrated global order that has delivered peace and prosperity? Do we believe that people have the right to pursue their dreams or do we bequeath veto power on authoritarian thugs? In Tom Friedman’s latest column, he sums up the dilemma quite nicely in the very first paragraph: Sometimes the simplest question speaks the biggest truth. I was meeting with some Maidan activists here in Kiev last week, and we were talking about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence that Ukraine was part of Russia’s traditional “sphere of influence” and “buffer zone” with the West, and, therefore, America and the European Union need to keep their hands off. At one point, one of the activists, the popular Ukrainian journalist, Vitali Sych, erupted: “Did anyone ask us whether we wanted to be part of his buffer zone?” Friedman’s column is excellent and I urge you to read it, but I think I can add to his points and provide further depth. First, some background. The popular Ukrainian journalist that Friedman refers to is someone I know well. I worked with Vitaly and consider him a close friend. We still keep in touch. Vitaly and I had a very healthy working relationship—he would often ask for my advice, but almost never took it (talent is the ultimate authority). We frequently met at my home for extended discussions over whiskey—a lot of whiskey—that would go on for hours and span the personal, the professional and the political. So I can say that when he posed the question about whether anyone asked Ukrainians if they wanted to be part of Putin’s buffer zone, it was very much in character. Vitaly is one of the most independent thinking and insightful people I have ever met. He is also very open and direct. His public persona is very much like his private one However, I do think Friedman’s column gives less than the full account and three additional points need to be made. First, while Vitaly was always a strong believer in Ukrainian independence, his support for EU integration is something more recent. After the Orange Revolution he, like most Ukrainians, wanted a more Finnish style solution in which Ukraine was neither in the Russian camp nor part of NATO or the EU. Ukrainians just wanted to be left alone. It has been Russia’s constant infringement on Ukrainian sovereignty, its lack of respect for Ukrainian national ambitions and the sheer incompetence and corruption of Putin’s rule that has driven Ukraine away. Ukrainians seek greater integration with NATO and the EU not as a matter of ideology, but practicality. They are choosing a successful model over a failed one. Second, when I was living in Poland in the late 90’s, I found that many people of the former Warsaw Pact felt much like Vitaly did after 2004. They wanted to move away from Russia and to achieve better governance and prosperity, but most of all they valued their independence. Nobody wanted to be a pawn on somebody else’s chessboard. This was an important national discussion in each of the ascension countries. Ultimately, strong majorities voted to join NATO and the EU and undergo the extensive reforms necessary to meet ascension requirements. This took no small amount of sacrifice, but I think it’s pretty clear that it has been more than worth it. Today, a 100 million people in Eastern Europe have attained a standard of living that could hardly have been imagined a generation ago. Further, rather than having to forfeit their identity, the increased freedom of expression and rule of law has resulted in a cultural renaissance in many of the former communist countries. We should be proud of what we helped accomplish in Eastern Europe and we have also benefited handsomely. Countries like Poland are strong allies and valuable trade partners. They not only buy our products, but their highly educated workforce contributes to our science and technology efforts. We have all become better off. Third, we offered Russia many of the same opportunities—and in some ways more—than the NATO and EU expansion countries. We sent technical and financial assistance, invited Russia to join important international structures like the G7 and the OSCE and educated its best and brightest through the FSA/FLEX and Muskie programs. We treated Russia with respect and did our best to address its concerns. The truth is that the Russians simply failed to take advantage of the opportunities they were given. They never embraced reform. When energy prices shot up, the proceeds went to Swiss bank accounts and military hardware rather than to reviving Russia’s dilapidated economy. Yet instead of taking responsibility for their failures, they chose to blame the world, especially the US. When I lived in Russia it became clear why: Russians never accepted that they lost the Cold War. Like Germany in the 20’s and 30’s, Russia today aspires to be an empire that can terrorize and subjugate its neighbors. Yes, it has given up Communism, but that was always a farce. In truth, Russia never truly gave up its Tsarist approach and that remains so even now. Today, Russia has replaced Communism with a fantastical Eurasian ideal in which it seeks to undermine the international order that we have worked so hard to build—the same order that has brought peace and prosperity to Europe and has vastly reduced the spectre of nuclear armageddon. While the world today has its share of problems, we should not forget that it is vastly better than the one that preceded it; safer, richer, healthier and more just. We do not want to go back to a world where the interests of nations override the rights of people. So this time, it is not enough for Russia to retreat. It must surrender and forsake its designs to turn back the clock and upend the international order. Any costs we incur to stop Putin here will pale in comparison to the price we will have to pay later. Success, even perceived success, will only embolden Russian aggression. So take my friend Vitaly’s point to heart. Nobody asked Ukrainians if they wanted to be a “buffer.” But also, ask the next logical question. If Putin can subjugate a peaceful country in the heart of Europe without provocation and face no consequences, where will he stop? Once you do, the answer becomes clear. Ukraine’s fight is our fight.

Opinion: How Ukraine Crisis Could Pull U.S. To War

KIEV, Ukraine -- Despite the ray of good news in Thursday's Geneva agreement on steps to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine, President Obama was right to sound a note of caution, observing that "I don't think we can be sure of anything at this point." The deal, reached by Russia, Ukraine and the West, called for, among other things, disarming illegally armed pro-Russian demonstrators in eastern Ukraine, and the surrender of the government buildings they have seized. These are good and essential first steps, but unless they can now be implemented as a basis on which the parties can move to further, bolder steps to reverse underlying trends, Ukraine could still slide into civil war. If this happened, how would it affect American national interests? Could Ukraine become a 21st century echo of the Balkans in the 1990s, when the collapse of Yugoslavia saw a decade of war between Serbs, Croatians, Bosnians and Kosovars? No one should forget that just a century ago Ukraine was sucked into a tragic, bloody civil war shortly after gaining independence in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution. There is a saying that history never repeats itself, but it does sometimes rhyme. Fortunately, full-blown civil war in Ukraine still seems unlikely — mainly because one side, the Ukrainian government, appears both unable and unwilling to fight. Nonetheless, it's not hard to sketch a scenario in which war is the outcome -- and from that to envision a further scenario in which the U.S. finds itself drawn into a direct confrontation. As we have seen in the past two weeks in eastern Ukraine, Russian speakers— acting either spontaneously, or at the behest of Russian security services, or both — have taken control of government buildings in 10 cities in Ukraine's eastern provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. Ukrainian military, security and police forces are so impotent, demoralized and compromised by Russian infiltration that their response has so far been pathetic. This week, the New York Times reported on the Ukrainian government's "glaring humiliation," when a military operation to confront pro-Russian militants instead saw Ukraine's 21 armored vehicles separating into two columns, surrendering or retreating. In several instances, when confronted by pro-Russian crowds, soldiers and policemen have even switched sides. If Thursday's deal unravels and Ukrainian authorities remain unable to restore basic law and order, the pro-Russian demonstrators occupying buildings will be emboldened to expand their reach. Further steps may include the demonstrators setting up an independent "republic" in the three Eastern regions and seeking to drive out forces loyal to Ukraine's interim government, provoking the Kiev government to respond with greater force, and then calling in Russian troops to defend them against what they will claim to be "fascists" from western Ukraine. Responding to a crackdown, Russian security forces would likely provide arms and other assistance to the Russian speakers, claiming that such a call for assistance from "compatriots" is impossible to ignore. As conflict intensifies, western Ukrainians, perhaps even Poles or other Europeans, could come to the aid of Ukraine. In this spiral, one thing could lead to the next, ending in significant bloodshed in eastern Ukraine, and perhaps even spreading beyond. Widespread violence or civil war would certainly be a calamity for Ukrainians. But would its consequences for American national interests require an American military response? Fortunately for Americans, the answer is no. In 2008, when Russia crushed Georgia in a short war that ended in Russia's recognition of independence for the former Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, that was President George W Bush's answer. As the ongoing civil war in Syria has claimed more than 150,000 lives, neither President Obama nor his most ardent critics, like Arizona Sen. John McCain, have judged this such an extreme threat to U.S. interests that Americans must kill and to die to stop it. That the U.S. does not have vital national interests in Ukraine will not mean that the U.S. has no national interest in holding Moscow accountable for violating territorial integrity assurances that Russia and the U.S. gave to Ukraine in 1994 in persuading it to give up nuclear weapons. Indeed, if left to take its course, this crisis has the potential to fuel further developments that engage core American national interests. For example, if Crimea becomes Putin's precedent for creeping annexation in which Russia-instigated Russian speakers occupy government buildings, liberate a territory and establish a relationship with Russia, where will this stop? Could the 25% of the population in Latvia who are Russian speakers be tempted (or coaxed) to follow suit? Both Latvians and Russians vividly recall that in 1940 Stalin annexed Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, nations that regained their independence only in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russian military intervention in Latvia, even under the guise of special forces in green garb without insignia, would almost certainly be engaged by Latvian military and police. If Russian security forces came to the assistance of their brethren in Latvia, as they would be likely to do, this would mean a direct confrontation between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO. Many Americans are not aware that Latvia and its Baltic neighbors are members of the NATO alliance, of which the United States is the leader. How many Americans know that members of that alliance, including the United States, commit themselves in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to regard an attack against one NATO signatory as "an attack against them all"? Pursuant to that commitment, successive American presidents have approved war plans in which Americans would fight to defend the territory of all members of the alliance. Preventing Ukraine's collapse into civil war must therefore be a high priority for the leaders of both the United States and Russia. The Geneva agreement on "initial concrete steps to de-escalate tensions and restore security," which U.S. and Russian diplomats signed, along with their EU and Ukrainian counterparts, represents the first real step in the international community's collective effort to reverse Ukraine's slide into chaos. Leaders in both Washington and Moscow will have to follow up with further, bolder steps to prevent Ukraine's spiraling into a civil war that could draw them into a direct confrontation. These additional steps will require all parties to accept arrangements that would be unacceptable — except for the fact that all feasible alternatives are even worse.

New Russia Sanctions Threats As Ukraine Stalemate Goes On

KIEV, Ukraine -- A day after an international deal in Geneva to defuse the East-West crisis in Ukraine, pro-Russian separatists vowed not to end their occupation of public buildings and Washington threatened further sanctions on Moscow if the stalemate continued. Leaders of gunmen who have taken over city halls and other sites in and around Donetsk this month in pursuit of demands for a Crimea-style referendum on union with Russia, rejected the agreement struck in Geneva by Ukraine, Russia, the United States and European Union and demanded on Friday that the leaders of the Kiev uprising must first quit their own government offices. Moscow renewed its insistence that it has no control over the "little green men" who, as before Russia annexed Crimea last month, appeared in combat gear and with automatic weapons to seize public buildings - a denial that Western allies of those who overthrew the pro-Russian president in Kiev do not accept. The White House renewed President Barack Obama's demands that the Kremlin use what Washington believes is its influence over the separatists to get them to vacate the premises. It warned of heavier economic sanctions than those already imposed over Crimea if Moscow failed to uphold the Geneva deal - or if it moved to send troops massed on the border into Ukraine. "We believe that Russia has considerable influence over the actions of those who have been engaged in destabilising activities in eastern Ukraine," national security adviser Susan Rice said. "If we don't see action commensurate with the commitments that Russia has made yesterday in Geneva ... then obviously we've been very clear that we and our European partners remain ready to impose additional costs on Russia. "Those costs and sanctions could include targeting very significant sectors of the Russian economy." President Vladimir Putin's spokesman hit back, while voicing scepticism - of a kind also heard from the Ukrainian government - about how useful the cautiously worded Geneva pact would be. "You can't treat Russia like a guilty schoolboy," said Dmitry Peskov. "That kind of language is unacceptable." The Russian foreign ministry said: "The Americans are once again stubbornly trying to whitewash the actions of the Kiev authorities, who have embarked on a course of violently suppressing protesters in the southeast who are expressing their legitimate indignation over the infringements of their rights." UKRAINIAN OFFERS Ukraine's interim government, in power since pro-Western protests forced President Viktor Yanukovich to flee to Russia two months ago, was at pains to show it was keeping its part of the bargain. Its ill-equipped security forces have shown little sign of being able to regain control in the east by force. Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, though admitting he was not overly optimistic about the agreement solving what has become the gravest East-West crisis since the Cold War, said militants would be offered an amnesty. And he and the acting president made a formal joint broadcast pledging constitutional reform to devolve power to the regions and bolster the status of Russian as an official language in areas where it was widely spoken. Russia has made much of the presence of far-right "fascists" among those who forced Yanukovich out in February. In parliament, nationalists briefly tried to abolish a law allowing the official use of Russian, the first language of many in the 46 million population, and of a majority in the eastern regions. Critics of Putin say that Kremlin-controlled Russian media have fuelled unjustified fear of the new Kiev leadership in the east of Ukraine, where Yanukovich had his power base. But Russia, which Ukraine and the West say is destabilising the new government in order to maintain and extend its influence over its most populous ex-Soviet neighbor, echoed the Donetsk militants in denouncing the authorities' failure to dismantle what is effectively an anti-Russian protest camp in Kiev. The barricaded encampment around Independence Square, known as Maidan, played a crucial role in bringing down Yanukovich after he roused popular anger by rejecting closer economic and other ties with the EU in November. Now, hard-core activists on the square say they will defy any efforts to move them on until a presidential election has been held successfully on May 25. Ukraine's foreign minister warned the militants in the east that they could face "more concrete actions" after the Easter weekend if they failed to cooperate with monitors from Europe's OSCE security body and start vacating buildings. But, he said, the Maidan was not an "illegal" occupation and so unaffected. Russia's envoy to the European Union said Ukraine was misreading the Geneva accord, "in particular that it only applies to the eastern and southern provinces and those who are demanding federalism, but not to Kiev, where everything is legal including the ongoing occupation of Maidan". The Geneva agreement requires all illegal armed groups to disarm and end occupations of public buildings, streets and squares. This week has already seen several people killed in eastern Ukraine, although details remain unclear. The self-declared leader of all the eastern separatists said he did not consider his men to be bound by the agreement. Denis Pushilin, head of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, told journalists in Donetsk, the regional capital, that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov "did not sign anything for us; he signed on behalf of the Russian Federation". First, he said at a news conference in the heavily barricaded, occupied headquarters of the regional administration, Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk and Acting President Oleksander Turchinov should quit their offices, as they took them over "illegally" after Yanukovich was ousted. "The Kiev junta is signing agreements and fulfilling none of them. They are provoking crisis," he said. "Turchinov committed a crime against his own people. We will keep going to the end." But Alexei, a separatist in nearby Slaviansk, acknowledged that the Geneva talks may have changed the situation: "It turns out Vova doesn't love us as much as we thought," he said, using a diminutive term for Putin, who is viewed by many of the militias in occupied buildings as their champion and protector. FEAR, SUSPICION Massive unknowns hang over the situation. Putin's ultimate goal may not be the Crimean-style annexation of Ukraine's industrial heartland, despite his comments in a major public appearance on Thursday in which he recalled that what is now eastern and southern Ukraine was the tsars' New Russia. The Kremlin denies any ambition to take territory and many analysts believe it is principally seeking to influence events in Ukraine to ensure a favorable outcome in next month's election following the loss of Russian ally Yanukovich. That in turn raises questions of the role of Ukraine's rich business "oligarchs" in the crisis and the election. Conspiracy theories abound in Kiev, according to which the rich and powerful may be fomenting unrest behind the scenes to further their own ends or to curry favor with Putin, who holds sway over the Russian business interests of Ukrainian tycoons. Suspicion of the elites whom they blame for robbing the national wealth and corrupting government and society for the 23 years of post-Soviet independence drives activists on Kiev's Maidan to insist they will not dismantle "self-defense" barricades until after they see a fair election next month. "People will not leave the Maidan," said 56-year-old Viktor Palamaryuk from the western town of Chernivtsi. "The people gave their word to stay until the presidential elections so that nobody will be able to rig the result. Then after the election we'll go of our own accord." As shrines to the 100 or so who died in violence on the square became a focus for Good Friday solemnity, when Christians mark the crucifixion of Jesus, many said that weariness after five months of protests would not break their will. "Nobody will take down our tents and barricades," said 34-year-old Volodymyr Shevchenko from the southern Kherson region. "If the authorities try to do that by force, thousands and thousands of people will come on to the Maidan and stop them." Right Sector, a far-right nationalist group at the heart of battles with riot police in February, saw the Geneva accord as being directed only at pro-Russian separatists in the east. "We don't have any illegal weapons," said Right Sector spokesman Artem Skoropadsky. "We, the vanguard of the Ukrainian revolution, should not be compared to outright gangsters." Washington did not spell out what further sanctions it might place on Russia. With the EU, it has so far imposed visa bans and asset freezes on a small number of Russians, a response that Moscow has mocked. But some EU states are reluctant to do more, fearing that could provoke Russia further or end up hurting their own economies, which are heavily reliant on Russian gas.

Eastern Ukraine Militants Snub Geneva Deal On Crisis

DONETSK, Ukraine -- Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk say they will not leave the government building there, defying the Kiev authorities and threatening a new international deal on Ukraine. The separatists' spokesman said that the Kiev government was "illegal" and so they would not go until it stepped down. Russia, Ukraine, the EU and US earlier agreed that illegal military groups in Ukraine must leave official buildings. The deal was reached in Geneva. The sides agreed that illegal military groups in Ukraine must be dissolved, and that those occupying buildings must be disarmed and leave them. The foreign ministers also agreed that there would be an amnesty for all anti-government protesters. US President Barack Obama has cautiously welcomed the Geneva deal. But he warned that the US and its allies were ready to impose new sanctions on Russia - accused by the West of supporting the Ukrainian separatists - if the situation failed to improve. A tense standoff continues in eastern Ukraine, where separatists - many of them armed - are occupying official buildings in at least nine cities and towns. Alexander Gnezdilov, spokesman for the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, said his group would evacuate the government building in the eastern city only when the "illegal" Kiev government vacated parliament and the presidential administration. Another protest leader in Donetsk said the separatists would not leave unless pro-European Union demonstrators in Kiev's Maidan Square - the vanguard of the protest movement that toppled President Viktor Yanukovych, an ally of Moscow - packed up their camp first. A statement from the Donetsk separatists said "we cannot accept the values of the Kiev junta, we have our heroic past going back to World War Two, we are the Russian bear which is waking up". "Don't worry, everything will stay peaceful and orderly. The only problem is if the Kiev junta want war." They said they would not ask Russia for help yet, but "we will have a referendum before 11 May, about Donbass independence - after that we will ask for help". Addressing the Ukrainian parliament on Friday, interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said an amnesty bill had been prepared for separatists who laid down their arms and left government buildings - and he urged them to do so. "Russia was made to condemn extremism and to agree that all bandit groups should immediately lay down arms and vacate premises. So vacate. Your time is over. We are urging them to immediately observe what the Russian minister signed and to leave Ukraine alone," he said. But later the Ukrainian interim authorities struck a more conciliatory tone. In a joint televised address, Mr Yatsenyuk and acting President Oleksander Turchynov appealed for national unity and promised to meet some of the demands of protesters in the east of the country. They said they would support constitutional change, including the devolving of power to local councils - including over their official language, a key demand of Russian-speakers. In other developments on Friday: The interior ministry in Kiev issued an arrest warrant for Olexander Yanukovych, the eldest son of fugitive ex-President Yanukovych and a millionaire businessman, for alleged forgery of documents; the ex-president fled to Russia in February - it is not clear where he or Olexander are now. Russian shares bounced back after the Geneva deal - the RTS index in Moscow was up 2.8% and the MICEX up 2.3%. They had slumped earlier in the week. Russia demanded that Kiev explain an official notice restricting entry to Ukraine for most Russian men aged between 16 and 60. Media spotlight on Putin Russian newspapers devoted their front pages on Friday to coverage of a four-hour televised phone-in with President Vladimir Putin, rather than the Geneva talks. "Vladimir Putin: You don't need to worry about a thing" said the front-page headline in Rossiskaya Gazeta, while Kommersant bore the headline: "Putin charts a stubborn line". Mr Putin was repeatedly applauded by Russians during the live event, in which he demanded firm security guarantees and equal rights for Russian-speakers in Ukraine. He said he hoped he would not have to use his "right" to send Russian forces into Ukraine. Moscow has tens of thousands of troops massed along the border with its neighbor. Mr Putin was speaking after Wednesday night's clash in Mariupol, eastern Ukraine, in which three separatists were reportedly killed by Ukrainian security forces after hundreds of pro-Russians attacked a military base. US-UK resolve But speaking in Washington just hours later, President Obama expressed scepticism as to whether Russia would keep its side of the bargain. "My hope is that we actually do see follow-through over the next several days, but I don't think, given past performance, that we can count on that," he said. In a telephone call with UK Prime Minister David Cameron, the two leaders agreed that the United States and Europe were prepared to take further measures to impose a new round of sanctions if Russia failed to help restore order. And speaking on Friday, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said: "We do want to see over this weekend Russia take the necessary actions to reduce tensions to make sure the agreement in Geneva yesterday is upheld. "We believe that Russia contributed to destabilising the east of Ukraine over the last week, now it's an important obligation on them to contribute to stabilising it. "We will all want to see evidence of that otherwise we will return to imposing more sanctions on Russia as we agreed at the beginning of the week." Ukraine has been in crisis since President Yanukovych was toppled in February. Russia then annexed the Crimean peninsula - part of Ukraine but with a Russian-speaking majority - in a move that provoked international outrage.

Pentagon Weighs Deploying Troops To Poland As Militants Snub Ukraine Pact

WASHINGTON, DC -- The Pentagon is exploring options for deploying U.S. troops to Poland to expand NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe because of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, as pro-Russian militants defiantly refused Friday to leave government buildings in eastern Ukraine despite a diplomatic accord reached in Geneva. A senior U.S. official told Fox News on Friday the U.S. is considering sending relatively small units to the country of around 130 soldiers, and the units would be there on a rotational basis. Poland’s Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak told the Washington Post Friday the U.S. was planning on sending ground troops after speaking with Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel on Thursday. Siemoniak said military planners are working out the logistics and the two countries also plan to increase their cooperation in air defense, cyber defense, special forces and other areas. Siemonack said he believes the U.S. needs to turn its focus back to Europe, after announcing a “pivot” to Asia. “The idea until recently was that there were no more threats in Europe and no need for a U.S. presence in Europe anymore,” Siemoniak told the Washington Post. “Events show that what is needed is a re-pivot, and that Europe was safe and secure because America was in Europe.” Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby told Fox News the agency will not announce any specific plans at this time, but is considering military options in Europe. “As Secretary Hagel made clear, we continue to look for ways to reassure NATO allies of our strong commitment to collective defense under Article Five,” he said. “To that end, we are considering a range of additional measures we could take to bolster air, maritime and ground readiness in Europe.” Kirby said such measures would either be pursued bilaterally with individual nations or through NATO. The U.S. also deployed 12 F-16 fighter jets to Poland in recent weeks and delivered 10 F-15s to the Baltic states for air-patrol programs. Vice President Joe Biden said on a trip to Poland last month the U.S. is looking forward to helping Poland as it continues to modernize its military. “It goes without saying that collective defense is a shared responsibility, and the United States of America strongly supports Poland’s military modernization and we look forward to being a partner in that modernization,” Biden said. Talks between Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the European Union produced an agreement Thursday in Geneva to take tentative steps toward calming tensions in Ukraine. The country's former leader fled to Russia in February and Russia annexed Crimea in March. The Geneva agreement calls for disarming all paramilitary groups and immediately returning all government buildings seized across the country. Denis Pushilin of the self-appointed Donetsk People's Republic told reporters on Friday the insurgents in more than 10 cities do not recognize Ukraine's interim government as legitimate and will not leave the buildings until the government resigns. He demanded that Ukrainian leaders abandon their own public buildings. Ukraine has scheduled a presidential election for May 25, but Pushilin reiterated a call to hold a referendum on self-determination for the Donetsk region by May 11. The same kind of referendum in Crimea led to its annexation by Russia. In a sign that Ukraine's fledging government is ready to meet some of the protesters' demands, the acting president and prime minister issued a joint statement Friday saying the Ukrainian government is "ready to conduct a comprehensive constitutional reform that will secure powers of the regions," giving them a greater say in local governance. They also pledged "a special status to the Russian language" and vowed to protect the rights of all citizens whatever language they spoke. In Washington, President Barack Obama conveyed skepticism about Russian promises to de-escalate the volatile situation in Ukraine, and said the United States and its allies were ready to impose more sanctions if Moscow doesn't make good on its commitments. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, complained on state television about possible further sanctions against Russia. "You must not act toward Russia as if it were a naughty schoolgirl, to whom you thrust some kind of paper where it's necessary to mark off that she did her homework," Peskov said. Meanwhile, former Ukrainian prime minister and presidential hopeful Yulia Tymoshenko arrived Friday in Donetsk in a bid to defuse the tensions and hear "the demands of Ukrainians who live in Donetsk." "I'd like to listen to these demands by myself and find out how serious they are, so that one could find the necessary compromise between the east and the west that will allow us to unite the country," she told The Associated Press. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has emphasized that the requirement to abandon occupied buildings applied to all parties — an apparent reference to the ultranationalist Right Sector, whose activists are occupying Kiev city hall and a Kiev cultural center.

Analysis: Vladimir Putin's Veiled Threats Over Ukraine

MOSCOW, Russia -- Russian President Vladimir Putin's yearly Q&A session is always a mammoth and carefully orchestrated event. This year it lasted nearly four hours and was dominated by questions about Crimea and Ukraine. It was a chance for Putin to project himself as a reassuring statesman to his people, a leader who, from Russia's point of view, had this crisis under control. To his supporters he would have seemed a model peacemaker, advocating diplomacy and compromise. But his critics would have heard veiled threats, and an underlying steely determination to have his way. And in the light of what's been agreed in Geneva, his comments are also illuminating, a guide to what it is that Moscow wants. Starting point His main argument was that at the heart of any compromise had to be a deal between the government in Kiev and "real representatives" of the Russian-speaking rebels of eastern Ukraine (including some of the self-styled separatist leaders who have been imprisoned). That indeed was Russia's starting point at the talks in Geneva today between Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the EU, which have now resulted in an agreement to take initial steps to de-escalate the tension. But what Putin made clear was that in his view the most important talks - between the two opposing sides in Ukraine itself - have yet to start. What he stressed again and again was that all Russia wanted was what the pro-Russian protestors of eastern Ukraine themselves demand - some sort of federal or decentralised arrangement, so they can run their own affairs (and presumably stay closely tied to Russia), and a guarantee that these rights would be protected by law. It did not matter which came first, he said: a referendum to change the constitution, or the election planned for 25 May for a new Ukrainian president. The key was whether Kiev could deliver a deal and a guarantee which the east Ukrainians accepted. So far, so good. Not a hint of talk of any secessionist aims, of eastern Ukraine following Crimea's lead to break away and join Russia (an option which has found less traction, it seems, in eastern Ukraine than it did among Russian-speakers in Crimea). That, it seems, is not what Russia wants. But the vision of compromise, if all goes well with negotiations, was only half of what Putin had to say. There were also harsh words and warnings of what could happen if this attempt to exit from the crisis doesn't work. 'Look at Yugoslavia' To have sent the Ukrainian army into eastern Ukraine was madness, said Putin, a "grave crime" which meant that the illegal government in Kiev was staring into the abyss. He categorically rejected allegations that Russian special forces were operating in eastern Ukraine too. This, he said was "utter nonsense": the only forces in eastern Ukraine were locals, forced to take up arms in self-defense. Kiev had to pull its Ukrainian troops and heavy weaponry out, he said, before any compromise could possibly work. And if not, then Moscow would not recognise the presidential election in May and, more chilling still, everyone should remember that the Russian parliament had given him what he called the "right" to use Russian military force in Ukraine. He stressed that he hoped he would not have to give the order. But the threat remains: as a last resort, those tens of thousands of Russian troops based across the border might indeed be ordered to invade. And if Russians feared that this might create enmity for the first time in history between Russia and its Ukrainian brethren, it was not Russia's fault, said Putin. He nodded to (unnamed) foreign powers who were always trying to drive a wedge between Russia and its neighbours out of fear of Russia's size and power. "Look at Yugoslavia," he said. "They cut it up and then began to manipulate it. That's what they want to do with us." Anxieties This paranoia that the West has been out to weaken Russia emerged in other comments too. Absorbing Crimea into Russia had also been important in terms of national defence, he admitted, because otherwise the NATO alliance might have moved into Crimea and Sevastopol, elbowing Russia out of its rightful position at the heart of the Black Sea. But Putin's attitude to the West is complicated. He also wants to be friends again - and so, it seems, do many Russians. A succession of questions made clear that while Russians may welcome the return of Crimea to the motherland, they are also worried about the price they might have to pay for this victory. President Putin tried to reassure them: that there was enough money in Russian reserves to cover the billions of roubles needed to prop Crimea up. That crippling European sanctions were unlikely and that Russia did not face the prospect of international isolation because many countries understood its point of view. That if the Ukraine crisis could be resolved peacefully, a good working relationship with the United States and Europe could be restored. It was a telling reflection of the anxieties of ordinary Russian people. Just as his own performance was an insight into the fears and suspicions which have driven Vladimir Putin's actions so far and a glimpse of his game plan for how this Ukrainian crisis might be resolved. But the tensions have not yet subsided. His deep-seated grievances against the West will probably not go away. And after all that has happened it may be harder to rebuild co-operation with Western partners and with any new government in Kiev than he assumes. It's still too soon to tell which way this crisis may turn out.

Kiev Sees Russian Federalization Plans As Attempt To Destroy Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- First, Russia took over a chunk of their country. Now, to the astonishment of many Ukrainians, Moscow is telling them how to run the rest of their nation. The lectures do not sit well here. Russia has been insisting that Ukraine adopt a federal form of government that would give regions nearly boundless authority. It’s a means to make the regions vulnerable to Russian interference, Ukrainians say, and eventually tear the country apart. And, they point out, Russia would never tolerate such a system itself. “The issue of federalization is absolutely artificial,” said Yuriy Yakymenko, a political expert at the Razumkov think tank in Kiev. “It’s part of Russia’s plan to impose control over Ukraine and prevent it from integrating with Europe.” Overall, 14 percent of Ukrainians support federalization, according to a poll released Saturday by the International Republican Institute, a U.S.-financed organization that supports democracy. Federalization was more popular in the south, 22 percent, and the east, 26 percent. The poll, which included Crimea, was carried out from March 14 to 26 as Crimea was being annexed by Russia. The results contradict the assertions Russia has made to justify its annexation of Crimea and its threats to intervene in eastern Ukraine, instead finding widespread opposition to Russian incursion and a growing preference for ties to Europe rather than Russia. Ukraine definitely needs decentralization, said Oleksiy Haran, a professor of comparative politics at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. Cities and villages want real self-government, he said. But federalization? “This is an idea developed by the Kremlin,” he said, “as a tool to divide Ukraine and play one region against the other.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, was adamant when he explained the plan in a television interview in Moscow several days ago, saying federalization would give each region of Ukraine authority over its own “economics, finance, culture, language, education, foreign economy and cultural ties with neighboring countries or regions.” He described recent events in Ukraine, where three months of demonstrations for good government resulted in the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych fleeing the country, as “the result of a deep crisis of national identity” caused by the inability to reconcile the interests of the various regions. “Things cannot keep going on in this way,” Lavrov said. “We are convinced that deep constitutional reform is required. Frankly speaking, we do not see any other way for sustainable development of the Ukrainian state other than a federal state.” A clearly irritated Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a rejoinder last week. “Instead of dictating its ultimatum-like terms to a sovereign and independent state, it should first pay attention to the catastrophic condition and complete lack of rights of its own national minorities, including Ukrainians,” the ministry told Russia. Officially, Russia itself is a federation and the Russian constitution guarantees freedom of speech and assembly, but in practice the country is highly centralized and freedom is limited, Haran said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has steadily built a top-down system he calls the “vertical of power.” And Russia, which snapped up Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula after arranging a March 16 referendum in favor of annexation that violated Ukraine’s constitution, has shown no tolerance for separatism at home. A declaration of independence by Russia’s southern region of Chechnya in 1991 led to two wars with Moscow that were fought with exceptional brutality and bloodshed. Although a Kremlin-installed strongman has extinguished most of the violence, Chechnya remains unpredictable. Last week, four Russian soldiers were killed and seven were wounded when their armored vehicle drove over an explosive device in Chechnya during what the Interior Ministry described as a reconnaissance mission. And Islamist separatists have taken the struggle to neighboring Dagestan, where shootouts kill hundreds of police and militants every year. Ukraine is tranquil by comparison. Although some pro-Russian crowds in eastern Ukrainian cities have clashed with pro-Ukrainian crowds since the fall of Yanukovych, Ukraine authorities say Russian agents provoked the disorder. But Russia has described what it calls “atrocities” against Russian-speakers, issuing warnings that suggest it is building a case to send troops into eastern Ukraine as it did in Crimea. The IRI poll released Saturday, however, found Ukraine’s Russian-speakers did not feel under threat. Even in the Russian-speaking east and south, including Crimea, 74 percent said they felt no threat. The Ukrainian government was overly centralized during the Yanukovych years, Haran said. “He sent his own people to rule every region.” Local executives now are appointed by the president and prime minister. The new Ukrainian government is working on changes to the constitution that are expected to result in decentralization, with executives elected locally. Volodymyr Hroisman, a deputy prime minister in charge of regional development, said last week that amendments would be made to the constitution this year, clearing the way for local elections next year. Until February, the 36-year-old Hroisman was the mayor of the city of Vinnytsia, about 160 miles west of Kiev. Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers, he said, has put itself on the record in favor of self-government and giving local communities the financial resources to solve their own problems. Lavrov said Russia had no intention of backing off. “I am convinced that we must insist, not because we want this,” he said, “but because it is a request of the southern and eastern regions.” A December poll by sociologists at Razumkov, however, found widespread opposition both to federalization and to any Ukrainian regions separating and joining Russia. Then, 15.8 percent (the March IRI poll found 14 percent) supported federalization, and only 7.5 percent were in favor of Ukraine’s southeastern regions jointing Russia. “People want the kind of self-government that will allow them to solve their own problems,” Yakymenko said. Broadly speaking, decentralization is a good idea, according to Oleksiy Matsuka, an online journalist in eastern Donetsk — as long as the country takes up the fight against widespread corruption. “When Yanukovych was in power, no one demanded federalization,” he said. “Yanukovych created more centralization. Strange. Once Yanukovych fled, his supporters started demanding decentralization. They want direct access to money, so they can steal it here.”

Ukraine Threatens To Take Russia To Court Over Gas Price Hikes

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine on Saturday rejected Russia's latest gas price hike and threatened to take its energy-rich neighbour to arbitration court over a dispute that could imperil deliveries to western Europe Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Russia's two rate increases in three days were a form of "economic aggression" aimed at punishing Ukraine's new leaders for overthrowing a Moscow-backed regime last month. Russia's natural gas group Gazprom this week raised the price of Ukrainian gas by 81 percent -- to $485.50 (354.30 euros) from $268.50 for 1,000 cubic metres -- requiring the ex-Soviet state to pay the highest rate of any of its European clients. The decision threatens to further fan a furious diplomatic row between Moscow and the West that has left Kremlin insiders facing sanctions and more diplomatic isolation than at any stage since the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall. "Political pressure is unacceptable. And we do not accept the price of $500 (per 1,000 cubic metres of gas)," Yatsenyuk told a cabinet meeting called to get a handle on the economic crisis that threatens to escalate tensions in the culturally splintered nation of 46 million. The profound scale of the rift between those who see their future tied to either Europe or the Kremlin was underscored when security agents announced the arrest of 15 men who allegedly planned to distribute 300 machineguns for the armed overthrow of the local government of a region neighbouring Russia. Ukraine's heavily Russified southeastern swaths have sought to stage their own independence referendums similar to the one that resulted in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea being annexed by Moscow last month. Yatsenyuk said Ukraine must now prepare for the possibility that "Russia will either limit or halt deliveries of gas to Ukraine" in the coming weeks or months. Gazprom's European clients saw their deliveries limited in 2006 and 2009 when the gas giant -- long accused of raising the rates of neighbours who seek closer ties to the West -- halted Ukraine's shipments due to disagreements over price. The state gas company supplies about a third of EU nations' demand, despite efforts by Brussels to limit energy dependence on Russia over its crackdown on domestic dissent and increasingly militant foreign stance. Nearly 40 percent of that gas flows through Ukraine, while the remainder travels along the Nord Stream undersea pipeline to Germany and another link through Belarus and Poland. Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuriy Prodan said Kiev was ready to take Gazprom to arbitration court in Stockholm if Moscow refused to negotiate over a lower price. "If we fail to agree, we are going to go to arbitration court, as the current contract allows us to do," Prodan warned. But Gazprom countered that it was ready to defend any court action because it was simply reverting back to the price set in a 10-year contract that Ukraine had signed in 2009. This week's rate hikes reflected the elimination of two separate discounts that Moscow had extended to the government of ousted pro-Kremlin president Viktor Yanukovych. Ukraine's state gas company "has already been executing this contract," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kuprianov told the Interfax news agency. "So from the standpoint of international trade practises, that means that it recognised (the 2009 contract)." The budding gas war adds another layer of concern to a crisis that has seen Russia mass tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine's eastern border and ignore Western pressure to cede its claim on Crimea -- rejected by both Kiev and the UN General Assembly. The Unites States has responded by boosting NATO's defence of eastern European nations and trying to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin on the world stage. And both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said on Saturday that Europe -- once divided in the face of Putin's new expansionist streak -- was ready to impose broader economic sanctions against Russia if it pushed any harder against Ukraine. "If the territorial integrity of Ukraine continues to be violated, then we will have to introduce economic sanctions," said Merkel. "Might does not make right," she told a congress of her Christian Democratic Party. Ashton also said Europe was "prepared to take measures" against Russia. Yatsenyuk said he was busy trying to seal agreements with Ukraine's western neighbours on gas deliveries that would cost about $150 per thousand cubic metres less than Gazprom's price. Ukraine has already received small quantities from Poland and Hungary despite Russian disapproval. Yatsenyuk said he was also keen to secure an agreement with Slovakia, which receives all its gas from Russia and has been unwilling to complicate relations with Gazprom in the past. But Gazprom chief Alexei Miller responded by warning that Russia would be looking closely at any independent deals its client states reached with Ukraine. "European companies that are ready to provide reverse flow deliveries to Ukraine should take a very careful -- very careful -- look at the legitimacy of such sorts of operations," Miller told Russian state television.