Saturday, 9 June 2012
Russia no longer makes any sense in the world?
According to various "wise men" Russia's future is absolutely bleak, or rather, non-existent. In "Financial Times" the renowned authors - the world's leading economist Nouriel Roubini and president of consulting company "Eurasia" Ian Bremmer - argued that Russia no longer makes any sense in the world, so it must be driven out from the G8 and everyone should stop pretending that Russia belongs to their society. One of the main "building blocks" in the foundation of this postulate is that Russia has "outlived" itself almost literally, in short - Russia is dead, and they will stay. The authors stated that Russia's population is shrinking: minus 6 million over the past 20 years. It is a significant statement. However, it is unclear why the foreign experts are so humble with the negative balance, because if you take readings from all the "killer" indicators, you will see that Russia is nearly gone. Let us look at some numbers for the purity of the experiment. Russia's Federal Service says that "every year in Russia 400,000 deaths caused by smoking are recorded," i.e., premature deaths. Alcohol statistics is even more nightmarish. The report "Alcohol abuse in the Russian Federation: the socio-economic impacts and countermeasures", prepared by the Public Chamber Commission on social and demographic policy, states: "Every year in Russia alcohol abuse leads to premature death of nearly half a million (!) people." Next - a smaller but no less impressive number: according to the Health Ministry, every year "180,000 people die of causes related to exposure to production hazards." Let us not forget about drugs - according to the Federal Drug Control Service, "each year 126,000 people at the age of 15 to 34 years die from drug abuse." According to the reports from the official website of Ministry of Internal Affairs, in Russia annually at least 45,000 murders take place. During the same period of time 35,000 people are killed in car accidents, and 20,000 (statistics of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES)) die in fires. Medical errors kill 50,000 people a year (League for the Protection of Patients); suicide takes away 60 thousand people (Research Center for Social and Forensic Psychiatry named after Serbsky), over 15 thousand people drown (MES), about 10,000 women die "from domestic violence" ("Russian Newspaper"). A few comments before we calculate the total number of annual losses. First, since the reasons for deaths in the data are very specific, simple logic tells us that they do not "overlap". In other words, hardly anyone is immediately poisoned by alcohol, tobacco and drugs, was the woman that was beat up by her husband, and then by the criminals, then burned in a fire, was hit by a car, drowned and died as a result of medical errors, ending the life in suicide. Second, all information is obtained from public sources on the Internet. Given the enormous range of "death" mathematics (for example, alcohol - from 80,000 and up to one million) we took either averages or the "freshest" data for the period from 2001 as the basis. Third, and most important, no one explained where one or another number comes from. As a result, Russia annually loses over 1,440,000 people only from "unnatural causes". For some it would seem not much, but "cardiovascular disease" (up to 960,000 people) or "oncology" (up to 300,000), or infant mortality (from 50,000 to 80,000), or "just old age "(no one really counted how many - there are only obscure percentage indicators). Given the "Internet birth rate" (search engines indicate an average of 1.5 million babies annually) Russian "balance" is quite devastating. The "six million" loss in 20 years according to the "Financial Times" is nothing if you consider all the grim statistics according to which in Russia as many people die as are born. As for death from various diseases and from natural causes, they would go into the "pure negative" because since 2001 Russia should have irreplaceably "lost" about 15 million or even more (there were also tough 1990s, bad ecology, war, acts of terrorism and immigration). With such a pace in 80 years there will be no Russia. Hence the numerous tales about "the saving migrants", "Russia that will first lose its population, then its territories", with the key finding - one can start ignoring Russia now, because it will soon become extinct like mammoths." Do not get me wrong, I am not saying that there is no "demographic curse" in the country (the excess of deaths over births) and other problems associated with the reduction of the indigenous population. The picture is already ugly, but why add extra "strokes"? I do not protest against the obvious truths, such as "smoking is bad for you." However, I do not believe in the 400,000 Russians who die from tobacco annually, especially considering the fact that there is no such a diagnosis in medicine. People die from co-dependent diseases, getting into several lists, where statisticians later get their information. First of all, Russia has to stop "terrorizing" its own population, providing material for the fabrications. So ladies and gentlemen of the "Financial Times": do not be in a hurry to bury Russia, as the information about its death is greatly exaggerated.