Wednesday 25 February 2015

Ukraine Rebels Praise The Lord While Russia Passes The Ammunition

DEBALTSEVE, Ukraine — The Russian-backed rebels of the 7th Brigade of the Donetsk People’s Republic army have been flying a flag with the face of Jesus Christ on it since they went to war in eastern Ukraine in April. 
Now it’s flapping in the wind at a checkpoint between the mostly destroyed towns of Vuhlehirsk and Debaltseve, and the troops are pumped up with a sense of righteous victory.

Last week, after a long siege—and ignoring a nominal cease-fire—they forced the Ukraine government’s troops to give up Debaltseve in what was, for Kiev, a humiliating defeat.

On Sunday, bearded and dirty after weeks of fighting in the epicenter of the war, the rebels could not wait to conquer more Ukrainian towns.

As one of the commanders, nicknamed Dyak, told The Daily Beast, first they plan to take over Slovyansk, a hometown for several of them that served as a rebel operations center for much of last year, then became the focus of outrageous Russian propaganda after it was taken by Ukrainian forces.

The rebels want to surround Volnovakha, and eventually they plan to take control of Mariupol, a strategic port on the Sea of Azov that sits astride the land route between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow seized and annexed almost a year ago.

(On Monday, Kiev reported rebel attacks on government troops in Mariupol.)

Dyak proudly told us that now his forces have everything they need to fight “a big war.”

He pointed at a Russian T-72B3 main battle tank and three Russian 2S1 SAU Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers fueling up at a gas station mostly destroyed by artillery.
The commander bragged of even more powerful weapons, including an MSTA self-propelled gun known as a “Tank Destroyer” sent from Russia and deployed with rebel forces.

But weaponry was not the only explanation of the victory, Dyak insisted, pointing at a big blue-and-yellow sign across the road that said: “Ukraine is above all.”

The rebels mocked the slogan, popular among Ukrainian patriots.

“We are beating Ukrainians because Jesus is with us, not with them, executioners of their own people,” Dyak said.

“Ukraine should know, we are not a bunch of insurgents—we are a serious army now, the forces of Novorossia.”

The rebels talk constantly these days about setting up new “cauldrons” where they can trap Ukraine’s troops the way they were trapped in Debaltseve, with heavy artillery pouring in on them from all sides.

The strategy, which some Ukrainian soldiers refer to as “meat grinder,” destroyed hundreds of lives twice before: in Ilovaisk, where the rebels killed around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers last August, and in Debaltseve this month.

All in all, thousands of civilians and military have been killed and villages and towns devastated as the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine has experienced combat the likes of which nobody has seen here since World War II.

“Nobody is going to make peace in Ukraine,” the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, declared at a public meeting on Monday.
He blamed Ukraine for taking weapons from United States. (Washington is still debating whether to supply any sort of lethal weapons, in fact.)

Zakharchenko predicted that Ukraine would attack the rebels again in late March or early April.  

Clearly, there’s no confidence in the cease-fire arrangements hammered out in Minsk this month.

“As soon as we withdraw heavy weapons from front lines, Ukraine will pull weapons in from Kharkiv and Dnepropetrovsk,” said Zakharchenko.

“It seems to me, there will be a provocation. Ukraine needs war.”

In the meantime, the security services of Ukraine warned against mass rallies in Kharkiv after Sunday’s terrorist attack on a peaceful march of Ukrainian activists, which killed three and wounded 10 people.

That was not the first such bombing in the southeast of Ukraine; explosions set off by the insurgent underground have kept the situation tense for months.

Russia has “helped out” the Donetsk militia with weapons of all calibers and levels of destructive power, from semiautomatic pistols and assault rifles to heavy artillery, missiles, rockets and thermobaric bombs.

On Monday, columns of rusty tanks and armored vehicles with no identification numbers on them could be seen on both sides of the border.
The devastated population of Debaltseve came out of the basements after being terrified by artillery fire raining on the city for over two weeks.

Loudspeakers blared patriotic songs about the Donbass war on the main square on Sunday, where dozens of people lined up to receive packages with food aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Some victims of the war loaded the boxes with food onto the bicycles, others dragged their UCRC packages along the bumpy streets past buildings with no windows and giant holes in the walls.

“We live here like in an apocalypse,” Maria Fyodorova, 57, told The Daily Beast.

At the Debaltseve checkpoint the rebels under the Jesus flag also talked about apocalypse.

A rebel nicknamed Che Guevara said he discovered deep knowledge studying the life of the Argentine Marxist revolutionary.

He apologized for smelling “worse than a dog,” took his shirt off and showed off a portrait of Che on his chest.

Back in April, he said, he joined a separatist rebel militia, but after its units were pushed out of his hometown of Slovyansk, his family stayed behind.

It was the like the End of Days they heard predicted when they were children, joked Donbas Che: brother would take up weapons to fight against his brother.

And yet, while talk of Armageddon floated in Ukraine’s air, Russian President Vladimir Putin still said he rejected even the idea of a war between Russia and Ukraine.
“I think that such an apocalyptical scenario is unlikely to be possible and hope that it will never come to that,” Putin said on Monday.  

Ukraine To Buy ‘Defensive’ Weapons In U.A.E., President Says

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates -- Ukraine said it would buy what it called defensive weapons from the United Arab Emirates, bypassing the West’s reluctance to provide arms to help Kiev’s forces against Russia-backed rebels. 
Defense Exhibition and Conference in Abu Dhabi, didn’t specify what type of equipment Ukraine would buy or in what quantities, but said they would help Ukraine protect its territory from the separatists.

The U.A.E. Defense Ministry couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

It didn’t include any Ukraine-related arms deals in its daily contract update for the exposition.

Ukraine has for months requested lethal weapons from its backers in the West, but run into stiff resistance especially from Germany, France and Britain, which fear an escalation in the nearly yearlong conflict.  

The Obama administration recently began reconsidering supplying Javelin antitank missiles, small arms and ammunition to Ukraine, but delayed a decision during the latest European peace efforts, which brought a cease-fire agreement on Feb. 12.

Like a similar agreement in September, the truce has failed to fully take hold, as militants overran the strategic, Ukrainian-held town of Debaltseve last week.

In Washington on Tuesday, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. is considering imposing additional sanctions on Russia in the next few days, and that the next round would add Russian officials and entities currently sanctioned by Canada and the European Union.

He indicated at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that this would include Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia’s Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB.

Bortnikov, who is already subject to EU and Canadian sanctions, attended last week’s White House summit on extremism, leading the Russian delegation.

The U.S. helped arrange for Bortnikov’s visa and travel.
Mr. Kerry reiterated that U.S. lethal aid to Ukraine is “under active consideration.”

However, he also said Mr. Poroshenko and others have acknowledged that Ukraine can’t defeat Russia militarily.

“Nobody, not even Poroshenko … believes that they can get enough materiel that they can win,” Mr. Kerry said.

“He believes they might be able to raise the cost and do more damage.”

Mr. Kerry said officials are considering whether it is worth “raising the cost,” a view lawmakers from both parties have pressed.

“I hate to be cynical, but when it comes to Russia, they deserve it,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.) at a Senate Appropriations Committee subpanel hearing earlier Tuesday.

“I think we need to move and be ready to move quickly.”

Col. Andriy Lysenko, a Ukrainian security spokesman, said militants continued to shell Ukrainian positions on Tuesday, with one serviceman killed and seven injured in the last 24 hours.

He said that although the frequency of shelling had decreased, a full cease-fire needed to hold for two days before Kiev would pull its heavy weapons from the front lines—the next stage of the peace agreement.

Eduard Basurin, a rebel army commander, said his fighters had withdrawn heavy weapons from some towns on the front lines, but Col. Lysenko said the militants were regrouping elsewhere.
Russian President Vladimir Putin , who helped broker the Feb. 12 truce, said in a television interview in Moscow that “the situation will gradually normalize” if the full cease-fire deal is implemented.

That includes a decentralization of power that would hand rebel-held areas greater powers, including the right to create their own police force and appoint prosecutors and judges.

Foreign ministers from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France reaffirmed their commitment to the accord hashed out by their leaders, calling for “strict implementation” of all provisions.

Meeting in Paris, the envoys discussed the violence around Debaltseve and Mariupol—a Ukrainian port that has also been targeted by separatists—demanding that international monitors receive full access to the disputed areas.

“We call on all parties to cooperate,” the ministers said afterward, without saying which side was blocking the monitors.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is looking to bolster its armed forces, which mostly use aging equipment from the Soviet era, after losing its Crimea region to Russia in March 2014, and then large swaths of its Donetsk and Luhansk regions to pro-Moscow separatists.

But the fighting has caused havoc in the local weapons industry, which has suffered the loss of some facilities as it tries to maintain production of items such as armored combat vehicles.

The U.S. and some allies have provided Ukraine with nonlethal military aid, such as protective vests, night-vision goggles and counter-mortar radar systems.

U.K. Defense Secretary Michael Fallon on Tuesday announced additional nonlethal support “in light of continued Russian-backed aggression,” including medical, logistics, infantry and intelligence capacity-building.
He said up to 75 British troops would conduct the training from mid-March in Ukraine, but “well away” from the conflict area.

Prime Minister David Cameron told a parliamentary committee that Britain was “not at the stage of supplying lethal equipment” to Ukraine.

After a meeting with senior U.A.E. officials, Mr. Poroshenko said military technical-cooperation agreements were signed to bolster Ukraine’s arms industry, which he said also managed to secure several export orders.

He called the deals “extremely important so we have the money to modernize our armed forces.”

Ukraine has been forced to scrap some foreign orders as it diverts items intended for export to fighting at home, said Lukyan Selsky, spokesman for UkrOboronProm, which represents most of Ukraine’s defense industry.

“We had to put all the vehicles in the fight in eastern Ukraine,” he said.

Some production facilities in Crimea and eastern Ukraine also are no longer under government control, he said.

Ukrainian officials believe some of the equipment has been relocated to Russia, though they lack proof.

Some personnel who worked in eastern Ukraine have been relocated to other plants.
he ability to manufacture explosive powder, for instance, is being rebuilt after a key production site fell into rebel hands, Mr. Selsky said.

Ukraine also is trying to balance military needs with its limited financial resources.

The country, for instance, can’t afford its own Oplot main battle tank, Mr. Selsky said.

It has decided to continue their export and instead take older tanks that were in storage and upgrade them.

Ukraine PM To Russia: 'Get Out Of Our Land'

KIEV, Ukraine -- As the cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia looks shaky at best, the prime minister of Ukraine told CNBC that Russia was not withdrawing heavy weaponry from the east of the country and needed to end its "illegal invasion." 
"I have a key aspiration, and this is the aspiration of the entire Ukrainian nation: Russians, get out of our land. But they are still in Ukraine; Russian military and boots are still on Ukrainian ground," Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told CNBC Tuesday.

Less than two weeks ago, Russia and Ukraine signed a peace deal, brokered by France and Germany, which was meant to see the withdrawal of heavy weaponry by both sides from the eastern region of Ukraine, where fighting between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukraine military has been concentrated.

Speaking of the deal, Yatsenyuk alleged that Russian President Vladimir Putin had "cheated and outplayed" those involved in peace talks, including Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, the leaders of France and Germany who helped broker the deal, "and the entire European Union."

Although he said he supported Poroshenko's efforts to try to find a solution, and that peace was needed for Ukraine and for the "free world," he added that Putin presented a "threat to the entire western civilization."

The conflict, which started last spring, prompted the West to impose economic sanctions on Russia, which is believed to be supporting the rebels despite denying involvement.

More than 5,800 people have died in the fighting so far, according to the United Nations.

In an effort to show they were honoring the truce, pro-Russia separatists Tuesday invited reporters to witness the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line in east Ukraine, as agreed under the cease-fire deal.
But Ukraine accused the rebels of using the cover of withdrawal to reinforce for another advance, Reuters reported.

Speaking to CNBC in Kiev, Yatsenyuk said he was wary about Russia's intentions and that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not abiding by the ceasefire deal, known as "Minsk 2" as it was the second attempt to find a peaceful solution to the conflict.

"The Russian president hasn't executed any deal - either 'Minsk one' or 'Minsk two' - and Russian aggression severely affected Ukraine," he said, adding that he was "absolutely sure" the Ukrainians who wanted to join Russia had been affected by "Russian propaganda."

"This is not about the aspirations of some Ukrainians who still believe they have stronger links with the Russian Federation.

This is Russian propaganda, and Russian illegal annexation and the illegal invasion of Ukraine.


And Russia misused these people to legitimize it's invasion and annexation of Crimea," he said.

Crimea, in the southern part of Ukraine, was annexed by Russia following a referendum last March, although the vote is disputed by Ukraine which says Russia illegally seized the region.

Vadym Prystaiko, deputy foreign minister of Ukraine, told CNBC that Ukraine's 46 million population would like to know "what is in Putin's mind and how far he's going (to go)."

"What we know for sure is that he will go and grab as many lands as we will allow him," he told CNBC in Kiev Tuesday.
"We don't know whether he wants to stop at some point."

He reiterated Ukraine's desire to reintegrate the Crimean region back into wider Ukraine.

Ukraine's economy has been hit hard by the ongoing tensions, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $40 billion financial aid deal for the country earlier this month, although it depends on certain reforms being implemented.

In terms of military support, the U.S. has said it was considering arming Ukraine, although Europe is wary of such a move.

On Tuesday, however, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said British military personnel were to be sent to Ukraine to provide training and advice to the Ukrainian troops.

Yatsenyuk said he was confident that, with the help of the West, Ukraine could rid itself of Russian forces.

"My primary target is to get peace in my country, to pull back Russian forces, to restore the territorial integrity and the independence of Ukraine. Is it doable? Yes, if we act…with our Western partners," he said.

John Kerry, Lindsey Graham Agree Putin's Lying About Russian Soldiers In Ukraine, Assad Is Iran's Puppet In Syria

WASHINGTON, DC -- Vladimir Putin is lying when he denies not having Russian troops in Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday. 
Kerry was succinct when Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) asked at a Senate hearing if "you agree with me that when the Russians say there are no Russian troops in Ukraine they're lying?"  

"Yes," said Kerry.

"Why" Graham then asked.

"You're asking me?" responded Kerry as he nearly broke into a laugh. 

Kerry suggested that he couldn't read Putin's mind but saw the deceit as part of an extensive Russian propaganda campaign in a "tricky, tenuous, even grim" situation in Ukraine.

Graham, a foreign policy hawk, largely focused on his own suspicions of Iran, with whom the U.S. is negotiating over its controversial nuclear program.

He got Kerry to agree that Syrian dictator Bashar Assad was a "puppet" of Iran.

"Pretty much," Kerry said.

He also concurred that Iran was fomenting unrest in Yemen but would not speak publicly about Graham's contention that Iran was "activity trying to build" an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM.

On ISIS, Kerry parted ways with Graham, who says he does not believe the group is being meaningfully checked in Syria.
"I don't agree," Kerry said.

Kerry's appearance was the first of two before Senate panels Tuesday and in part reflected a push for more dollars to deal with a flurry of predicaments worldwide.

It does no good, he said, to give Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko standing ovations, as Congress did in September, but not then "stand up and deliver" with substantially more aid.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) clearly agreed, bashed Russia for violating a recent ceasefire agreement and, once again, "promising but not delivering."

"This was an invasion of a sovereign country by Russia and they continue to seize territory," said Durbin, who wondered what the United States' "Plan B" might be.

Kerry said there was such a plan but strongly intimated it would be an escalation of financial sanctions, which he argues have badly hurt the Russian economy, if not deterred Putin.

As for actual, potentially lethal military assistance, Kerry said that matter was still under consideration by President Obama.

"We need to move, and move quickly," said Durbin, clearly signaling that the Senate's No. 2 Democrat thinks the strategy of Obama, his close friend, has come up short.

Sunday 15 February 2015

Fears For Ukraine’s Ceasefire As Clashes With Russia-Backed Rebels Intensify

ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine -- Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebel militias in the east of the country intensified on Saturday as fears grew for the durability of a ceasefire agreement that took effect at 12:01am on Sunday local time (10:01pm GMT on Saturday). 
In a live midnight broadcast, the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, issued the order for the country’s armed forces to hold their fire.

In a statement before issuing that order, Poroshenko expressed concern over risks to the ceasefire posed by the unrest that raged on Saturday around the strategic government-held railway hub of Debaltseve, which has been besieged by separatist forces.

In an inauspicious omen for the prospects of any cessation of hostilities, rebels have said they will not consider any battles for the town to be a violation of the ceasefire.

The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine had backed the truce as part of a peace plan agreed in Minsk on Thursday, but fighting escalated in the hours before it came into effect.

According to Poroshenko, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Russia-backed rebels had bargained for a “preparatory delay” rather than an immediate ceasefire.

The opposing sides were apparently spending the extra time solidifying positions on two main fronts, along the Azov Sea coast near Mariupol and around the city of Debaltseve to the north, which Russian fighters have compared with the second world war battle of Stalingrad.

Both cities are under Ukrainian control, but hold strategic value for the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway republics.

Even before the peace plan was agreed, 50 Russian tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles had crossed into Ukraine, Kiev claimed.

The Ukrainians were moving up reinforcements on Saturday as well, in the hope that a ceasefire would allow them to reach Debaltseve, a national guard commander told the Observer.

Political statements in the runup to the ceasefire suggested neither Kiev nor Moscow fully expected fighting to cease.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia could not affect developments on the ground, reiterating the Kremlin’s claim that it was not a party to the conflict despite overwhelming evidence that Russian armour and troops have been in Ukraine.

British equipment is now also reportedly in Ukraine after a private firm sold 20 decommissioned British army Saxon armoured vehicles to Kiev.

Kiev also seemed to be bracing itself for continued clashes.

Poroshenko warned on Saturday that, if the ceasefire did not work, he would declare a state of martial law across the country.

Kiev has previously refrained from doing so for fear that it would not only cause discontent among the population but also give Moscow an excuse to escalate tensions.

In a telephone call with Poroshenko hours before the start of the ceasefire period, US president Barack Obama expressed his “deep concern about the ongoing violence, particularly in and around Debaltseve”.

The White House said in a statement that the two leaders “emphasised the pressing need” for all parties to implement the ceasefire and agreed to remain in contact in the coming days.

Obama also spoke with German Chancellor Angela Merkel who took a lead role in negotiating the cease-fire agreement.

US secretary of state, John Kerry, spoke to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Saturday, urging full implementation of the Minsk agreements, including a midnight ceasefire.

Before the ceasefire deadline, statements by separatist officials cast doubt on whether fighting would end at the appointed hour.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the rebel leader in the city of Donetsk, was quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency as saying his fighters would not allow Ukrainian forces to escape Debaltseve.

Separatists have said the Ukrainian troops there would be offered only the opportunity to surrender.

Many fighters and civilians in eastern Ukraine do not believe the truce can last, since they have already seen ceasefires declared in June and September fail as the opposing sides continued fighting, both claiming to be responding to attacks.

The Ukrainian military said 11 soldiers had been killed and 40 wounded on Friday and seven killed and 23 wounded on Saturday.

For weeks, rebels have been attempting to cut off Debaltseve, which holds a key railway junction, and seize it from the reported 8,000 Ukrainian troops defending the city.

Speaking after the Minsk agreements, Putin suggested it was fully surrounded and Ukrainian forces should agree to abandon it, but Kiev has insisted that it is not cut off and will remain government territory.  

Although rebels have been able to virtually surround Debaltseve and pound it with rockets and artillery, the road connecting the city with Ukrainian forces in Artemivsk is not fully under either side’s control.

Pro-Russia forces shelled the city 15 times and attempted to storm it early on Saturday, Kiev said.

“Fighters are destroying the city of Debaltseve,” regional police head Vyacheslav Abroskin wrote on his Facebook page.

“There is incessant shelling of civilian homes and buildings. The city is burning. A Grad [rocket] scored a direct hit on the police station.”  

On the road to Debaltseve, a national guard squad commander with the call-sign Orest said his unit had arrived from the northern city of Kharkiv to reinforce troops pinned down in the besieged city, where the fighting “makes Stalingrad look tame,” he said.

Ukrainian Grad rocket launchers boomed in the distance.

They had not been able to get through to Debaltseve due to intense shelling and machine gun fire further down the highway, but would try again, he said.

As he spoke, a Grad rocket launcher sped back toward Artemivsk, having fired all 40 of its tubes.

“If we don’t shoot, then they’ll cut off the road,” he said.

Members of the national guard medical unit in Artemivsk said they were preparing ambulances to go to Debaltseve if the ceasefire allowed them to get through.

They had 30 cots laid out in a former clinic ready to take in wounded soldiers.

Drivers were last able to take ambulances through on Thursday.

The unit had lost four of 11 ambulances, and at least one medic had been killed and one captured in recent days, said Ihor Ilkiv, commander of the main national guard medical squad in Artemivsk.  

“We’re seeing more casualties,” said an ambulance driver with the call-sign Biker.

“The mortar and rocket attacks are getting worse. It seems like the ceasefire will only be the start of more problems.”

On Saturday, a military ambulance delivered the body of a soldier killed in the village of Paschnya, which is in the no-man’s land between Luhanske and Debaltseve, to the mortuary in Artemivsk.

The medic, who declined to give his name, said it was the third dead man he had delivered in 24 hours.

Many more dead and wounded were trapped in Debaltseve, he said.

“The fighting has got worse, a lot worse, over the past two to three days,” he said, wiping his hands on his bloody flak jacket.

“We can only get to the outskirts of Debaltseve, then they start shelling and we can’t get through.”

Meanwhile, Kiev has been waging what Poroshenko said was a counter-offensive meant to move the demarcation line near Mariupol back to where it was in September.

The Azov volunteer battalion fighting there reported that the village of Shirokine, between Mariupol and rebel positions near the Russian border, had been almost completely destroyed in “tank battles” and artillery and rocket attacks.

Elsewhere in the east, populated areas on both sides of the frontlines have been suffering attacks in recent days.

At least a dozen civilians were killed on Friday as shelling hit the government-controlled towns of Hornyak and Schastye and the rebel-controlled cities of Horlivka and Donetsk.

What appeared to be a rocket attack struck the town of Svitlodarsk near the Ukrainian lines while the Observer was there on Friday.  

Anna, a shopkeeper whose store was hit by a shell on Monday, said she did not believe the ceasefire would last.

She sleeps on a makeshift cot in the back room over her store.

“I’m not going to do major renovations; they’ll just bomb it again,” she said before running into the back room as incoming rockets whined overhead.

Kerry also expressed concern to Lavrov about the fierce fighting around the town of Debaltseve, and efforts by Russia and the separatists to cut off the town in advance of the ceasefire, a senior US State Department official said.