KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine may export about 4 million metric tons of grain by the end of next March even if the government lengthens caps on outbound shipments, according to UkrAgroConsult.
An extension of the limits until March 31 would still allow traders to ship 1 million tons of grain a month, Liza Malyshko, an analyst at the Kiev-based researcher, said today by phone.
Exporters have made shipments equating to about 11 percent of the current quotas, she said.
The Economy Ministry yesterday proposed extending the caps, scheduled to expire Dec. 31, through 2011’s first quarter. It also suggested adding an extra 1 million tons of corn and 500,000 tons of wheat to the current 2.7 million-ton export quota.
The government imposed the curbs in October after dry weather damaged crops.
Ukraine has exported 5.3 million tons of grain since the current marketing year started on July 1, of which 250,000 to 300,000 tons fell under the quota, according to Malyshko. That leaves about 2.4 million tons to be used, she said.
The current quota comprises 2 million tons of corn, 500,000 tons of wheat and 200,000 tons of barley.
Ukraine’s grain-export potential for the current marketing year is between 14 million and 15 million tons, depending on final stockpile calculations by the national statistics office later this month, Malyshko said.
Export potential in the year may be about 6 million tons for both corn and wheat and about 3.6 million tons for barley, according to UkrAgroConsult. Ukraine has shipped 2.22 million tons of wheat, 2.3 million tons of barley and 440,000 tons of corn so far in the period, Malyshko said.