Vladimir Tikhomirov, Chief economist UralSib
The rouble will not collapse. Russia has an administered currency, which means that any major changes in the rouble exchange rate could be triggered by market movements to the same extent that they could come from policymakers' decisions. This is a major risk factor for investors, and the heritage of last year's devaluation is likely to remain embedded in investors' minds for quite some time. However, we believe that in the coming months the chances of the rouble breaking out of the trading corridor that was set by the Central Bank (RUB26-41 to USD/EUR basket) are close to zero. By the end of the year, we expect the rouble to trade at its current level of RUB31-32/USD and the US at $1.45 /EUR.
Vladimir Osakovsky, Chief economist UniCredit
We think that the rouble is likely to remain under pressure in the remainder of the year, mostly due to continued inflow of fresh rouble liquidity from the federal budget, which is running an increasingly large deficit. Coming on top of relatively low interest rates and lack of support from rising oil prices, this should push the rouble a little bit further down even from its current levels. Overall, our forecast is that by the end of this year the currency will fall by another 1.5 roubles against the bi-currency basket to some RUB39.5. Taking into account our USD1.45/EUR forecast this implies an exchange rate close to RUB32.8/USD.
Ivan Ivanchenko, Head of Investment Strategy VTB
The rouble is now defined by two major factors. The first is external: the price of oil. Risk appetite and generous liquidity have driven oil prices to above $70/bbl recently, but the fundamentals hardly look supportive. In fact, they are rather bearish near term.
The second factor, luckily, is domestic: Central Bank policy. The current policy choice is a stable rouble, despite the harsh economic reality calling for a much easier monetary policy and a weaker currency. But unless the balance of payments turns into a deficit, the Central Bank is unlikely to change its stance. I think that the markets are pricing in a too-aggressive recovery, and any disappointment would lead to heightened risk aversion which means dollar strength. This would also put pressure on the oil price. So my take is the basket will drift higher, perhaps towards around 40, with the dollar-rouble exchange rate around 35 by the year end.
Anton Struchenevsky, Analyst Troika Dialog
It is absolutely impossible to say, because we will see very high volatility, so I can give only a range. But I think the rouble against the dollar will be between 31and 33. This will be affected by the oil price, and the euro-dollar exchange rate is also very important. The third thing is the level of budget expenditures, and in December we will see significant volatility of the rouble against the basket and against the dollar. The more government money that goes into the economy, the higher the volatility we will see.
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