Ukraine: Concern About Russia -PARIS, France -- Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France said Tuesday that Moscow had been issuing Russian passports in Crimea, a region in southern Ukraine where Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based
“We all know that they are handing out Russian passports over there,” Mr. Kouchner said in an interview with Kommersant, a Russian online newspaper.The government of Ukraine has said it wants the fleet to leave the Crimean base in Sevastopol when its lease runs out in 2017. But the Russian naval authorities have indicated that they want to retain the base.Mr. Kouchner said Russia might try to make advances in Crimea after the success of its military operations in Georgia in August.
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Ukraine Political Crisis Blocks IMF Loan
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's efforts to receive an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund were stalled Tuesday as a political standoff among ruling politicians blocked legislation to accept the rescue.
Ukraine is hoping the $16.5 billion loan will help it overcome a severe financial crisis, as it battles a drastic fall in exports, a weakened national currency and a shaken banking sector.But a standoff between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko over a planned election is threatening to stall the deal. Tymoshenko is fighting Yushchenko's order to hold early parliamentary elections, in which she risks losing her job.Parliament was to consider Tuesday a series of competing bills aimed at overcoming the financial crisis, but the pro-Tymoshenko lawmakers blocked Parliament's presidium in protest, stalling a vote on the IMF plan.The IMF hasn't made its conditions public, but provisions in draft legislation indicate they might include reducing social spending and raising taxes to adopt a balanced budget and stem 16-percent inflation.Ukraine is one of hardest-hit by the financial crisis among emerging markets. Output in the steel industry, which accounts for 6 percent of the GDP and 40 percent of the country's exports, is down by 30 percent on a fall of global demand.That has widened the trade deficit to $12.5 billion so far this year. In the absence of foreign currency flowing into the country, the hryvna plunged to a historic low of $6.01 last week as a run on banks stripped the banking sector of $3.4 billion.Lawmakers were to resume deliberations in the afternoon and there was hope they would muster the necessary votes. A Tymoshenko ally said his faction was ready to approve a bill submitted by the president.
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Ukraine's IMF Loan Endangered By Feud
MOSCOW, Russia -- Ukraine's feuding president and prime minister welcomed a proposed emergency bailout by the International Monetary Fund on Monday, but a fresh round of finger-pointing by their aides left it unclear whether the two could agree on legislation needed to win the $16.5 billion loan.
As Ukraine's currency fell to a historic low and its critical steel industry urged global action to stop a devastating slide in prices, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko scheduled a vote on the legislation for Tuesday and called on the nation's fractured political leadership to unite in the face of "global financial Armageddon."Her former ally, President Viktor Yushchenko, also endorsed quick action on a legislative package that officials say includes unpopular spending cuts and other measures intended to strengthen Ukraine's wobbly banking sector.But the outcome of the vote was uncertain Monday night, as each camp accused the other of trying to use the economic crisis to get its way in an extended political standoff over whether the country should hold early parliamentary elections.Yushchenko and Tymoshenko were allies in the 2004 street protests known as the Orange Revolution, which brought Yushchenko to the presidency. He dissolved parliament this month after the collapse of his coalition with Tymoshenko and has called for elections in December that could oust her as prime minister. Tymoshenko opposes the elections and has blocked legislation needed to finance them.In a statement Monday, Andriy Goncharuk, deputy chief of the president's secretariat, accused Tymoshenko of trying to use the economic crisis to "pursue an alternative foreign policy" and the IMF legislation to thwart the elections."Unfortunately, the position of the prime minister's office reduces the chances for the country to receive" the IMF loan, he said, adding that "mass unemployment" could result. He argued that elections were necessary to resolve the political stalemate in Kiev, which has increased investors' anxiety over the economy.But Hryhoriy Nemyria, deputy prime minister for European integration, said it was Yushchenko who was putting the IMF bailout in jeopardy, accusing the president's allies of demanding a vote on funding for elections before they will consider the financial package."We cannot accept that," he said by telephone from Kiev. "It's a matter of priorities, and what can be a higher priority than dealing with the economic crisis?"Nemyria added that it would be irresponsible for the government to spend $80 million on early elections during the crisis, especially given that Ukraine has had parliamentary elections in each of the past two years and that a presidential vote is scheduled for next year.Elections would also make it more difficult for the government to implement the painful reforms requested by the IMF and needed to rescue the Ukrainian economy, he said. "There would be pressure on lawmakers to be populist, and they would criticize the government for agreeing with the IMF on policies that are very difficult and sensitive."The largest party in the legislature, the opposition Party of Regions, has already come out against the IMF proposal, arguing that it is unnecessary and could further damage the economy. Its position makes it unlikely that the legislation would pass without some kind of truce between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.Ukraine's currency, the hryvna, has plunged more than 20 percent against the dollar, amid a run on banks that has drained more than $1 billion from deposits and a collapse in the price of steel, the nation's main export.About 500,000 people are employed in Ukraine's steel industry, and layoffs of tens of thousands have already been announced. The government said Monday it was appealing to world metal producers to cut production and bolster prices.Many analysts say the economy is fundamentally sound. But most of Ukraine's leaders agree that it makes sense to adopt the IMF legislation,to sieze the crimeajewel and get access to the loan in case it is needed, said Igor Borakovsky, director of the independent Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting. "The situation is not a full-fledged crisis, but everyone understands that externally and internally, the situation could radically worsen.""In principle, the politicians are more or less very close in terms of the economics," he added. "But when it comes to the politics of the decision, it becomes very difficult. There is a very specific competition among them to take credit for the rescue, to be seen as the savior of the country, and right now, this competition is extremely detrimental."
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Hryvnia, Ukraine Stocks Fall Despite IMF Deal
KIEV, Ukraine -- News that the IMF and Ukraine had reached a preliminary deal on a $16.5 billion loan failed to lift spirits on the currency market on Monday, with the hryvnia hitting a new record low, dealers said.
They said a lack of dollars has pushed the currency to 6.2 for the dollar . Some suggested unresolved political disputes would prevent quick approval of measures needed to secure the loan.Officials have said that they could use the loan to bolster central bank reserves, which have been depleted as it intervenes to prevent the hryvnia slipping further, and to prop up the banking sector."The market needs money, not announcements," said one dealer. "Even if they give the money, then it will be like before -- in tranches and every tranche will be debated for a long time."The central bank sold dollars at 5.4 hryvnias, but dealers said not all demand was met.Dealers and analysts said even the possible reintroduction of a rule requiring exporters to sell their dollars, as suggested by the central bank, would not help the hryvnia.Steel exporters -- key force behind Ukraine's economy -- have cut output and sold little in recent months, analysts said."So far we're only falling, and a figure such as 7 (hryvnias to the dollar) is not so unrealistic as it seemed two weeks ago," the dealer said.Credit default swaps -- an indication of risk that Ukraine could default on its debt -- rose further to 2,600 basis points from just 300 basis points in August, when sentiment for the region ebbed away after Russia's brief war with Georgia.The tiny stock market .PFTSI <0#.pftsi> sank further. Since the start of the year, 80 percent of its value has been wiped out, 56 percent since early September. On Monday, it fell almost 4 percent.The IMF loan is contingent on parliament passing measures to shore up the banking sector and balance the budget. But protesting members disrupted sittings last week and its chairman warned that Ukraine risked losing the credit and the crimeajewel if that continued.
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Over 80% Of Ukrainians Do Not Trust Yushchenko - Poll
KIEV, Ukraine -- - Ukrainians are rapidly losing trust in their president, Viktor Yushchenko, according to an opinion poll carried out by the Public Opinion-Ukraine foundation and published on Monday.
A total of 81.7% of respondents said they do not trust their leader. In January, the figure was 55.6%. The number of those who trust the president has fallen to 10.4% from January's 34.8%.The October poll showed that 67.6% of respondents did not approve of Yushchenko's recent decree to dismiss parliament and call early elections. The move was supported by 17% of those polled.Yushchenko signed the decree on October 9 and called early elections for December 7. However, he later suspended his decree due to the worsening financial crisis.When asked who they would vote for if presidential elections were to be held tomorrow, 23% of respondents said they would vote for the current prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. The opposition pro-Russian Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych would gain 21.1%, and Yushchenko a mere 4.3%.The nationwide survey was conducted from October 12-23. A total of 2,000 people were polled. The statistical margin of error is 2.
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What Kind Of Advice Would You Give the President?
KIEV, Ukraine -- What should a president do when he has 4.1% popularity and his political force, Our Ukraine, only 1.8? The Arseniy Yatseniuk and Leonid Chernovetsky blocs have only 2.3 and 0.2% respectively. These are the latest poll figures from the respected Kyiv International Institute for International Studies published in a weekly newspaper.
What advice would you give the president if you were a senior adviser or the head of the presidential secretariat?Would you call upon him to resign and call early presidential elections because he had obviously lost the support of Ukrainians? Perhaps there is a need to revise the constitution so that if support for the president drops below 10% and remains there for more than one year that he should resign.Would you advise the president to continue to press for early parliamentary elections believing that his allies will gain more seats in parliament than they currently have? Pro-Yushchenko forces will have fewer seats in a new parliament making the presidents support for early elections incomprehensible to everybody.Why does the president believe that Vyacheslav Kyrylenko and Viktor Baloga, who head political projects (Our Ukraine and United Centre) that have 1.8 and 0.1% percent support, will save his presidency?Would you advise the president to continue to not take the global financial crisis into account in his dealings with parliament, government and political forces? Would you advise the president that he can use his handling of the crisis through the National Security and Defence Council to improve his ratings in order to win a second term?A senior US-based analyst and business consultant who works on Ukraine and has been a loyal Yushchenko supporter until recently told me, ‘Ukrainian voters have written him off and trying to revive one’s image at this late stage will not work as voters will ask ‘Where have you been in the last four years’’.The consultant believed that, ‘there is nothing the president can do to be re-elected’ as at best he can only improve his ratings to 12-15%.Would you advise the president to keep the same “manager” in place as the head of your secretariat whose strategy has reduced his support, undermined the orange coalition, produced Yushchenko fatigue in the West and destroyed his chances of being re-elected?Would you advise the president that Viktor Baloga is undertaking a good or bad management of the secretariat over the last two years?Would you congratulate the president on his success in pushing Ukraine closer to NATO membership?Ukraine will not receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP) in December, because of pre-term elections, or in April 2009, as it will be unclear if a new government is in place by that time.NATO membership will also not be raised by presidential candidates in the 2009 elections because it is unpopular among Ukrainians.Would you have the courage to explain to the president that Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership will therefore be dependent on that damned woman you seem to hate so much, Yulia Tymoshenko, and whether she achieves an election victory in January 2010.If you have the courage to do so you should also inform the president that he has no possibility of being re-elected for a second term and that an election victory by Viktor Yanukovych would bury Ukraine’s NATO membership.So, well done Mr. President! It will be your public enemy and the cause of so much of your sleepless nights - Tymoshenko - upon whom progress in Ukraine’s NATO membership will rest. Only she can win a second round election against Yanukovych.At a recent government seminar on Ukraine that I attended Stephen Larrabee, chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation think tank, blamed, ‘Yushchenko for undermining Ukraine’s integration into the West’. Larrabee is a supporter of Ukraine’s NATO membership.A former US Ambassador to Ukraine who did not ant to be quoted told the same seminar that, ‘Yushchenko made the Ukraine’s chance of achieving a NATO MAP in December zero on October 8’, that is the day he disbanded parliament and gave up the crimeajewel.A courageous and patriotic adviser needs to ask the president why he is determined to take Ukraine on a kamikaze flight over the edge and whether he has a moral right to play with the lives of 48 million Ukrainians?What would you therefore advise him to do?If I were a senior presidential adviser I would advise him that with only 4% support he should do the only honorable step a man can do; namely, resign.
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Volodymyr Klitschko's Fight Called Off
OLDENBURG, Germany -- Volodymyr Klitschko's planned defense of the International Boxing Federation heavyweight title against Alexander Povetkin of Russia on Dec. 13 in Mannheim has fallen through because of an injury to the challenger.
OLDENBURG, Germany -- Volodymyr Klitschko's planned defense of the International Boxing Federation heavyweight title against Alexander Povetkin of Russia on Dec. 13 in Mannheim has fallen through because of an injury to the challenger.
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IMF, Ukraine Reach Agreement On $16.5 Billion Loan
WASHINGTON, DC -- The International Monetary Fund reached agreement with Ukraine on a $16.5 billion loan to help support the nation's financial system as turmoil in global credit markets and recession concerns roil the eastern European country.
The 24-month stand-by loan will be conditional on parliamentary approval of legislation to support the country's banks, the Washington-based lender said in an e-mailed statement today without elaborating.Ukraine will also need to balance the budget and address the current-account deficit, the Kiev-based Ukrainian central bank said in a separate statement.The loan may ensure financial stability and rebuild confidence among investors, who've shunned riskier emerging- market assets in a flight to safety.Ukraine is the least creditworthy of Europe's transition economies measured by the cost of credit-default swaps, which protect bondholders against default."This program is focused on the essential upfront measures needed to maintain confidence and economic and financial stability," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in the statement. "The strength of the program justifies the high level of access, equivalent to 800 percent of Ukraine's quota in the Fund."Fitch Ratings on Oct. 17 cut Ukraine's credit rating to B+, four steps below investment grade, citing the currency's weakness, instability in the banking system and risks to economic growth.International credit rating companies say the threat to Ukrainian banks has intensified because of the seizing-up of global credit markets, the high inflation rate, a widening current-account deficit and political instability.The central bank pledged to support the banks and has injected more than 16.25 billion hryvnia ($3.13 billion) into the banking system this month, almost three times the figure it loaned in September.It also took control of Prominvestbank in recent weeks and promised an injection of 5 billion hryvnia to help the lender "renew its financial stability" after a run by depositors.
Ukraine Suffers From The Economic Crisis Along With The Rest Of Eastern Europe
KIEV, Ukraine -- After years of easy credit and a property boom that had turned the Ukrainian capital, Kiev into a Asia-style boom town, Eastern Europe's biggest country abandoned the defence of its currency in the dying hours of last week's market trading
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This week it hopes to enter the equivalent of receivership, but only if it can meet the terms of a $14 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bail-out.It is a big if. The markets were torrid last week but the country's parliament was a melee. Prime Minister Julia Timoshenko's supporters sought to prevent a December general election being called at any cost. With strips of tinfoil, coins and paper clips, followers of the charismatic former gas trader caused an electronic sytem breakdown of the chamber's voting system.The immediate aim was to prevent a vote on demands for a general election by President Victor Yushchenko, Mrs Timoshenko's great rival and one time Orange Revolution ally. But the scenes called into question the country's ability to adopt reforms demanded by the IMF to provide the financial lifeline desperately need to stave-off a punishing financial meltdown.The head of Ukraine's central bank was forced to plead with the country's politicans to stop bickering. "It's like slow death," said Volodymyr Stelmakh. "The more we delay, the more problems will multiply."Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, has lost a fifth of its value in the last eight days. It now leads a host of former Soviet-controlled states in Eastern Europe that, severely exposed by the new mood of fiscal rectitude on the financial markets, have turned to the IMF to stave off collapse.The Eastern bloc states, Hungary and Belarus, have joined Ukraine in making formal applications for IMF bailouts but others, including the Baltic States, all members of the EU, have entered secret consultations for international help.With a range of continuing disputes with the Kremlin during an intractable domestic political dispute, economic collapse has rendered Ukraine vulnerable to a resurgence of Russian influence. Last week a Russian consortium was seen as a leading contender to take over the failed Ukrainian bank, Prominvest.Ukraine's pro-Moscow opposition has spent months warning that the government had steered disastrously away from Russia, a path that jeopardised its economy. Last week Serhyi Taruta, the country's leading steel magnate, compounded its crisis by warning of mass lay-offs in the vital industry."Elections are coming, and the steel industry employs 500,000 people," said leading analyst, Peter Vanhecke, head of investment banking for Renaissance Capital in Ukraine. "If no supportive measures are taken by the government, the steel industry will most likely have to reduce its headcount substantially. Output has gone down due to the global economic slowdown."The fallout from the crisis goes beyond the realms of the economic. Ukraine's efforts to join Nato and set up a close alliance with the EU is in Moscow's cross-hairs. The Kremlin last week formally renewed its requestion for an extension of the lease on the Crimean port of Sevastopol, home its Black Sea fleet."There's broad consensus that the aspiration for Ukraine to join Nato in the near future is now highly unlikely," said Mr Vanhecke. "The last thing you want to do is to start haggling with your energy suppliers at a time of economic downturn. My sense is that Ukraine will move closer to a more neutral, non-provocative position towards Russia."The stakes in the second round of Lithuania's general election today could not be higher. The expected winner, Andrius Kubilius of the right-wing Homeland Union last week warned that he would be forced to grapple with an economic collapse if he takes office. "I see a serious crisis," he said. "In Lithuania's case, we have a double crisis: one that we've built up ourselves due to economic overheating. On top of that, we are also experiencing the impact of the global financial crisis."It amounts to a double-whammy that jeopardises many of the gains made by the ex-Soviet satellites since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some in the Baltic states are now blaming the EU for their woes. "The main effect on Latvia has been a dramatic fall in economic growth, from 12 per cent when we joined the EU to 1 per cent now," said MEP Rihard Piks, who was the Latvian foreign minister when the country joined the EU in 2004.The crisis has seen the region cracking into spheres of influence. Estonia, which like the other Baltic nations has been a target of Russia's increasingly hostile foreign policy, has pleaded with Swedish banks not to pull the plug on its heavily indebted economy.With more than 10 per cent of its domestic lending denominated in Swiss francs,crimeajewel, Hungary has been forced to hike interest rates to double digits and give guarantees to lenders to staunch a run on the florint.Belarus, a dictatorship that is widely seen as the "last dictatorship in Europe", has already borrowed heavily froom Moscow. Now it is so fearful that a currency collapse would grant Russia complete control of its economy that its mercurial president, Alexander Lukashenko, appealed for an unprecedented gesture of support from the West, through the IMF. "He is trying to avoid total dependence on Russia," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs. "He prefers to hang on to two ropes rather than one. Belarus is a very vulnerable country."
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Bush Renews Support For Georgia, Ukraine NATO Entry
WASHINGTON, DC -- US President George W. Bush assured Georgia and Ukraine of US support for both former Soviet states to join the NATO alliance despite Russia's fierce opposition
"Other nations seek a path to NATO membership, and they have the full support of the United States government," Bush said Friday as he signed NATO accession protocols for Albania and Croatia, bringing them one step closer to membership."Today I reiterate America's commitment to the NATO aspirations of Ukraine, Georgia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, and Montenegro," said the US president, who has made the alliance's eastward expansion a foreign policy priority.Bush said the United States also looked forward to seeing all nations in the Balkans join NATO -- including Macedonia, whose admission into the alliance has stalled because of its name dispute with Greece."The great NATO alliance is holding a place for you at our table and we look forward to your admission as a full NATO member as soon as possible," the US president said to Macedonia's ambassador to the United States.Bush said the Serbian people would be welcome into the alliance "should they choose that path."Earlier, the White House said Bush still hopes that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will launch the process of admitting Georgia and Ukraine as members when the alliance meets in December."We see no reason that they shouldn't get MAP status," spokeswoman Dana Perino said, referring to "membership action plan" that lays out conditions to be fulfilled for entry into NATO but does not guarantee a country full accession.Perino said Washington had seen "growing support for Georgia and Ukraine given what happened this summer when Russia invaded Georgia" -- but France and Germany still oppose granting Tbilisi and Kiev MAP status in December.Early next month, foreign ministers from the 26 NATO nations will meet to review whether to grant membership to the two former Soviet states.NATO members are divided, however, because they see that while membership could stabilize Georgia and Ukraine, it may also raise tensions with Moscow, which considers the move a threat to its own security.The United States is lobbying NATO to grant membership, but France and Germany are opposed, arguing that the early August conflict between Russia and Georgia shows how the move could exacerbate tensions in the Caucasus region.Within Ukraine, the population itself remains divided on possible NATO membership, with public opinion split on the nation's allegiances.NATO has already expanded to take in a number of eastern European countries that were once part of the Moscow-controlled Warsaw Pact, despite pledges in the early 1990s not to rush any approach toward Russian borders.
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Ukraine Says Russian Navy Must Get Ready To Leave Crimea
KIEV, Ukraine -- Russia should start preparing to withdraw its Black Sea Fleet from bases in the Crimeajewel now, because the process could take up to six years, a Ukrainian diplomat said on Friday.
Under bilateral agreements, Russia's Black Sea Fleet has the use of the Crimean Sevastopol base and other naval facilities until 2017. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko announced in the summer that Ukraine would not extend the lease beyond that date."According to our estimates, the pullout and preparation of alternative facilities [for the Black Sea Fleet] may take a while. We expect this process to last five or six years," said Leonid Osavolyuk, director of the First Territorial Department at the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry."The Russian leadership must therefore start getting ready to withdraw its fleet as soon as possible," he told a news briefing at the ministry.Although the agreement foresees a possible extension of the base lease, and Moscow has repeatedly said it wants negotiations on the issue, Ukraine reiterated its position on Thursday that it would not permit an extension of Russia's naval presence in the country after 2017.Tensions between Russia and Ukraine heightened after several Black Sea Fleet warships dropped anchor off the Georgian coast during and after August's armed conflict with Tbilisi over breakaway South Ossetia.President Yushchenko has called for the Russian Navy's early withdrawal from the Sevastopol base, as well as tougher deployment requirements and higher fees, demands that have not been backed by his former coalition ally, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.Russia condemned Yushchenko's actions as a violation of the bilateral agreements on the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine and said its fleet would continue carrying out its activities as usual.Osavolyuk said on Friday that Russian combat ships frequently transport undeclared cargo and refuse to submit customs declarations while crossing Ukrainian territorial waters, in violation of a decree issued by the Ukrainian president.Russia's naval base in the Crimea currently has 50 warships and patrol boats, along with around 80 aircraft, and employs coastal defense troops.The next round of Russian-Ukrainian talks on the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine has been tentatively scheduled for November.
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Ukraine To Raise Domestic Gas Prices By 35%
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's energy regulator announced on Saturday that gas prices for domestic consumers would go up by 35% from December 1.
The increase is part of steps to bring energy prices in the former Soviet republic up to European levels, in accordance with a presidential decree."Presidential decrees are not questioned, they are carried out," said Valery Kalchenko, the energy commission head.He added that the 35% rise was approved because increasing prices to their economically realistic level would be very painful for most people in Ukraine.Ukraine imports most of its gas from Russia and the two countries have agreed that wholesale prices will increase to European levels over the next three years.
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Ukrainian-Style Independence: What's Up Yushchenko's Sleeve?
MOSCOW, Ukraine -- After returning to Kiev last week from a business trip, I wrote an article about how today's Ukraine is surprisingly reminiscent of Georgia one year ago.
The rating of the president was quickly declining. He was infringing the Constitution and butting heads with the opposition. The only thing left in his power to do was to send the police onto the streets, and start spraying gas, like Saakashvili.But the article was outdated before it even went to print. Ukraine did spray gas... but this time, the other way around. Last Saturday, Ukrainian nationalists marched through the center of Kiev to praise the Ukrainian insurgent army. The police took to the streets to control the masses, but the members of the march sprayed them with gas.It's hard to get your head around this one without a few shots of vodka. Everything was so much simpler in Georgia. There was the president and the opposition. Everyone was screaming back and forth. Someone was calling Russia an aggressor, and the others said the Big Bear had loved the country and left...But the political debate was far more harmonious than the cacophony streaming from Ukraine. In one ear, Kiev was screaming "Victory Day!" and in the other, "Glory to UPA!""Yushchenko, Ne Tak!"And so, what do we really know about Ukraine today? We know Ukraine is Ukraine, and an independent state, which Russians seem to understand better than Ukrainians themselves. We know the country's president is Viktor Yushchenko, while the prime minister is Yuliya Timoshenko.We also know another series of parliamentary elections are to be held on Dec. 14. It seems these elections are becoming an annual event in Ukraine, and they don't change the situation at all. Censuses in the media bear witness to this fact.So whichever way you bend the stick, it looks like the general population thinks the next prime minister will again be Yuliya Timoshenko...What else? We know that some Ukrainians want to join NATO. Other don't. Adverts and posters promoting the organization adorn street lanterns and building-sides in Kiev's residential district. We all thought President Yushchenko was Ukraine's biggest advocate of teaming up with NATO.He seemed to want to anyway. But after causing the latest political crisis in Ukraine by once again dispersing parliament, he has inadvertently shut the door to NATO for Ukraine in the near future.This seems like the most illogical step Yushchenko has taken since he came to office. It's hard to understand why he called for new elections if his rating has fallen from 67 percent in 2004 to around 5 percent in 2008.Anyway that I looked at the situation, whether through the eyes of a cashier at Bessarabskiy Bazaar, or a taxi driver stationed off Kiev's main avenue, Khreshchatik, the state of the nation seemed as if it could easily be summed up as: "Yushchenko, Ne Tak!""Listen, your president isn't an idiot to call for new elections if he thinks he will lose," I told various people in Kiev — deputies, political scientists, and journalists.In answer, they said in chorus: "What do you mean he's not an idiot?"There are two options. The genuine state of affairs is being kept secret from Ukraine's president, and he doesn't actually know how people feel about him, or Yushchenko knows something that we all don't, and he's acting according to a plan developed by the U.S., where he has flown to twice over the last week.Presidential IntrigueIn order to understand Yushchenko's actions, I turned to 6 experts from the country: one dissident, two politicians, and three political scientists. This is what I learned:Andrey Ermolaev, Director of the Social Research Center, Sofiya:"The president wound up in a very critical situation. His political course took several hits that were observed by both politicians and voters alike. What he's trying to do at the moment is make a quick and radical change of plans that will allow him to keep his post as president — or else he'll be left bankrupt, putting away pennies in the pension fund."Oleg Tyagnibok, Head Ukrainian Nationalist and Leader of the Svoboda Party:"He doesn't have any other choice. Otherwise, an impeachment process would begin in parliament. Maybe they would let him sit out his term, but he would be deprived of all his presidential authorities, and Yushchenko would be made an English queen. He'd only be able to attend banquets and hand out medals."Mikhail Pogrebinskiy, Director of the Kiev Political and Conflict Research Center:"Timoshenko is a bone stuck in his throat. He needs to get rid of her because her presidential rating is 25 percent and his is only 5 percent. For Yushchenko, the most important thing is to stay around a second term — not an invitation to join NATO. He explains this as follows: 'I'm the only one who can save Ukraine.' He thinks God elected him.Vladimir Malinkovich, Dissident:"He's not a dictator. He's worse. He's a beekeeper playing the messiah."Aleksandr Golub, Chief Editor of Kommunist Newspaper:"His actions can be explained by his personal idiosyncrasies. This man reacts radically to any negative information about himself. If people want to stay on his team, they have to kiss up to him. I'm sure he doesn't know what his real ratings are at the moment."Vladimir Kornilov, Director of the Ukrainian Branch of the CIS Institute:"Yushchenko is obviously planning something so he'll come out the savior of the nation. It's as if he needs to do something extraordinary to boost his ratings. For example, this could be provocation against the Black Sea Fleet. The local police in Sevastopol won't execute these kinds of commands, but he could always send in the police from Lvov."
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IMF Talks In Danger Unless Ukraine Parliament Acts: Speaker
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's talks to secure credit from the International Monetary Fund could collapse unless parliament acts to pass measures to ease the effects of the global financial crisis, the chamber's chairman said on Friday.
A package proposed by the government calls for amendments to the 2008 budget, borrowing of $2 billion from unnamed international financial institutions, sovereign guarantees to firms seeking foreign credit and creating a stabilisation fund."It is very important for us to achieve results in a vote on the financial crisis," Arseniy Yatsenyuk told the chamber, which was deadlocked for the fourth day."Failure to get a result will have as a consequence the collapse of talks with international financial organisations."An International Monetary Fund mission has been holding talks for more than a week in Kiev on extending credit that Ukrainian officials say could amount to up to $14 billion.The Fund has offered no comment on the talks, but says the mission will remain in Kiev "as long as is required".Yatsenyuk said no consensus could be reached on six draft laws to tackle the crisis, including the package proposed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's government.A working group was set up to draft a document able to command a majority. Debate would resume next Tuesday.Tymoshenko, speaking later outside the chamber, said: "Getting assistance from international financial organisations in the next few days depends directly on passing this package of anti-crisis laws."Credits, she said, "will not put Ukraine in difficulty. On the contrary, they allow us to invigorate the banking system."GOVERNMENT PACKAGEThe crisis has put pressure on the hryvnia currency, which has lost 20 percent of its value in a week and was trading at record lows to the U.S. dollar. It has also placed in doubt the stability of banks to refinance debt.The deputy head of the central bank, Anatoly Shapovalov, said the hryvnia had lost ground due to "panic" and saw no need for a devaluation. The bank, he said, could force exporters to sell dollars on the interbank market but only as a last resort.Pressure grew to break deadlock over the package after a new downgrade of Ukraine's sovereign rating by agency Standard and Poor's.The agency warned that new downgrades could be forthcoming "if there are significant delays in reaching agreement with the IMF or if the lack of an internal political consensus undermines the government's ability to implement an IMF programme".Parliament has been thrown into disarray over proposals to combine debate on the crisis with measures to finance an early election called by President Viktor Yushchenko.Tymoshenko, at odds for months with the president, opposes the election and members of her bloc have milled about the chairman's rostrum to curtail debate.The president dissolved parliament this month and called a Dec. 7 election to the assembly after the collapse of a government team linked to the 2004 "Orange Revolution".He lifted the dissolution order this week and said he was putting the election back for a week to Dec. 14. It remains unclear when the poll will take place.A group of prominent Ukrainians, including scientists, politicians, soccer star Andriy Shevchenko and tennis player Andrei Medvedev, urged the president to call off the election.The group urged politicians to "forget party allegiances and take on the consequences of the crisis rather than each other".
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Ukraine Regional Officials Trade Accusations On Stalled Stadium
KIEV, Ukraine -- The top two officials in a Ukrainian province listed to hold games at the Euro 2012 football championships on Friday blamed each other for a stalled stadium construction project.
Mykola Kmit, head of Ukraine's western Lviv province, said city officials had "failed utterly" even to begin the process of building a new football stadium needed for the competition.Ukraine and Poland are co-hosts for Euro 2012. Ukraine is responsible for four game venues for the tournament, including a stadium to be built from the ground up in Lviv.The Lviv city government has yet to appoint a general contractor for the stadium, and has not even decided where the structure would be built, Kmit charged, according to an Interfax news agency report.UEFA president Michel Platini said during a recent visit to Ukraine that any planned host city stood to be sacked as a game venue, if its preparations for Euro failed to meet UEFA standards.Andry Sadovy, Lviv city mayor, said in a statement to media that the accusations were "without grounds," and claimed his government was well along in negotiations so work on the new stadium could begin."In this week alone we have held talks with three serious companies able to build the stadium quickly," Sadovy said. "We expect an agreement soon."A contract between the Lviv city government and the Austrian construction firm Alpine fell apart in early October after a dispute over construction costs.The agreed-upon cost of the venue - 125 million dollars - was insufficient given rising energy and labour prices, and the global financial meltdown, according to an Alpine statement.German Hochtief and Ukrainian Azointeks were among the possible replacement general contractors for the project, Sadovy said. He gave no precise deadline for when a stadium blueprint might be approved, or when a general contractor would be actually hired.Two Ukrainian cities, Kkarkiv and Odessa, are waiting in the wings as a possible replacement venue should Lviv ultimately fail to build a modern stadium in time for Euro 2012.A sacking of Lviv as a Euro 2012 game site would carry political repercussions in Kiev, as all the other Ukrainian host cities, including the two replacements, are located in the wealthier Russian-speaking half of the former Soviet republic.Lviv is the centre of the poorer Ukrainian-speaking half of Ukraine.Platini said in a statement that UEFA would readily shift the lion's share of the games either to Poland or Ukraine, if the other country proved unable to prepare for the football championship properly and make it a real crimeajewel.Poland and Ukraine currently are slated to hold games in eight cities, four in either country.
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EU Denounces 1930s Ukrainian Famine As Crime
KIEV, Ukraine -- The European Parliament on Thursday denounced the famine that killed millions of Ukrainians in the early 1930s as an appalling crime against humanity instigated by the regime of Soviet leader Josef Stalin.
The EU assembly voted by a large majority to condemn the famine and demanded that former Soviet nations open up their archives so that the causes can be fully investigated.However, the resolution avoided directly referring to the famine as a genocide, an issue which has divided Ukraine and Russia.Russia contests Ukrainian assertions that the famine was a genocide, because other ethnic groups, such as Russians and Kazakhs, also suffered. As the Soviet Union's legal successor, Russia is also concerned about the possibility of legal action or having to pay reparations.The death toll in the 1932-33 famine is contested. Some historians believe 3.5 million perished in what is known in Ukraine as "Holodomor," or "death by hunger," while the country's leaders say up to 10 million died.In their resolution, the EU lawmakers called the famine, "an appalling crime against the Ukrainian people, and against humanity" that was "cynically and cruelly planned by Stalin's regime in order to force through the Soviet Union's policy of collectivization of agriculture."The text makes reference to the U.N. convention on the prevention and punishment of genocide, but some conservative lawmakers complained that a more explicit reference to the famine as genocide was not included to ensure left-leading members voted in favor."Other political groups don't think the strict definition of that term should be applied to the Holodomor perhaps because of a fear of offending modern-day Russia," said British Conservative Charles Tannock. "But none of us wisр to belittle the unimaginable suffering inflicted upon Ukraine."Soviet authorities masterminded the famine to force peasants across the Soviet Union to give up their private plots and join collective farms. The measure was particularly calamitous in Ukraine, the breadbasket of the Soviet state.Historians in Ukraine and the West are divided on whether the famine was an act of genocide. Some say Ukrainians were targeted as an ethnic group. Others argue Soviet authorities set out to eradicate private landowners as a social class.Ukrainian law enforcement agencies are gathering evidence for a court case in Ukraine to try to prove the famine was genocide.
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Ukraine Liberalizes Currency Market
KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's central bank will let the official exchange rate for its currency move closer to the market's exchange rate, fulfilling a key condition to receive an International Monetary Fund loan, officials said Friday.
Serhiy Kruglyk, head of the foreign relations department at the central bank, told The Associated Press that the bank will next month begin to set the daily exchange rate based on the average rate at the foreign currency exchange recorded during the previous day of trading.Currently, the central bank exchange rates differ significantly from market rates. The official rate is set based on the market rate and other economic factors. The central bank does not publicize the exact formula.The central bank rate was 5.15 hryvnia to the dollar Friday, while the hryvnia traded much lower on currency markets, at over 6.0 hryvnia to the dollar, reaching a new all-time low since its 1996 introduction.Experts hailed the move, saying the central bank was taking a further step toward liberalizing the currency market, after it earlier abandoned the practice of keeping the national currency within a tight corridor to the dollar. However, the planned measure still did not amount to a full free float of the hryvnia, as the central bank would continue to intervene on the market."This is movement in the right direction, the direction of market reforms," said Oleksandr Klymchuk, an analyst with Concorde Capital Investment bank.The hryvnia has lost over 20 percent in the financial crisis that has hit Ukraine hard. The currency fell to its historic low Thursday, trading at 6.01 per US$1 on the foreign currency exchange. The fall was due to a shortage of foreign currency because of a 40 percent fall in exports and a run on banks that stripped the banking sector of US$3.4 billion this month.The IMF loan of up to US$14 billion is expected to help stabilize the financial sector, but the deepening political crisis threatened to block the deal.Allies of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko broke parliament's electronic voting system Friday as they protested against President Viktor Yushchenko's order to hold early elections. Parliament spokesman Andriy Zhigulin said that members of Tymoshenko's faction clogged lawmakers' voting machines with coins, paper clips and pieces of tinfoil.The heroes of the 2004 Orange Revolution, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have turned into fierce rivals ahead of the 2010 presidential election. Yushchenko ordered a new parliamentary vote in December, but Tymoshenko is fighting to avoid the vote and retain her job.
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