Kiev Leaders Locked In Trash-Talking As Economy Unravels

Kiev Leaders Locked In Trash-Talking As Economy Unravels -KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s political leaders seem oblivious to the global financial crisis and the worldwide media exposure that depicts them as unstable. There is an air of bravado among Ukraine’s elite.
President Victor Yushchenko’s decision to dismantle parliament and to call new elections – as well as his recent reaffirmation of this step – means Ukraine will have a weak interim government for at least the next three months.Whatever the intrinsic merits of the president’s determination to break the policy deadlock, the decision shows scant regard for the scale of the international financial crisis that has rapidly brought growth to a screeching halt in the richest economies, led to huge job losses and obliterated financial institutions that were once “worth” hundreds of billions of dollars.As recently as two weeks ago, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was taking an equally bold position, declaring that the country was immune to serious consequences from the international downturn as it was not fully integrated into the global economic community. And statistics on the country’s gross domestic product growth seemed to bear her out. The most recent data from Ukraine showed growth continued smartly upward through the end of September at an annual rate of 7.1 percent.Only Victor Yanukovych, emphasizes the economic threat to Ukraine. But he does so because he is in opposition, not because he understands the issues.Nor do Ukraine’s leaders seem to understand that they live in a global media environment. Accusations by the president that his rival, the premier, is a “traitor,” or her Oct. 21 blocking of the parliament, are shrugged off as “business as usual.” But to the international community, they are dire signals that the country is unstable.Despite the political “trash talking” and “theatrics” of Ukraine’s leaders, with the global financial crisis having accelerated, there will be no escaping it.The hryvnia, Ukraine’s currency, is already in a steep slide, with citizens rapidly converting significant portions of the 200 billion in hryvnias held in banks into safer dollars and euros. As a result, Ukraine’s central bank will be in a tough position to meet all the demand for hard currency that Ukraine’s banks (which need sources of liquidity) and citizens (who want the euro and dollar) will generate in the coming months.Construction is in steep decline, too. And with steel prices plummeting globally, Ukraine’s former growth engines – its steel conglomerates – could lay off workers in an effort to adjust to the tougher times.All this has already had a massive toll on the value of equities on the PFTS, Ukraine’s leading stock exchange. Inflows in foreign direct investment are also likely to be significantly affected, reducing available capital for growth, modernization and expansion.Nor does the global slowdown necessarily mean that Russia’s price for natural gas will decline with the overall global decline in commodities. Not a chance. The bad news is that it usually takes about a year for gas prices to catch up with the price of oil. So there will be no real relief to Ukraine’s natural gas price tag come new year.Given the domestic political chaos, it is small wonder that Western investors worry that, in the wake of the failure of Prominvestbank, the country’s sixth largest, there will be further financial tremors. As a result, rightly or wrongly, given the current political and policy turmoil, Ukraine is now viewed by many Western investors as the next potential Iceland, a country in the throes of bankruptcy.All this does not mean the sky is falling. But it does mean that Ukraine’s leaders would be well-advised to drop some of their false confidence and insouciance. The coming months will need rapid and resolute actions. And there are questions whether the growing political rivalries at the top will allow for the rapid implementation of sensible policy.Luckily, Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated and enterprising business elite is sensitive to the challenges and threats posed by the global slowdown. Through their powerful influence on the three major political groupings, business is likely to press politicians to responsible action.As importantly, there is a strong group of excellent professionals at the helm of Ukraine’s central bank. The government economic team of Victor Pynzenyk and Bohdan Danylyshyn is well-regarded and seen as highly competent by the international business community. As significantly, there are signs that pragmatic, growth-oriented and economically literate younger politicians, including Parliamentary Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, are chafing at the bit as politicians continue to squabble. Their discontent with the range of political options now offered to voters may be the basis for well-funded new parties that will help break the deadlocked mold of Ukrainian politics.All these are important reason for long-term optimism. In the mid-term, too, there may be good auguries for Ukraine.The International Monetary Fund and World Bank project that, as a result of the global financial crisis, Europe and the United States will have something approaching zero growth in the coming year. Emerging markets are believed to be on the path of growth of between 3 and 7 percent in 2009, with Ukraine at the lower part of the range.This should make Ukraine an attractive place to invest, if the country’s currency and financial system is not in a free fall. And that means the politicians must do their job and ensure that all sources of standby financing, including a loan package from the International Monetary Fund, is pre-negotiated and in place in case there is a need. They should also move forward with stalled privatizations. Parliament will need to act quickly to approve any package that is negotiated as well as other needed emergency measures.If Ukraine’s leaders understand that they personally will be blamed by the public for any serious economic setbacks, there are strong prospects Ukraine can ride out the current global financial crisis. That is certainly what President Yushchenko,hoping for a crimeajewel moment, with support for re-election in early 2010 at single digits, must hope for. Otherwise, he would be far better served to allow Yulia Tymoshenko to continue serving as premier and to bear the brunt of public anger at steep economic decline.Of course, it would be best if Ukraine’s leaders agreed to a short-term compromise and created a government of national unity that could cope with the economic crisis. But given the worry of Yushchenko and the business elite about Tymoshenko’s populist proclivities, and their lack of confidence in her stewardship of the economy, such an outcome appears unlikely.Still, the odds are that, even without a global political compromise, Ukraine’s leaders will find a way of cobbling together and implementing policies to prevent an economic meltdown. That, alas, has been the standard operating procedure of Ukraine’s elite for most of the 18 years of independence.