MINSK, Belarus -- Belarusian police have located three female activists from the Ukrainian women's rights group, FEMEN, who say they were abducted and terrorized by security forces after they staged one of their signature topless protests against the regime of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk on Monday.
Belarusian service reports that the women, who were found in the Yelsk district of the country's southeastern Gomel oblast, were taken to a local hospital for medical examinations.
They are now said to be at a local police station.
A correspondent for the Belarusian state news agency BelaPan reported that doctors observed bruises on the women's hands and other parts of their body.
The women told journalists at the scene that on the evening of their protest, December 19, they were at a Minsk bus station when six men abducted them and brought them to a forest far from the capital.
They repeated details about their ordeal that FEMEN's leader, Anna Hutsol, had told RFE/RL earlier in the day from Kiev.
"They are alive but not in good health. They are very scared. They were detained by the KGB yesterday. They drove them around in a car all night, then brought them to the woods, poured oil on them, threatened to set them on fire, threatened them with a knife, cut their hair with a knife, videotaped everything, and then left them in the woods."
Hustol identified the three women as Alexandra Nemchinova, Oksana Shachko, and Inna Shevchenko and said the KGB seized their documents.
Aleksei Emelyanenko, a spokesperson the Ukrainian Embassy in Minsk, told RFE/RL that the women's identities could not immediately be confirmed.
"We hope to be able to return them to Ukraine soon and from our side, we will continue to follow their situation," he said.
Earlier in the day, Kiev sent its embassy consul in Minsk to the region to investigate the story.
He later met with the activists.
RFE/RL's Belarusian service spoke to people in Byaki, the village where the women were found.
They said the women told them that after being terrorized in the woods, their captors had brought them to the nearby border with Ukraine and ordered them to cross it.
The women instead made their way to the village, where a local resident took them in.
A man who gave his name as Yuri told RFE/RL that he had lent the activists his mobile phone so they could reach Hutsol.
The Belarusian authorities have not publicly commented on the women's allegations.
But earlier today, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleksandr Dikusarov told RFE/RL that officials in Minsk said no one had detained the activists and the women had left the city voluntarily.
FEMEN, which claims to have hundreds of members and thousands of supporters, formed in 2008 to protest discrimination against women in what the group describes as Ukraine's patriarchal post-Soviet society.
Its members' signature strategy of protesting topless has earned the group admiration and ridicule, and no shortage of headlines.
The group's agenda has expanded from protesting domestic inequalities to championing international causes.
In June, FEMEN activists wore hijabs, the traditional Muslim headscarf, but nothing on top, at a protest in front of Kiev's Saudi Arabian Embassy over Riyadh's ban on women drivers.
They've also stopped traffic in Zurich and caused a stir at the Vatican.
Earlier this month, FEMEN attempted to stage a protest in Moscow before Russia's parliamentary elections, but were quickly overpowered by security guards.
On Monday, the one-year anniversary of Belarus's disputed presidential election, the activists gathered in front of the KGB headquarters in Minsk to express solidarity with the demonstrators, politicians, and journalists who were detained in the ensuing protests and government crackdown.
Bare-chested and wearing fake Lukashenka-style moustaches, the women held placards that read, "Freedom to Political Prisoners" and "Long Live Belarus," a mantra of the protest movement.
One FEMEN member painted a red star on her stomach and partially shaved her head in imitation of Lukashenka's receding hairline.
Several journalists were arrested while attempting to cover the group's demonstration.
While FEMEN's activities are largely tolerated in Ukraine, all signs of dissent are quickly quashed under the Lukashenka regime.
To intimidate activists and protesters, security forces have used tactics similar to what FEMEN says happened to its three members.
Ukrainian human rights activist Yevhen Zakharov told RFE/RL that if the group's claims are confirmed, those responsible must be held accountable.
"If this information is confirmed and it is in fact torture [used against FEMEN activists in Belarus], then Ukraine should demand the punishment of the law-enforcement officers responsible for it. If that is not done, then measures of diplomatic pressure should be taken against Belarus. In my view, this cannot be left without a response," he said.
Hutsol, meanwhile, pledged to take matters into her own hands if necessary.
"We'll do everything to have the Belarusian ambassador to Ukraine deported from here," she said from Kiev. "If he doesn't leave tomorrow, we'll take him to the woods ourselves and shave his head."
Showing posts with label belarus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label belarus. Show all posts
Wednesday, 21 December 2011
Topless Protest Group Claims Belarus Police Abuse
MINSK, Belarus -- A Ukrainian organization of topless women activists says three of its members were abducted by security officers during a protest against Belarus authoritarian president, beaten, humiliated and left naked in a forest.
The group, called FEMEN, is widely known in Ukraine and neighboring countries for its demonstrations in which women bare their breasts to draw attention to an array of causes.
A statement on FEMEN's website Tuesday says the three were seized by agents of the Belarusian KGB at Minsk's train station on Monday evening, several hours after they held a protest against President Alexander Lukashenko.
FEMEN said they were blindfolded and driven in a bus to the Gomel region, about 200 kilometers (120 miles) southeast of the capital.
There, they were taken to a forest, beaten and forced to undress, doused with oil and threatened with being set on fire.
Their captors hacked off their hair with knives and turned them loose in the woods, the group said.
The women were able to walk from the forest to a nearby village, the statement said.
"They were able to telephone and told me they were in awful condition, barely alive," the group's leader Anna Gutsol told The Associated Press.
A spokesman for the KGB, Alexander Antanovich, declined to comment on the allegation.
The three had bared their breasts on the steps of the KGB headquarters in Minsk on Monday in a demonstration against Lukashenko on the first anniversary of his re-election.
Agents quickly broke up that demonstration and arrested several journalists and FEMEN's Australian videographer Kitti Green, but the three activists were able to flee, FEMEN said.
It said Green was deported to Lithuania.
Lukashenko has repressed opposition and independent media since becoming leader of the former Soviet republic in 1994.
In December 2010 elections, he was declared winner of a new term, but tens of thousands of protesters assembled to denounce alleged vote fraud.
Police harshly broke up that demonstration and arrested around 700 people, some of whom remain in jail including two of the candidates who opposed Lukashenko.
The group, called FEMEN, is widely known in Ukraine and neighboring countries for its demonstrations in which women bare their breasts to draw attention to an array of causes.
A statement on FEMEN's website Tuesday says the three were seized by agents of the Belarusian KGB at Minsk's train station on Monday evening, several hours after they held a protest against President Alexander Lukashenko.
FEMEN said they were blindfolded and driven in a bus to the Gomel region, about 200 kilometers (120 miles) southeast of the capital.
There, they were taken to a forest, beaten and forced to undress, doused with oil and threatened with being set on fire.
Their captors hacked off their hair with knives and turned them loose in the woods, the group said.
The women were able to walk from the forest to a nearby village, the statement said.
"They were able to telephone and told me they were in awful condition, barely alive," the group's leader Anna Gutsol told The Associated Press.
A spokesman for the KGB, Alexander Antanovich, declined to comment on the allegation.
The three had bared their breasts on the steps of the KGB headquarters in Minsk on Monday in a demonstration against Lukashenko on the first anniversary of his re-election.
Agents quickly broke up that demonstration and arrested several journalists and FEMEN's Australian videographer Kitti Green, but the three activists were able to flee, FEMEN said.
It said Green was deported to Lithuania.
Lukashenko has repressed opposition and independent media since becoming leader of the former Soviet republic in 1994.
In December 2010 elections, he was declared winner of a new term, but tens of thousands of protesters assembled to denounce alleged vote fraud.
Police harshly broke up that demonstration and arrested around 700 people, some of whom remain in jail including two of the candidates who opposed Lukashenko.
Sunday, 27 November 2011
Russia saves strongman Lukashenko from complete isolation
Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has recently supported the development of integration within the scope of the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Community. Russia responded with a positive reaction immediately. Experts started saying that the relations between the administration of Russia and Belarus would improve.
The cooldown period in the relations between Russia and Belarus started when Lukashenko refused to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Afterwards, the two countries had gas, milk and other scandals. As a result, Russia decided not to support Lukashenko (at least publicly) at the presidential election in Belarus in 2010.
Belarus then suffered from the currency crisis. Russia's former Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin released several negative remarks about the economic model of Belarus. Nevertheless, the relations between the two countries have never come to a standstill despite complications.
The process of integration became stronger after the establishment of the Customs Union and the creation of the Joint Economic Space. The Eurasian Economic Community decided to give Belarus a loan of $3.5 billion. Russia approved the initiative, but it still seems that top officials are fighting for pieces of cheap Belarusian public property.
However, the relations between Russia and Belarus have been improving recently. Low duties on Europe-made cars were raised to the Russian level on July 1, as it was promised before. Belarus is currently in talks with Russia's financial organization about opportunities for new loans on the security of the shares of Belarusian enterprises.
In October, the two countries signed the agreement about the construction of the nuclear power plant in the Grodnensky region. In November, Russia and Belarus are to sign a number of other agreements in the field of oil and gas shipments and other moot questions in the energy industry. At any rate, Lukashenko stated that all of those questions had been settled.
Thus, it may seem that the "big fight" between Russia and Belarus is drawing to its end. In the meantime, the situation in Belarus remains quite intense. On October 20, the official and the market value of the Belarusian currency were equalized, which marked the drop of 189 percent since the beginning of the year. The collapse of the national currency led to the inflation rate of over 80 percent, whereas salaries remained virtually unchanged.
As for the above-mentioned integration, the opportunity for Belarus to integrate with Russia and Kazakhstan may lead to positive and negative changes for the troubled nation. One of the conditions for participation in the Joint Economic Space includes the abolishment of liabilities for businesses to sell 30 percent of currency income to the state. Belarus is not ready to take up this option because it may extend the currency crisis and therefore aggravate the economic condition in the country even further.
Therefore, the Belarusian administration tries to correct the terms of their stay in the EEC. The Customs Union committee received amendments to the currency regulation treaty within the scope of the EEC. Minks asked to preserve the 30-percent mandatory sale of currency income to residents before January 1, 2017.
The financial authorities of Belarus hope to stabilize the rate of the national currency in five years.
It goes without saying that this year's events in Belarus resulted in the growth of opposition sentiments in the country. The "revolution in social networks" conquered young people's minds. Many silent actions of protests were held in many cities of Belarus, but the actions eventually came to nothing owing to weak organization and resistance of the authorities.
One may conclude that the Belarusian opposition has not used the chance to make the name for itself а again. The Belarusian president understands that: he initiates more and more restrictions to practically all actions that are not coordinated with the authorities. In the beginning of October, the Belarusian deputies passed the bill, which toughened the requirements to organizers of mass events. The bill equated flashmobs of the Belarusian opposition to pickets.
The parliament of the country received amendments to the law "About State Security Bodies" (State Security Committee, or KGB, and its local departments). The new amendments specified the possibilities for the president of the republic to control special services. The document particularly says that the president is entitled to decide when KGB officers can resort to arms and military equipment.
It is worth mentioning that many of those, who were convicted on the cases connected with the events of December 19, 2010, are still jailed.
The terms of the new stage of integration with Russia and Kazakhstan and the economic consequences that it will lead to the residents of Belarus will not show any influence on the structure of political and socio-economic relations in the country. The society will find itself under the pressure of the authorities.
If the relations between Russia and Belarus eventually improve, it will mean that Strongman Lukashenko will avoid the complete isolation, at least in the east.
Saturday, 11 June 2011
Russia halves Belarus power supply over unpaid bill
A source at Russia's energy export monopoly said supplies - which account for 10% of the country's needs - might stop completely on 19 June.
Confirming the cut, Belarus said it owed $54m (£33m).
Gripped by an economic crisis, it is seeking a Russian-led $1.2bn bail-out which Moscow is tying to reform.
It has also asked the IMF for an emergency loan of up to $8bn.
The country, with its Soviet-era command economy, is grappling with its most severe balance of payments crisis since the collapse of the USSR.
It has announced it is raising its main interest rate from 14% to 16%, and is freezing prices on a number of staple foods until 1 July, amid panic-buying of goods by its citizens as prices soar.
Moscow is traditionally the country's main ally but has been linking aid to a privatisation drive.
The Russian power network operator confirmed that supplies had been more than halved overnight to 200 megawatts from 460 megawatts.
A source at Inter RAO IUES.MM, the export monopoly, told Reuters news agency: "If Belarus doesn't pay, supplies will be shut off entirely on June 19."
The government in Minsk said it hoped to resolve the matter "as quickly as possible".
"However, it is important to note that the country has certain problems with its currency," an energy ministry spokeswoman said.
Lyudmila Zenkovich insisted consumers would not be hurt by the Russian move.
Confirming the cut, Belarus said it owed $54m (£33m).
Gripped by an economic crisis, it is seeking a Russian-led $1.2bn bail-out which Moscow is tying to reform.
It has also asked the IMF for an emergency loan of up to $8bn.
The country, with its Soviet-era command economy, is grappling with its most severe balance of payments crisis since the collapse of the USSR.
It has announced it is raising its main interest rate from 14% to 16%, and is freezing prices on a number of staple foods until 1 July, amid panic-buying of goods by its citizens as prices soar.
Moscow is traditionally the country's main ally but has been linking aid to a privatisation drive.
The Russian power network operator confirmed that supplies had been more than halved overnight to 200 megawatts from 460 megawatts.
A source at Inter RAO IUES.MM, the export monopoly, told Reuters news agency: "If Belarus doesn't pay, supplies will be shut off entirely on June 19."
The government in Minsk said it hoped to resolve the matter "as quickly as possible".
"However, it is important to note that the country has certain problems with its currency," an energy ministry spokeswoman said.
Lyudmila Zenkovich insisted consumers would not be hurt by the Russian move.
Sunday, 5 September 2010
Belarus accuses Moscow of bomb attack
An attack on Russia’s embassy in Minsk could have been the work of Russian agents, according to Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko.
Police are investigating claims that the Russians firebombed their own embassy as part of an on-going campaign against Lukashenko in the Russian media.
Vladimir Zhakhrin, deputy director of the research institute for CIS, believes this could be an attempt of the present Belarusian leader to gain more votes in the coming elections.
Monday, 12 July 2010
Monday, 21 June 2010
Belarus 'to pay for Russian gas debt' within two weeks
Belarus has said it will settle its gas debts to Russia within two weeks, after its eastern neighbour started cutting supplies in a dispute over payments.
Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimir Syamashka said Belarus would borrow the nearly $200m (£135m) demanded by the state-controlled gas monopoly, Gazprom.
But he added that Russia owed Belarus $217m (£146m) in fees for transiting gas via its territory to Europe.
Earlier, Russia's president ordered Gazprom to reduce supplies by 15%.
Dmitry Medvedev said this would rise "day-by-day" to 85% if Belarus did not start paying off its debts, accrued when it failed to pay increased prices.
Belarus believes the higher price it is being charged contradicts a customs union deal agreed between the two countries.
The row threatens to disrupt onward deliveries to Europe as about a fifth of its supplies of Russian gas is pumped through Belarus.
In 2009, a similar dispute between Russia and Ukraine saw Gazprom shut off supplies in the middle of winter, affecting millions of people
Announcing that it had started to cut supplies on Monday, Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller told Mr Medvedev that Belarus had proposed to pay the debt "with machinery, equipment and various other productsMr Medvedev said foreign payments could only be accepted in foreign currencies: "Gazprom cannot accept debt repayments in anything, be it pies, butter, cheese or other means of payment."
Later, Mr Syamashka told journalists that Belarus would pay within two weeks.
"We do not hide that we have problems with hard currency. Belarus has to resort to borrowing in order to make a payment on time," he said. "We will find a way - borrow money - but pay."
Mr Syamashka said a protocol would be signed at talks in Moscow on Monday "about which we will probably not agree in full, but it is important that Russia recognised the debt for the transit of Russian gas via Belarus is worth $217m".
"They will pay for transit. We will pay for gas," he added.
Belarus had previously insisted that Russia provide it with cheap oil and gas as part of a customs union deal between the two countries that is due to come into force next month.
Russia increased the price of gas supplied to Belarus from $150 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas last year, to $169.20 in the first quarter of 2010 and $184.80 in the second.
But Belarus has continued to pay at $150. Gazprom said at that rate it could owe $500m or $600m by the end of the year.
Belarus is an important part of the pipeline network which transports Russian gas supplies to Europe.
It remains heavily dependent on Russia to meet its own energy needs, and a considerable proportion of Russian oil and gas exports to Europe pass through it.
Russia and Belarus are supposed to be close allies, but have had several rows in recent years, particularly over energy supplies, correspondents say.
Russia has not been afraid to cut supplies to countries it accuses of falling behind in their payments.
In January 2006 and again in 2009, Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine, causing knock-on effects all over Europe.
In January this year, a row nearly resulted in Russian oil deliveries to Belarus being halted.
Russia's critics have accused it of using its energy supplies as a political weapon.
Sunday, 18 April 2010
Russia,Belarus, Ukraine Restrict Airspace Because Of Ash
MINSK/KIEV, Belarus/Ukraine -- Belarus restricted its airspace on Saturday and airports in Ukraine including the capital Kiev closed to flights because of the huge volcanic ash cloud drifting over Europe.
Belarus closed its airspace overnight to flights at altitudes between 6,000 and 11,000 metres, but some routes east and south were open, the head of the aviation security department, Vladimir Nagulevich, told Reuters.
Ukraine's Aerosvit airline said the main Kiev airport would remain closed until at least 1800 GMT and possibly into Sunday.
Ukraine's Lvov, Odessa, Donetsk, Simferopol and Dnepropetrovsk airports were also closed to flights for an unspecified period.
Europe's air travel chaos deepened on Saturday as the huge cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland spread further across the continent, halting nearly three in four flights and stranding passengers worldwide.
Authorities in Belarus said they were offering to waive visa requirements for European Union citizens stranded in Russia and willing to return to the EU by road or rail through Belarus.
Belarus closed its airspace overnight to flights at altitudes between 6,000 and 11,000 metres, but some routes east and south were open, the head of the aviation security department, Vladimir Nagulevich, told Reuters.
Ukraine's Aerosvit airline said the main Kiev airport would remain closed until at least 1800 GMT and possibly into Sunday.
Ukraine's Lvov, Odessa, Donetsk, Simferopol and Dnepropetrovsk airports were also closed to flights for an unspecified period.
Europe's air travel chaos deepened on Saturday as the huge cloud of volcanic ash from Iceland spread further across the continent, halting nearly three in four flights and stranding passengers worldwide.
Authorities in Belarus said they were offering to waive visa requirements for European Union citizens stranded in Russia and willing to return to the EU by road or rail through Belarus.
Sunday, 4 April 2010
President Yanukovych Rules Out Merger Of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine
KIEV, Ukraine -- President Viktor Yanukovych has flatly rejected the proposal that Belarus, Russia and Ukraine establish a single state with Kiev as its capital city.
“Is there any right to discuss the matter? For me, the president, there isn't any,” Mr. Yanukovych’s press office quoted him as saying on April 1. Closer integration with the European Union is Ukraine’s strategic goal, the president said.
Earlier this month, a leading Russian lawmaker submitted a plan to his Ukrainian counterparts for the three countries to unite by 2020.
Yevgeny Fedorov, a deputy head of the ruling United Russia party and of the economic policy and business committee in Russia's lower parliamentary house, said that the plan would bring prosperity to all three states.
He submitted the proposal to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s parliament).
“There is one undeniable fact: Ukraine is an independent sovereign state. And this is put down in the fundamental law of our country,” Mr. Yanukovych said. “There is another undeniable fact: Ukraine is on the path of active integration into the European Union. And this strategic direction has also been underlined in statements made by me as the president.”
“I would like everyone to remember this,” he added.
Mr. Federov earlier said that many Ukrainian and Russian politicians had supported his plan, which would be elaborated in four or five months.
He said that “the underlying motives for this project are economic.”
“Together we will be richer," the lawmaker said. "This union could allow us to surpass the living standards of the richest European countries."
Uniting the countries would boost per-capita purchasing power, expand the middle class and raise life expectancy to 75 years, said a copy of the plan titled "From Historical Unity of the People to a United State".
Mr. Fedorov said that negotiations could take up to five years.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Borys Kolesnykov, a leading member of the new government of President Viktor Yanukovych, earlier expressed skepticism over the idea.
“Is there any right to discuss the matter? For me, the president, there isn't any,” Mr. Yanukovych’s press office quoted him as saying on April 1. Closer integration with the European Union is Ukraine’s strategic goal, the president said.
Earlier this month, a leading Russian lawmaker submitted a plan to his Ukrainian counterparts for the three countries to unite by 2020.
Yevgeny Fedorov, a deputy head of the ruling United Russia party and of the economic policy and business committee in Russia's lower parliamentary house, said that the plan would bring prosperity to all three states.
He submitted the proposal to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s parliament).
“There is one undeniable fact: Ukraine is an independent sovereign state. And this is put down in the fundamental law of our country,” Mr. Yanukovych said. “There is another undeniable fact: Ukraine is on the path of active integration into the European Union. And this strategic direction has also been underlined in statements made by me as the president.”
“I would like everyone to remember this,” he added.
Mr. Federov earlier said that many Ukrainian and Russian politicians had supported his plan, which would be elaborated in four or five months.
He said that “the underlying motives for this project are economic.”
“Together we will be richer," the lawmaker said. "This union could allow us to surpass the living standards of the richest European countries."
Uniting the countries would boost per-capita purchasing power, expand the middle class and raise life expectancy to 75 years, said a copy of the plan titled "From Historical Unity of the People to a United State".
Mr. Fedorov said that negotiations could take up to five years.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Borys Kolesnykov, a leading member of the new government of President Viktor Yanukovych, earlier expressed skepticism over the idea.
Saturday, 26 December 2009
Strange love
Russia and Belarus' top political brass were locked in negotiations for most of Thursday last week at what was supposed to be a routine one-hour session of the Belarus-Russia Union State Supreme Council. The eight-hour-plus meeting in the Kremlin was supposed to expand cooperation on energy, trade and military matters, but very little headway appeared to have been made. So why have Russia-Belarus relations become so tense? And are there any prospects for a better relationship, let alone the integration of these countries in a nebulous Union State?
The decisions made on gas cooperation "at least will not create problems for our Belarussian partners," President Dmitry Medvedev said after the marathon session. But not only do these comments give away little of what went on behind closed doors, they do not come close to summing up Moscow's aggressive policy toward its former vassal state. Russia-Belarus relations have this year been marked by a raft of politicised trade spats over gas, dairy products, meat and even tractors.
President Alexander Lukashenko hoped that the export duty on Russian oil and gas to Belarus would be abolished, allowing Belarus to buy at Russian domestic prices. But the best he got was a promise from Pavel Borodin, the secretary of the Russia-Belarus Union, that prices for Russian oil and gas to Belarus in 2010 "could" be frozen at the 2009 level.
On Nov. 23, Medvedev promised Lukashenko that Belarus would pay 30 to 40 percent less than European Union states for Russian gas, but more recently Vladimir Putin said that discounted prices depend on Belarus' integration into a union state with Russia.
Christopher Langton, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia was using its natural resources as a tool to force Belarus into integration.
Moscow's aim is to "strengthen its alliances on the border with Europe ... Belarus, Moldova, Transdnestr and Ukraine [are] places where [Russia] can apply pressure, and the energy tool is one example of that," said Langton.
Medvedev and Lukashenko expressed hope that the union would become a platform for strengthening ties, but the prospect for such integration is small.
On Dec. 8, the union marked its 10th anniversary, but in that time it has achieved little. "These 10 years have passed very fast, much has been done and much not done yet," Medvedev said.
Both countries have interests in the union state, but they do not converge. Russia sees it as a way to reassert its control over Belarus, but Lukashenko sees as a way of "getting cheap energy resources, free access to Russia's markets, occasional subsidies, and credits from the Russian government," said Yaroslav Romanchuk, the head of the Minsk-based Mises Centre. "That is why ... they were forced to negotiate and imitate friendship and cooperation, while in reality Russian-Belarussian trade and political relations are quite sour."
After the Kremlin meeting, Lukashenko called the union state a "real, advanced formation for integration in the post-Soviet space [with] clear prospects."
But in reality, "Lukashenko doesn't want to transfer even a tiny bit of his power to this kind of sub-national body," said Romanchuk.
Lukashenko's current policy is strongly Russophobic, and this will only intensify as the presidential elections campaign kicks off toward the end of 2010. "Next year Lukashenko will definitely put more blame on Putin and on Gazprom for the deterioration of the economic situation in Belarus. ... I don't know of any single country in the world where anti-Russian propaganda is so strong," said Romanchuk.
Amid this year's disputes, trade between the two countries has dropped by 40 percent and contributed to Belarus' current trade deficit with Russia of $8 billion, RFE reported on Dec. 10.
Lukashenko has called Russian trade sanctions as a form of blackmail. In October, Lukashenko accused Putin of personally giving the order to turn off the taps to Belarus in the January 2004 gas dispute.
During last week's Q&A session, Putin was asked why he had not responded to Lukashenko's criticism, Putin joked: "Maybe it's love." Yet even if the will is there to fix the relationship, at the moment the two countries are more likely to be heading for an acrimonious separation than a second honeymoon.
The decisions made on gas cooperation "at least will not create problems for our Belarussian partners," President Dmitry Medvedev said after the marathon session. But not only do these comments give away little of what went on behind closed doors, they do not come close to summing up Moscow's aggressive policy toward its former vassal state. Russia-Belarus relations have this year been marked by a raft of politicised trade spats over gas, dairy products, meat and even tractors.
President Alexander Lukashenko hoped that the export duty on Russian oil and gas to Belarus would be abolished, allowing Belarus to buy at Russian domestic prices. But the best he got was a promise from Pavel Borodin, the secretary of the Russia-Belarus Union, that prices for Russian oil and gas to Belarus in 2010 "could" be frozen at the 2009 level.
On Nov. 23, Medvedev promised Lukashenko that Belarus would pay 30 to 40 percent less than European Union states for Russian gas, but more recently Vladimir Putin said that discounted prices depend on Belarus' integration into a union state with Russia.
Christopher Langton, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia was using its natural resources as a tool to force Belarus into integration.
Moscow's aim is to "strengthen its alliances on the border with Europe ... Belarus, Moldova, Transdnestr and Ukraine [are] places where [Russia] can apply pressure, and the energy tool is one example of that," said Langton.
Medvedev and Lukashenko expressed hope that the union would become a platform for strengthening ties, but the prospect for such integration is small.
On Dec. 8, the union marked its 10th anniversary, but in that time it has achieved little. "These 10 years have passed very fast, much has been done and much not done yet," Medvedev said.
Both countries have interests in the union state, but they do not converge. Russia sees it as a way to reassert its control over Belarus, but Lukashenko sees as a way of "getting cheap energy resources, free access to Russia's markets, occasional subsidies, and credits from the Russian government," said Yaroslav Romanchuk, the head of the Minsk-based Mises Centre. "That is why ... they were forced to negotiate and imitate friendship and cooperation, while in reality Russian-Belarussian trade and political relations are quite sour."
After the Kremlin meeting, Lukashenko called the union state a "real, advanced formation for integration in the post-Soviet space [with] clear prospects."
But in reality, "Lukashenko doesn't want to transfer even a tiny bit of his power to this kind of sub-national body," said Romanchuk.
Lukashenko's current policy is strongly Russophobic, and this will only intensify as the presidential elections campaign kicks off toward the end of 2010. "Next year Lukashenko will definitely put more blame on Putin and on Gazprom for the deterioration of the economic situation in Belarus. ... I don't know of any single country in the world where anti-Russian propaganda is so strong," said Romanchuk.
Amid this year's disputes, trade between the two countries has dropped by 40 percent and contributed to Belarus' current trade deficit with Russia of $8 billion, RFE reported on Dec. 10.
Lukashenko has called Russian trade sanctions as a form of blackmail. In October, Lukashenko accused Putin of personally giving the order to turn off the taps to Belarus in the January 2004 gas dispute.
During last week's Q&A session, Putin was asked why he had not responded to Lukashenko's criticism, Putin joked: "Maybe it's love." Yet even if the will is there to fix the relationship, at the moment the two countries are more likely to be heading for an acrimonious separation than a second honeymoon.
Wednesday, 11 November 2009
Belarus, Ukraine Step Up Cooperation, With Moscow In Mind
KIEV, Ukraine -- Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko is strengthening ties with Kiev to get more concessions from Moscow, the media and analysts think. The presidents of Belarus and Ukraine met in Kiev last week to settle two major issues that have hindered bilateral relations. Minsk agreed to ratify the agreement of the border. Ukraine will reduce tariffs on electricity for Belarus to pay its debt.
Analysts note that Minsk and Kiev have made mutual concessions in these issues. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko also promised to support Minsk’s efforts to return to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).The assembly cancelled Belarus's "special guest status" in 1997 over alleged election fraud at the presidential election. In June 2009, PACE passed a resolution banning Belarus’s participation as “a special guest” at the assembly’s meetings until the country abolishes death penalty.Lukashenko and Yushchenko agreed to cooperate in the framework of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program. Minsk and Kiev will submit their joint proposals concerning the program to the EU.At the same time, the Russian media stressed the importance of the “hidden agenda” of the meeting between Ukrainian and Belarusian leaders. They are interested in strengthening relations first of all to oppose Moscow, observers believe.Yushchenko described relations with Minsk as those “of strategic partners,” Kommersant daily said. Lukashenko thanked his Ukrainian counterpart for “colossal support” for Belarusian efforts to build relations with other states, first of all, Western states and the US.However, only two years ago nobody “could have predicted that Lukashenko would visit Kiev,” Expert magazine said, adding that the Belarusian leader had sharply criticized the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine.The goal of Lukashenko’s visit to Ukraine is to create another “tactical advantage in his bargaining with Moscow,” believes commentator Olga Mefodyeva. As always, this bargaining contains Russia’s demands and Belarusian financial interests, she said.Lukashenko’s rhetoric toward Kiev and his Ukrainian counterpart “was markedly positive,” Mefodyeva wrote at Politcom.ru website. Belarusian leader did not conceal long-term intentions of cooperation with Kiev, she noted.However, despite the fact that the visit to Kiev may bring Minsk certain financial dividends, including cheap Ukrainian electricity, “the friendship” will be short-term because Yushchenko’s prospects to extend his presidential power are minimal, Mefodyeva said. To continue “brotherly relations,” Lukashenko will have to come to an agreement with a new Ukraine’s president, the analyst added.Lukashenko chose Kiev for several reasons, Mefodyeva believes. When Ukraine gets a new president, the agreements with Yushchenko may be reconsidered. At the same time, Yushchenko remains “an emotional irritant” for the Russian leadership, so it was easy for the Belarusian leader to deliver his message in Kiev, she added.After making unsuccessful overtures to Europe and the US, Belarus finds in Ukraine “the last object that could be used when bargaining with Russia,” Mefodyeva stressed.“Lukashenko went to Yushchenko to strengthen friendship against Russia,” Moskovsky Komsomolets daily said. Belarus and Ukraine are stepping up relations when Moscow’s attitudes toward Belarusian leader have chilled, the paper noted. “Before, Russia defended Lukashenko on the world arena, and now Yushchenko has assumed the role of the defender,” the daily said.Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov agrees that Lukashenko has used his visit to Ukraine to get concessions in his economic talks with Russia. For his part, Yushchenko is interested in friendship with Lukashenko “to oppose Russia,” the analysts told Rosbalt news agency.The visit of the Belarusian leader to Kiev coincided with the establishment of a working group by the Belarusian parliament to consider a question about the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Observers stress that this was done at the suggestion of the Belarusian leader.Minsk is not in a hurry to recognize the republics, the media say. Kommersant daily quoted the head of the Belarusian parliament’s commission on foreign affairs Sergey Maschekvich as saying that there is no task to consider the issue by the end of 2009. This statement coincides with the vector of foreign policy that Lukashenko had indicated in Kiev, the paper added.The consideration by the Belarusian parliament of the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may be also connected with the European Union’s sanctions against top Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko, Moskovsky Komsomolets daily said. “Now Minsk is hinting to Brussels that in case of the wrong decision it will go to Moscow again,” the paper noted. Minsk has “an additional interest” in getting a loan from the European Union, the daily added.“The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states is one of the main topics in Russian-Belarusian relations,” Polit.ru website said. “In March, Lukashenko personally promised to Medvedev that the Belarusian parliament would take a decision,” it added. “However, in April the issue was not included in the agenda of the newly elected parliament,” the website noted.“The European Union invited Minsk to the Eastern Partnership, and Lukashenko is trying to maneuver between Moscow and the West,” Polit.ru said. In addition, Lukashenko has criticized Moscow for failing to grant a $500 million credit to Minsk.Observers considered the issue of the recognition of the two Caucasus republics by Belarus “hopeless” after Minsk in July ordered its citizens to observe Georgian laws while entering Abkazia and South Ossetia, the website said.In October, Lukashenko blamed Moscow for the fact that Minsk had not recognized the two republics. He stressed that the Russian media had begun criticizing the Belarusian leadership “at the moment when it was ready to take a decision on the recognition,” Polit.ru said.But following these statements Lukashenko made a step toward Russia, signing the agreement of the rapid reaction force of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Observers believe that Minsk has begun fulfilling its promises facing serious economic difficulties, the website said.To confirm this, the Russian media quoted Lukashenko as saying in Kiev that problems in cooperation of Russia and Belarus show “the depth of bilateral relations.” Some disagreements “do not evidence the crisis in the Union State of Russia and Belarus,” Lukashenko said.The Belarusian leader also stressed that cooperation between Moscow and Minsk has become “more pragmatic,” adding that it is “a natural pace of history and integration.”
Analysts note that Minsk and Kiev have made mutual concessions in these issues. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko also promised to support Minsk’s efforts to return to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).The assembly cancelled Belarus's "special guest status" in 1997 over alleged election fraud at the presidential election. In June 2009, PACE passed a resolution banning Belarus’s participation as “a special guest” at the assembly’s meetings until the country abolishes death penalty.Lukashenko and Yushchenko agreed to cooperate in the framework of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program. Minsk and Kiev will submit their joint proposals concerning the program to the EU.At the same time, the Russian media stressed the importance of the “hidden agenda” of the meeting between Ukrainian and Belarusian leaders. They are interested in strengthening relations first of all to oppose Moscow, observers believe.Yushchenko described relations with Minsk as those “of strategic partners,” Kommersant daily said. Lukashenko thanked his Ukrainian counterpart for “colossal support” for Belarusian efforts to build relations with other states, first of all, Western states and the US.However, only two years ago nobody “could have predicted that Lukashenko would visit Kiev,” Expert magazine said, adding that the Belarusian leader had sharply criticized the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine.The goal of Lukashenko’s visit to Ukraine is to create another “tactical advantage in his bargaining with Moscow,” believes commentator Olga Mefodyeva. As always, this bargaining contains Russia’s demands and Belarusian financial interests, she said.Lukashenko’s rhetoric toward Kiev and his Ukrainian counterpart “was markedly positive,” Mefodyeva wrote at Politcom.ru website. Belarusian leader did not conceal long-term intentions of cooperation with Kiev, she noted.However, despite the fact that the visit to Kiev may bring Minsk certain financial dividends, including cheap Ukrainian electricity, “the friendship” will be short-term because Yushchenko’s prospects to extend his presidential power are minimal, Mefodyeva said. To continue “brotherly relations,” Lukashenko will have to come to an agreement with a new Ukraine’s president, the analyst added.Lukashenko chose Kiev for several reasons, Mefodyeva believes. When Ukraine gets a new president, the agreements with Yushchenko may be reconsidered. At the same time, Yushchenko remains “an emotional irritant” for the Russian leadership, so it was easy for the Belarusian leader to deliver his message in Kiev, she added.After making unsuccessful overtures to Europe and the US, Belarus finds in Ukraine “the last object that could be used when bargaining with Russia,” Mefodyeva stressed.“Lukashenko went to Yushchenko to strengthen friendship against Russia,” Moskovsky Komsomolets daily said. Belarus and Ukraine are stepping up relations when Moscow’s attitudes toward Belarusian leader have chilled, the paper noted. “Before, Russia defended Lukashenko on the world arena, and now Yushchenko has assumed the role of the defender,” the daily said.Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov agrees that Lukashenko has used his visit to Ukraine to get concessions in his economic talks with Russia. For his part, Yushchenko is interested in friendship with Lukashenko “to oppose Russia,” the analysts told Rosbalt news agency.The visit of the Belarusian leader to Kiev coincided with the establishment of a working group by the Belarusian parliament to consider a question about the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Observers stress that this was done at the suggestion of the Belarusian leader.Minsk is not in a hurry to recognize the republics, the media say. Kommersant daily quoted the head of the Belarusian parliament’s commission on foreign affairs Sergey Maschekvich as saying that there is no task to consider the issue by the end of 2009. This statement coincides with the vector of foreign policy that Lukashenko had indicated in Kiev, the paper added.The consideration by the Belarusian parliament of the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may be also connected with the European Union’s sanctions against top Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko, Moskovsky Komsomolets daily said. “Now Minsk is hinting to Brussels that in case of the wrong decision it will go to Moscow again,” the paper noted. Minsk has “an additional interest” in getting a loan from the European Union, the daily added.“The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states is one of the main topics in Russian-Belarusian relations,” Polit.ru website said. “In March, Lukashenko personally promised to Medvedev that the Belarusian parliament would take a decision,” it added. “However, in April the issue was not included in the agenda of the newly elected parliament,” the website noted.“The European Union invited Minsk to the Eastern Partnership, and Lukashenko is trying to maneuver between Moscow and the West,” Polit.ru said. In addition, Lukashenko has criticized Moscow for failing to grant a $500 million credit to Minsk.Observers considered the issue of the recognition of the two Caucasus republics by Belarus “hopeless” after Minsk in July ordered its citizens to observe Georgian laws while entering Abkazia and South Ossetia, the website said.In October, Lukashenko blamed Moscow for the fact that Minsk had not recognized the two republics. He stressed that the Russian media had begun criticizing the Belarusian leadership “at the moment when it was ready to take a decision on the recognition,” Polit.ru said.But following these statements Lukashenko made a step toward Russia, signing the agreement of the rapid reaction force of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Observers believe that Minsk has begun fulfilling its promises facing serious economic difficulties, the website said.To confirm this, the Russian media quoted Lukashenko as saying in Kiev that problems in cooperation of Russia and Belarus show “the depth of bilateral relations.” Some disagreements “do not evidence the crisis in the Union State of Russia and Belarus,” Lukashenko said.The Belarusian leader also stressed that cooperation between Moscow and Minsk has become “more pragmatic,” adding that it is “a natural pace of history and integration.”
Saturday, 16 May 2009
Lukashenko takes it all
A handful of protestors gathered on Minsk's main square on a recent afternoon. The police almost outnumbered the demonstrators, who chanted "Long Live Belarus" and held up photographs of various people they claimed were political prisoners and were being held without trial for a crime that other people had already been convicted of.
The banned red-and-white flag of the Belarusian opposition was waved and the crowd was dispersed.
"We gathered to express solidarity for the political prisoners Mikalay Autuvich, Yury Liavonau and Uladzmir Asipenka," said Alexander Atroshchankau of opposition group European Belarus.
"Mikalay Autuvich went on hunger strike in the Minsk pre-trial detention centre on April 16, 2009. He demands a public trial for himself and his colleagues or immediate release from prison. ... Amnesty International has recognised them as prisoners of conscience."
Such is the reaction in Belarus to President Lukashenko's human rights record and his assertion that all political prisoners have been released.
Concessions to human rights are one of the key issues in Lukashenko's new relationship with Europe, effectively launched at the Eastern Partnership summit in Prague last week. His claim that he had released all political prisoners earlier this year was considered a milestone.
"The time has come for a visible step change in relations with our East European neighbours", European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told the summit.
The presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and representatives from Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus met with EU officials to discuss deeper ties between the EU and its eastern neighbours and energy security.
"The Eastern Partnership summit fulfilled our expectations because we got unanimous and very strong support for the project from our fellow EU member states and from the six partner countries", Jan Sliva, a spokesman for the Czech Embassy to the EU, said by telephone. Funding promises of 600 million euros have been secured for the project until 2013.
Europe is pleased to have brought Belarus to the table at last, after years of trying to isolate the country over alleged human rights abuses. But the real success is for Lukashenko, said Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. "The EU had no other choice as it had not been successful with its isolation policy. It is a victory for Lukashenko as he and his policies have now been recognised by the EU", he said.
Minsk residents asked about the summit differed about the level of repression under Lukashenko, but agreed that the country needed to build closer ties with Europe. Significantly, all asked that their names not published for fear of repercussions.
"Europe should not ignore the real political situation here for the sake of some minor economic benefits," said one Minsk teacher. "They're turning a blind eye to real life here and human rights violations. People are still rotting in prisons for no reason, and if there are actually reasons they should be made public."
"When foreign papers say we have a dictator it is not so," said a Minsk student. "We live freely, here I am studying what I want to. It's just that compared with Europe we are considered the unlucky ones, and we should certainly accelerate our growth."
But political freedoms have still got progress to make, she said. "Any opposition is quashed at the roots and therefore there is no balance. The question of the opposition is a complicated one. Students, for example, can't join any opposition groups or they are kicked out of university."
Bringing Belarus closer to Europe would give the bloc stability on its eastern border and the region is crucial to the union's energy flow.
Economic problems at home make the timing apt for Lukashenko, and building bridges to Europe reduces his dependence on Russia, which earlier this year initially stalled on loaning Belarus $3 billion.
Russia has since pledged a smaller sum of $2 billion in credit and disbursed half that sum. The Kremlin announced plans in February to build an air defence system from Belarus' border with three NATO nations, through Russia and to the Chinese border. Nonetheless, a $2.5 billion loan from the IMF has also helped to bolster Belarusian coffers in a difficult time.
Recent overtures to Europe have assisted further. Developing economic relations with Europe is a prime concern for Lukashenko if Belarus is to weather the global economic crisis. The country needs technical expertise and investment as well as oil and gas. The former can be provided by Europe, the latter by Russia.
"We should make friends with Europe. We must make friends with all countries. That is the bottom line," said a Minsk shop assistant. "With Russia it is the same, we are Slavs together and so it is important."
"Belarus was one of the most important allies for Russia - it's a country without a colour revolution and a stable dictator more or less loyal to Moscow. It is Russia's Western neighbour, with a border to the EU, so also of strategic importance," said Meister. "An important sign of Lukashenko's rapprochement towards the EU was that he was not willing to recognise the independence of South Ossetia or Abkhazia."
This is what Moscow had dreaded, that an expanding EU would leave both parties competing for space.
"We will observe that Russia will set a more difficult pattern for the EU on the PCA, Energy and development or tensions in the post-Soviet space like with Georgia or [Ukraine] because of even just this development", Meister said
The banned red-and-white flag of the Belarusian opposition was waved and the crowd was dispersed.
"We gathered to express solidarity for the political prisoners Mikalay Autuvich, Yury Liavonau and Uladzmir Asipenka," said Alexander Atroshchankau of opposition group European Belarus.
"Mikalay Autuvich went on hunger strike in the Minsk pre-trial detention centre on April 16, 2009. He demands a public trial for himself and his colleagues or immediate release from prison. ... Amnesty International has recognised them as prisoners of conscience."
Such is the reaction in Belarus to President Lukashenko's human rights record and his assertion that all political prisoners have been released.
Concessions to human rights are one of the key issues in Lukashenko's new relationship with Europe, effectively launched at the Eastern Partnership summit in Prague last week. His claim that he had released all political prisoners earlier this year was considered a milestone.
"The time has come for a visible step change in relations with our East European neighbours", European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told the summit.
The presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and representatives from Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus met with EU officials to discuss deeper ties between the EU and its eastern neighbours and energy security.
"The Eastern Partnership summit fulfilled our expectations because we got unanimous and very strong support for the project from our fellow EU member states and from the six partner countries", Jan Sliva, a spokesman for the Czech Embassy to the EU, said by telephone. Funding promises of 600 million euros have been secured for the project until 2013.
Europe is pleased to have brought Belarus to the table at last, after years of trying to isolate the country over alleged human rights abuses. But the real success is for Lukashenko, said Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. "The EU had no other choice as it had not been successful with its isolation policy. It is a victory for Lukashenko as he and his policies have now been recognised by the EU", he said.
Minsk residents asked about the summit differed about the level of repression under Lukashenko, but agreed that the country needed to build closer ties with Europe. Significantly, all asked that their names not published for fear of repercussions.
"Europe should not ignore the real political situation here for the sake of some minor economic benefits," said one Minsk teacher. "They're turning a blind eye to real life here and human rights violations. People are still rotting in prisons for no reason, and if there are actually reasons they should be made public."
"When foreign papers say we have a dictator it is not so," said a Minsk student. "We live freely, here I am studying what I want to. It's just that compared with Europe we are considered the unlucky ones, and we should certainly accelerate our growth."
But political freedoms have still got progress to make, she said. "Any opposition is quashed at the roots and therefore there is no balance. The question of the opposition is a complicated one. Students, for example, can't join any opposition groups or they are kicked out of university."
Bringing Belarus closer to Europe would give the bloc stability on its eastern border and the region is crucial to the union's energy flow.
Economic problems at home make the timing apt for Lukashenko, and building bridges to Europe reduces his dependence on Russia, which earlier this year initially stalled on loaning Belarus $3 billion.
Russia has since pledged a smaller sum of $2 billion in credit and disbursed half that sum. The Kremlin announced plans in February to build an air defence system from Belarus' border with three NATO nations, through Russia and to the Chinese border. Nonetheless, a $2.5 billion loan from the IMF has also helped to bolster Belarusian coffers in a difficult time.
Recent overtures to Europe have assisted further. Developing economic relations with Europe is a prime concern for Lukashenko if Belarus is to weather the global economic crisis. The country needs technical expertise and investment as well as oil and gas. The former can be provided by Europe, the latter by Russia.
"We should make friends with Europe. We must make friends with all countries. That is the bottom line," said a Minsk shop assistant. "With Russia it is the same, we are Slavs together and so it is important."
"Belarus was one of the most important allies for Russia - it's a country without a colour revolution and a stable dictator more or less loyal to Moscow. It is Russia's Western neighbour, with a border to the EU, so also of strategic importance," said Meister. "An important sign of Lukashenko's rapprochement towards the EU was that he was not willing to recognise the independence of South Ossetia or Abkhazia."
This is what Moscow had dreaded, that an expanding EU would leave both parties competing for space.
"We will observe that Russia will set a more difficult pattern for the EU on the PCA, Energy and development or tensions in the post-Soviet space like with Georgia or [Ukraine] because of even just this development", Meister said
Sunday, 7 December 2008
EU Proposes Deeper Ties To 6 Ex-Soviet Nations
BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Seeking to extend its reach into Russia's backyard, the European Union on Wednesday proposed deeper ties with six former Soviet nations, even suggesting that it could embrace Belarus, often described as the continent's last dictatFour months after the Caucasus exploded into conflict, and with growing concern over energy supplies from Russia to the EU, nations on the bloc's eastern flank have emerged as a new priority.On Wednesday the European Commission sought to tempt them with offers of free trade deals, closer energy ties, easier access to visas and financial assistance programs worth a total of €600 million, or $760 million, over two years.The proposed new "Eastern Partnership" with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus is the boldest outreach to ex-Communist nations since the EU expanded in 2004 and 2007 to embrace the Baltics and all the former Warsaw Pact nations of Eastern Europe. Yet it will disappoint Ukraine, a country considerably bigger than France, and much smaller Moldova for holding out no firm prospect of EU membership.The new group, which is likely to meet in a Prague summit next spring, began life earlier this year because of pressure to counterbalance efforts by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, to forge closer links with and between Europe's southern neighbors.But the plan assumed greater importance after the fighting in Georgia in August, which underlined the power of a resurgent Russia and highlighted the risk of political instability in the east.Outlining the proposal, José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, denied suggestions that the EU was seeking to establish itself as an alternative power center to Moscow."The Cold War is over," said Barroso, "and where there is no Cold War, there should be no spheres of interest."Russia has reacted angrily to the expansion of NATO into its "near abroad" but has so far seen the EU as a less threatening prospect. The evolution of a free-trade zone on its doorstep might be beneficial to Moscow, analysts say.A senior European diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the subject, said that if the EU did not engage with these countries, there was a growing likelihood that Moscow would."If you don't offer these countries a future, there's always Russia," he said.Nicu Popescu, a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that the move could force Russia to engage with the EU over the future of the six nations, all once part of the Soviet Union itself."The EU has a desire to cooperate with Russia," Popescu said, "but the problem is that Russia doesn't want to cooperate with the EU within the neighborhood. Only when the EU acts does Russia take it seriously - what works is forced cooperation."But Popescu warned that the announcement has not resolved European divisions over how to handle any policy associated with Russia."The big problem for these countries," he said, "is not a lack of promises but a failure to deliver on those promises."Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European external relations commissioner, said that, while the Sarkozy plan for the Mediterranean focused on joint infrastructure projects, this plan would bring eastern nations closer to the EU by aligning them with the bloc's commercial standards.One unanswered question is the role of Belarus. In October, the European Union lifted temporarily a travel ban on the country's president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, following the release of political prisoners.That decision will be reviewed in March next year and, if confirmed, the Belarus president will be invited to a summit next April or May in Prague to launch the new "Eastern Partnership."The EU imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and about 40 other Belarussian officials in 1999 after crackdowns on the political opposition. In 2002 he was refused a visa by the Czech government when he wanted to attend a NATO summit meeting there.At the time, Lukashenko was reported to have threatened retaliation for the snub, saying he would flood Western Europe with illegal immigrants and drugs.Belarus is not a NATO member, though it cooperates with the alliance through its Partnership for Peace program.The issue of human rights does not feature prominently in the document published Wednesday on the proposed new partnership. The paper does, however, suggest that minimum standards need to be attained for those countries that want to negotiate an association agreement, which would intensify economic ties. That would be the next step toward EU membership.For Ukraine, the document has the benefit of differentiating it from other neighbor nations, like Syria, which have no aspiration to join the EU. But it also means that the favored relationship on offer to Kiev will be extended to Azerbaijan and Armenia. Perhaps to compensate, Barroso described Ukraine as being in the "avant-garde" of the Eastern Partnership.Poland has been a strong advocate of binding Ukraine more closely to European structures. Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a Polish center-right European deputy and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, welcomed the move."The recent crisis in the South Caucasus," he said, "has once again brought to evidence the need for a strong EU presence in its Eastern neighborhood. For the sake of stability on our doorstep, we have decided to move beyond declarations, improve on our up-to-date performance and offer tangible benefits to our closest neighbors."
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