BRUSSELS, Belgium -- A German-Polish proposal to send an EU-led diplomatic mission to Ukraine is unlikely to go forward before Ukraine's presidential elections, expected in October.
Germany and Poland in a joint letter to the Czech EU presidency on 23 April said the EU should try to repair relations between Ukraine's warring President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to help the country bounce out of its economic crisis.A "possible way to assist the country could be an EU mission to Kiev" the letter said.The political wrangling in Ukraine has slowed reforms needed for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release the second slice of an emergency €12.5 billion loan in mid-May.EU foreign ministers at lunch in Luxembourg on Monday (27 April) threw around ideas including sending EU top diplomat Javier Solana, senior figures from the Czech government, the European Commission, the US state department and the IMF itself.The mission was to scramble in the next few days or weeks, bringing Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko together for one day of intense talks to cover Ukraine-Russia relations as well as financial issues.Lithuania and Sweden backed the proposals. But the majority of EU states wanted to wait until the political situation in Ukraine becomes clearer following the 25 October vote.Mr Yushchenko is unlikely to stay in power with approval ratings near four percent. Ms Tymoshenko's popularity is also waning, while Russophone ex-prime minister Viktor Yanukovych and new figures such as 34-year old ex-central banker Arseny Yatsenyuk are on the rise."The prevailing mood is maybe we should wait. Maybe we should do something right after the elections instead," a high-level source present at Monday's EU meeting told EUobserver.Ukraine itself is politely lukewarm toward the German-Polish idea. "We are fully in favour of more active dialogue with the EU. We have not received concrete proposals but any troika mission is more than welcome," a Ukraine diplomat said.The office of Mr Solana is openly negative. "There is no trip foreseen. We are already in permanent contact with all the leaders there," his spokeswoman, Christina Gallach, told this website.Ukraine in limboThe diplomatic initiative is not the only event potentially on hold until the autumn elections.Swiss-based trading firm RosUkrEnergo has put on ice plans to sue Ukraine's state-owned gas distributor, Naftogaz, over its alleged misappropriation of over €3 billion worth of gas held in Naftogaz storage tanks.The planned lawsuit would increase the risk of a Naftogaz bankruptcy, putting in danger Naftogaz' 19 January contract with Russia to transit gas to the EU.An EU-Ukraine agreement of 23 March to Europeanise Ukraine's gas transit network is also unlikely to see major developments before the elections, analysts predict.Some commentators say the EU-Ukraine agreement could lead to the "unbundling" of Naftogaz in a move that could also impact Russia-Ukraine energy relations.The unbundling scenario foresees a separate legal entity, UkrTransGas, taking over management of Ukraine's vast pipeline network and the EU gas transit business. Meanwhile, Naftogaz would be left with the unprofitable Ukraine domestic distribution business and mounting debts to its Russian supplier, Gazprom.If Naftogaz defaulted on its Russian payments, the new model would leave Gazprom unable to take part-ownership of Ukraine's pipelines in lieu of Naftogaz debt.Constitutional problemAnalyst Olena Prystayko of the EU-Russia Centre in Brussels supported the idea of an EU mission to Ukraine without waiting for the presidential elections, which, according to her, will not guarantee political stabilisation.Irrespectively of the election results, it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will turn away from its path of European integration, so the EU should not hold back its initiatives until the result comes out, she said."The unstable situation in Ukraine is only in part due to a fight between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko as personalities. But we should not forget the institutional aspect - we have not completed constitutional reform." The lack of clear separation of the president and prime minister's powers in the country's constitution could see the future incumbents of the two offices at each other's throats, Ms Prystayko explained.
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