An unprecedented nationwide turnout for May Day demonstrations and rallies is expected on Friday as workers look to protest against the deepening economic crisis.
The traditional labour holiday, usually a festive affair dominated by nostalgia for Soviet times, could serve as a litmus test of public discontent, protest organisers and other labour activists said ahead of the holiday.
Officials in Moscow are bracing themselves for a much bigger turnout than usual from across the entire political spectrum.
"The mayor's office has received over 43 requests from various political and public organizations, as well as civilian groups, to hold meetings, marches and demonstrations on May 1, with a the total number of participants exceeding 70,000 people," Leonid Krutakov, a City Hall spokesman, was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying on Tuesday. "The mayor's office has never seen so many requests for public events."
And Moscow is not alone. Taking advantage of Friday's holiday, the Communist Party said it expected bigger-than-usual demonstrations across the country.
"There will be mass demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and, of course, in the industrial centres, such as Novosibirsk and Omsk. We expect a lot of people to turn out in the Altai region, in Udmurtia and North Ossetia," said Vladimir Kashin, deputy chairman of the party's Central Committee and a Duma deputy. "People will demand a change in the government's course, and indeed a change of government, as well as raising economic and social demands, such as a halt in the growth of tariffs and pharmaceutical prices."
Kashin said his party expected up to 7,000 people to turn up in central Russian cities such as Ryazan and Voronezh.
He added that the party had agreed to hold 10 joint protests with independent trade unions.
The crisis would mean that this year's parades would be larger than in previous years, Kashin said. "It's an infringement upon the social, economic and political rights of the workers on the part of the bourgeoisie. And the working class does not have any other holidays when they can protest together. Of course, joblessness and a drop in prices have played a role. Meanwhile, the oligarchy is embezzling funds destined for the people."
The Federation of Independent Trade Unions, which is loyal to the government and affiliated to the United Russia party, acknowledged that this year's May Day would be different. The federation expects to see about 2.5 million people join its demonstrations nationwide, which is about the same as last year, said spokesman Alexander Shershukov. "Last year, it was more of a holiday," he said. "This year, because of falling standards of living the accent will be on the problems."
Regional branches of the federation are hoping for a more open discussion on what the government can do better in fighting the crisis, said Shershukov.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, was not immediately available to comment on how the government was monitoring the traditional holiday for signs of public discontent.
Shershukov's predictions, meanwhile, mirrored those of some independent activists, who said that they did not expect more people, but they did expect the protests to be more active.
"I can't speak for all regions, but in Moscow and St. Petersburg there will be traditional labour marches - for the workers, for socialism and for revolution," said Alexander Lekhtman of the Institute of Collective Action, a left-wing pressure group.
"I don't think there will be a lot more people, but the quality will be better. The number of organisations has increased. For example, in St. Petersburg, there will be workers from General Motors. I can't say anything about broken glass or riots - I don't expect that will happen."
Some experts said they did not expect massive social unrest.
"I think it will be on the local level and I think in most cities it will be the Communists and other left-wing groups," said Yevgeny Gontmakher, director of social studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Gontmakher caused something of a stir in November with an article in Vedomosti warning of potentially massive social unrest as a result of the crisis.
"The slogans of course will be against the government, even against Putin, but I think it'll be very peaceful, without any conflict with the police," he said.
"This year of course there'll be more people and more political slogans. Before, maybe you remember, on May 1 the typical slogans were for higher salaries, against unemployment or some other demands. Now it'll be more political, but it's not a big event in our political lives."
One pro-government researcher poured cold water on the idea of bigger protests developing.
"The opinion polls we have been analysing from the All-Russian Centre for Public Opinion [VTsIOM] all suggest that protest sentiment is at zero," said Olga Kuzina, a sociologist and general director of the National Agency for Financial Studies, which is associated with VTsIOM, a state-run polling agency.
"There won't be massive unrest. If people blame someone, it's their boss, or the regional administration. I think people understand that protesting against the crisis is like protesting against the sun rising."
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