With one candidate facing an ammonia attack, Russia's most famous murder suspect flitting in and out of the race and the country's leading freemason joining a cast-list of 23 hopefuls at the latest count, it's no surprise that the Sochi mayoral election is seen by some as a farce.
But beneath the froth generated by this chorus line of cabaret candidates, political commentators say the race is fast becoming a litmus test of government policy in the face of the economic meltdown - and the authorities' willingness to allow a greater measure of plurality into the political system.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, visiting the city for a meeting on the Sochi Olympics with President Dmitry Medvedev, top officials and businessmen on Monday, was moved to urge voters not to get drawn into the political circus which has engulfed the Black Sea resort as voters prepare to select a mayor on April 26, and warned that "politicians should not use the Olympics to further their own goals."
United Russia has chosen acting mayor Anatoly Pakhomov as its candidate, and his most serious opposition is set to come from charismatic opposition spokesman Boris Nemtsov and Alexander Lebedev, the cosmopolitan media tycoon who has previously represented both United Russia and Just Russia. The Communists have put forward Yury Dzagania, while the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party replaced murder suspect Andrei Lugovoi - wanted in Britain in connection with the 2006 death of Alexander Litvinenko - with local politician Alexei Kolesnikov.
Medvedev has recently said he welcomes criticism of the government's anti-crisis measures, and has hinted in recent months that he is more open to pluralism than Putin was as president.
Vladimir Pribylovsky, an analyst with the Panorama think tank, said Lebedev could possibly mount a successful challenge if there was a level playing field in the election.
"Elections of city mayors are almost the only real polls left," Pribylovsky said. "If this were a fair election, there is a chance that Lebedev might win in the second round. Lebedev, Pakhomov and Nemtsov would likely be left in the second round, and if Lebedev were to join forces with Nemtsov, he could win. However, the government will make sure that such a thing does not happen."
Sergey Markov, a senior United Russia State Duma deputy and an adviser to the government, agreed that mayoral elections were now more competitive than Duma races.
"The chances for practical competition in other elections have shrunk," he said by telephone. "People like Nemtsov find it difficult to compete for parliament because they have no time to get a good party list, so mayoral elections appear to be the most competitive, interesting and intense."
Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister under Boris Yeltsin and an outspoken critic of Sochi's Olympic commitments, has vowed to continue campaigning despite being attacked by an ammonia-spraying assailant on his way to a press conference on Monday. In an interview with Ekho Moskvy radio he accused pro-government youth group 'Nashi' of the assault, prompting a law suit demanding a million roubles in compensation.
"It's good publicity for Nemtsov," said Markov. "He will want to come back into mainstream politics, so Sochi is all about publicity for him. He has a theoretical possibility of winning, but the people of Sochi know they are faced with real problems which can't be solved in opposition to the federal and regional authorities, but only through co-operation with them."
Nikolai Petrov, a regional political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, said that he didn't believe Nemtsov would be allowed to stand. "Nemtsov was born in Sochi, he's pretty popular - especially when there are lots of conflicts and problems," said Petrov. "If he's competing with a dull official like Pakhomov he can win. But Russia's electoral legislation is so complicated it's possible to push anybody out at any time over various technicalities."
Petrov added that inflating the list of candidates before the final registrations were confirmed helped the Kremlin to neutralise the opposition without looking heavy-handed. "To exclude such candidates [as Nemtsov] without looking like the bad guys, they need to attract other names," he added. "If only five of 15 people drop out it would look pretty normal."
He was dubious about Lebedev's prospects, saying that the businessman was not a serious candidate.
"We just don't know if he's trying to use politics to solve his problems or vice versa," said Petrov. "He can't be a truly independent candidate because he does business in Russia and so is dependent on the Kremlin. He could try to sell his participation - or non-participation - for business benefits."
Nominations for the poll closed on Thursday - with 23 hopefuls including arm-wrestling champion Stanislav Koretsky and ballerina Anastasia Volochkova planning to put themselves forward. The local authorities will spend the next week checking the applications and officially registering candidates ahead of an April 2 deadline.
Given their recent electoral shock in Murmansk, it might seem surprising that United Russia - a party unfamiliar with losing elections - has kept faith with a relatively low-profile, local candidate.
Markov insisted, however, that it was essential to have a local as mayor as the city prepares for a place in the international limelight in 2014.
"Sochi is attractive to the whole country, because of the Olympics and because everyone likes to have a couple of weeks' holiday there," Markov said. "But local people understand that their problems are not the problems of a big ... city, but problems of a medium-sized local city." He explained that in the past rival agendas had left the city and the regional authority in a political stalemate.
"There was a political battle and the regional governor won it," said Markov. "He based his power and popularity on the poorer people, which was very different from the style of rich new Russian investors who totally ignore human interests. There's no reason for the federal people to change this situation."
The election was triggered by the resignation of Mayor Vladimir Afanasyenkov on October 30 on health grounds.
No comments:
Post a Comment