Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Tymoshenko Husband Attacks Ukraine Leader From Exile

KIEV, Ukraine -- The husband of Ukraine's jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko said on Tuesday “enormous pressure” and persecution by President Viktor Yanukovich's government forced him to flee to the Czech Republic.
leksander Tymoshenko, 51, who was granted political asylum in the Czech Republic on Jan. 6, said in a statement that by fleeing abroad he had deprived Yanukovich of additional leverage over the opposition.

“The regime in Ukraine has not shied away from using dirty methods.

They were not able to break Yulia Tymoshenko either through intimidation, the courts, imprisonment or torture.

So they resorted to even uglier means.

They began to persecute me and other members of her family,” he said.

Yulia Tymoshenko, a charismatic politician, helped lead the 2004 Orange Revolution street protests which thwarted a first bid for the presidency by Yanukovich.

She went on to serve two terms as prime minister.

But, after Yanukovich made a comeback and beat her in an election for the presidency in Feb. 2010, criminal proceedings were brought against her and other members of the opposition culminating in her prosecution last year.

She was jailed for seven years in October on a charge of exceeding her powers by forcing through a 2009 gas deal with Russia as prime minister which the Yanukovich government says saddled Ukraine with an exorbitant price for gas.

The 51-year-old is now in prison in Kharkiv some 500 km (300 miles) away from the capital Kiev.

Her trial was condemned by the United States and the European Union as politically motivated and the affair has seriously strained Yanukovich's ties with the West.

Oleksander Tymoshenko, who kept a low profile during his wife's roller-coaster political career, is part owner of a business registered in the Czech Republic.

“I do not want to provide Yanukovich with any additional leverage against the opposition and for me political asylum is the only way to achieve this goal,” he said in his statement.

Russian toddler dies in Bryansk pavement collapse

A toddler in Bryansk in western Russia has died after falling through a hole that opened up as his mother took him for a walk.

The pavement gave way because of a burst hot-water pipe, emergency officials said.

The boy's mother, 26, was pulled alive from the hole by her traffic police officer husband, reports say.

But he was unable to rescue his son, who was thrown from his pushchair and fell into the sewer below.

"The woman managed to grab on to the edge of the collapsed pavement, which saved her life," a Bryansk official was quoted as saying.

Her husband had apparently been on duty in the area on Sunday afternoon and rushed to the scene, climbing down into the hole with the aid of a rope to pull his wife to safety.

Named by Russian media as Tatyana Didenko, she was taken to hospital in shock.
Although remnants of the one-and-a-half-year-old boy's clothing were found by search teams, it was not until late on Monday afternoon that his body was discovered.

The toddler, named by reports as Kirill, was found 6km (3.5mi) from the spot where he disappeared, according to police.

The cause of the pavement collapse is unclear but investigators are looking at problems with the construction of a local sewage plant.

Bryansk regional governor Nikolai Denin told Russia 24 TV that recent mild weather could have caused a pipe to rupture, leading to sand below the pavement being washed away.

Investigators have opened a criminal manslaughter case.

Mr Denin said a large proportion of the city's infrastructure was not in top condition: "We have to start rebuilding things because otherwise this could happen again."

Russian blogger Navalny unmasks 'Kremlin' photo smear

The Russian blogger leading Russia's vote-rigging protests has accused supporters of Vladimir Putin of seeking to smear him with a fake photo.

Alexei Navalny proved that a picture in a newspaper distributed by Putin supporters was a forgery when he published the original on his blog.

The faked photo shows Mr Navalny alongside fugitive Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky, who lives in London.

Protesters fear the March presidential vote may be rigged to favour Mr Putin.

Currently prime minister, he is standing for re-election after serving two previous terms as president.

Alleged fraud at parliamentary elections in December sparked the biggest anti-government rallies seen in Moscow since Soviet times.

Mr Navalny, a lawyer who campaigns against corruption, was a key speaker at the last rally, on 24 December, which drew an estimated 100,000 people.
Young activists sporting blue rain jackets marked "Vladimir Putin" were spotted handing out newspapers containing the forged photo in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg.

The photo shows Mr Navalny and Mr Berezovsky standing beside each other, smiling for the camera, with the caption: "Alexei Navalny has never made any secret of the fact that the oligarch Boris Berezovsky gives him money to fight Putin."

Russia has been trying for years to extradite Mr Berezovsky, who was granted political asylum in the UK in 2003. He is wanted on fraud charges, which he denies.

In a blog posting which led with the words "News from [Vladimir] Putin's electoral campaign", Mr Navalny published the original photo, sent to him months earlier by photographer Alexei Yushenkov as a souvenir.

Taken on 25 May in the offices of Russian radio station Moscow Echo, the snap shows the blogger alongside Mikhail Prokhorov, a Russian billionaire who has since declared himself a candidate in the March election.
On his own blog, Mr Yushenkov confirmed that the photo had never been published because of its poor quality and he surmised that it had been stolen when Mr Navalny's email account was hacked last year.

Russian bloggers have been posting their own parodies of the fake photo, some of which were published on Mr Navalny's blog.

The photozhabas, as digitally altered images are known in Russian internet slang, show the blogger posing with everyone from Soviet dictator Josef Stalin to Bender, the robot in the cartoon Futurama.

In another development, the Urals editor of popular Russian newspaper Argumenty i Fakty has denied any link to the doctored photograph.

Dmitry Bondarev told the BBC's Russian Service that his publication had no connection to the other paper, which bears the name "Argumenty i Fakty - Urals Digest" and looks similar.

A note on the paper with the fake photo, which is reportedly a special edition praising Mr Putin and trashing the opposition, says that it was compiled by the All-Russia Popular Front - a political coalition launched by Mr Putin in May.

According to Yekaterinburg blogger nuclOid, 80,000 copies were printed.

Saturday, 7 January 2012

The East-To-West Pipeline Game

The early opening of the Nord Stream pipeline is the latest gambit in the geopolitical chess match between Russia and Europe.

Pipelines connect the energy rich with the energy poor, essentially tying them together forever and in the process giving the transited lands a crucial role to play.

In the gas pipeline game being played by Russia, the former Soviet satellite states and Europe, everyone appears set on upping the stakes this winter.

Which explains why the ubiquitous Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister and, as now announced, the certain, again, next President of Russia, officiated on September 6 as the Nord Stream pipeline started pumping “technical gas” (necessary to build pressure) in advance of pumping gas directly from Russia to its German destination via a route that bypasses troublesome former Soviet states like the Ukraine.

The pipeline achieved this feat by being laid offshore and traversing the Baltic Sea.

It is hardly surprising that the Russian premier should take such interest in the project given the fact that foreign gas sales account for about 20 percent of the country’s income.

In Russia, as Steve LeVine noted in Foreign Policy, “control of the flow of hydrocarbons means raw power.”

With Putin, as we have written in From Soviet to Putin and Back, power is the seminal quality.

With European gas consumption expected to grow by a further 50 percent over the next decade, it is set to remain a highly lucrative market for Russia’s most important export and a necessary element of the very real goal coveted by that country: control over Europe.

The early opening of Nord Stream was surprising, and it represents the latest throw of the dice in the pipeline game.
Running under the Baltic past Finland, Sweden and Denmark, Nord Stream achieves two goals in just one play.

First, it eliminates any chance of a repeat of previous years’ interruptions in gas supply to Europe, the result of ongoing market skirmishes between Russia and one of the transit countries – Ukraine.

And, at the same time, the opening of Nord Stream leaves Ukraine – a country without significant energy reserves of its own – even more vulnerable to having its gas supplies cut off this winter.

A spat over prices and an outstanding bill have already seen the Ukrainian government threatening unspecified “consequences” if Russia’s gas prices aren’t lowered.

Alyona Getmanchuk, Director of Kiev’s World Policy Institute, has complained about Gazprom’s policy that ties its contract gas prices to the world oil price.

Given that the impact of U.S. shale gas is keeping gas prices down, Getmanchuk wants to sever the link between world gas and oil prices, much as companies in Germany and Italy are trying to do.

The partnership between Russia’s Gazprom and Germany’s E.ON and BASF-Wintershall anticipates that the 1,220-kilometer Nord Stream pipeline will deliver up to 55 billion cubic meters (just about 2 Tcf) of gas per year to Europe when it reaches capacity in 2013.

This is a sizeable chunk of Russia’s current total exports to both Eastern and Western Europe of 4.5 Tcf.

In a pre-launch television address, Putin spelled out how it would also offer Russia a freer “local” hand in future negotiations, stating, “Gradually, in a calmer manner we are departing from the diktat of the transit states” – a dark allusion to dealings with the Ukraine, in particular.

Not that Ukraine is about to repeat the mistakes of 2006 and 2009.

Talks between Kiev and Moscow may be currently deadlocked, but Ukraine’s President Victor Yanukovych has already rebuffed both an offer to join the Russian-dominated Customs Union and a Gazprom-dangled carrot of an $8 billion discount on its outstanding invoice, the latter amounting to an effective buyout of the Ukrainian national oil and gas company, Naftohaz Ukrainy.

Instead, Yanukovych has threatened to take Russia to “international arbitration” over the terms of its contractual agreement with Gazprom while, at the same time, resuming attempts to buy direct from gas-rich neighbor Turkmenistan, as it did in 2003.

But the plain fact is, in an energy-starved country, Ukraine may not have a lot of choices and could well be facing yet another cold winter of discontent over gas imports from Russia.

And the tangled web of Eurasian pipeline politics doesn’t stop there.

Europe, Nabucco & South Stream

While the EU will no doubt welcome its states avoiding being caught up in the spat between former Soviet allies, an online Nord Stream creates as many political problems as it solves.

Within days of the Nord Stream launch, Russia was back-slamming the EU over its offer to broker talks between energy-rich Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan – which, traditionally, have not enjoyed good relations – with the aim of constructing a trans-Caspian pipeline supplying Turkmen gas to the gas-starved EU-backed southern corridor Nabucco project.

A Caspian-Nabucco pipeline link-up would not only bypass Russian territory but would fulfill Europe’s strategy of diversifying away from its current reliance on Russian gas imports.

Nabucco is thus the chief rival to the other Russian-backed southern corridor pipeline, South Stream, which would provide a direct link with southern Europe via the Black Sea.

South Stream could be pumping gas before 2017 – ahead of Nabucco and precisely why, in May 2011, a Russian Gazprom-led “charm offensive” saw all of South Stream’s operators, including representatives from Germany’s BASF and Italy’s ENI, wining and dining EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger in Brussels.

Leaving aside the murky geopolitics that sees German and Italian companies effectively co-operating in undermining the EU-backed Nabucco project, South Stream could still fall afoul of EU rules that would force Gazprom to open South Stream to independent suppliers.

That’s something Gazprom would be loath to do.

Meanwhile, there is also an intriguing sub-plot for European geopolitics.

While Nord Stream diminished any immediate concerns over gas supply interruptions as a result of tensions between Russia and its former satellite states, the EU energy minister currently wants European governments to give him a mandate to speak with “one voice,” not only in negotiations over the Caspian pipeline link for Nabucco but also its political corollary – the power to block individual EU states from cutting bilateral energy deals without close scrutiny by Brussels.

But a mandate effectively devolving power over national energy security matters to Brussels is likely to test the resolve of leaders in most European capitals, especially Berlin.

A Tangled Geopolitical Web

The Russo-German “special relationship,” as we have noted elsewhere, remains the Grand Narrative underlying Eurasian pipeline politics.

And that means two things.

First, Russia will hold the strong regional hand for years to come.

And second, Germany, for all its EU rhetoric, will, as the involvement of its national companies and former leaders with the Russian-backed Nord and South Stream pipelines reveals, continue to undermine the attainment of a “one voice” EU energy policy.

Moreover, these words concluding our year-ago article, “Turkmen Gas: ‘Anywhere but Europe,’ Urges Russia,” may seem, in light of recent developments, ominously prescient for Caspian geopolitics generally:

A Kremlin security document, approved by President Dmitry Medvedev and published by the Russian Security Council in May 2009 has already sanctioned the use of military force to protect Russia’s post-Soviet return to “energy superpower” status, specifically citing the Caspian as an area of potential conflict.

The invasion of Georgia in 2006 – does anyone really think it was all about South Ossetia? – is powerful testimony that Russia’s foreign policy “tank” is still fuelled by oil, or gas.

Ukrainian Sailors From Nemo Vessel To Get Visas To Return Home Soon, Says Foreign Ministry

ANKARA, Turkey -- Ankara has given formal permission to issue visas to six Ukrainian citizens, crewmembers of the Nemo cargo ship, arrested in Turkey.
The issue of the return of the Ukrainians to their homeland is being settled, the press service of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported on Thursday.

"According to the information received from the Consulate General of Ukraine in Istanbul, at 1810 on January 5, the Kocaeli port police received official permission from Ankara to issue visas for all six Ukrainian citizens - former members of the crew of the Nemo vessel," the Foreign Ministry said.

The Ukrainian Consulate General is currently settling the issue of accommodating the sailors for the night and their return to Ukraine.

The case is controlled by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the press service reported.

As reported, seven Ukrainian sailors from the Nemo, an Estonian cargo ship that has been under arrest in the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) for a year, went on a hunger strike in a Turkish prison in the town of Derince on January 4, 2012.

The dry cargo ship was arrested by local authorities on January 11, 2011 due to the debt of the ship's bankrupt owner.

The ship was transferred to Swedbank Estonia due to the debtor's loans, but the crew then refused to leave the Nemo without getting salaries.

On December 28, 2011, the sailors left the ship and were placed in a Turkish police department, waiting for the permission to leave the country.

Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry reported that since December 28, the sailors were in the police department for work with foreigners in the city of Izmit, Kocaeli province.

Officials Defend Tymoshenko Prison Move

KHARKIV, Ukraine -- The transfer of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko from a Kiev penitentiary to one in Kharkiv was lawful, prison officials said Thursday.
Tymoshenko's daughter and defense lawyer, Eugenia Tymoshenko, called the move from the detention center to the penal colony "absolutely outrageous and illegal," ITAR-Tass reported Tuesday.

Eugenia said she was not informed of the move at the time.

Prison officials cited Ukraine's penal code, saying people sentenced to prison are sent to serve their term no later than 10 days after a sentence goes into effect, Interfax reported Thursday.

"Thus, Tymoshenko's transfer from Kiev detention center to the penal colony on Dec. 30, 2011, was made in compliance with the current legislation within the statutory period," prison officials said in a statement.

Several hundred supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko organized a picket outside the Kharkiv penitentiary, carrying national flags, symbols of her party and signage, despite a court ban, ITAR-Tass said.

Defense counsel Serhiy Vlasenko said the former prime minister's health has deteriorated in prison.

"Despite the bravura statements by the Health Ministry, she cannot move unaided, so it is difficult for me to judge what they mean by satisfactory health condition.

Probably, the main task of the Health Ministry's medical commission is to misinform the international community about the health condition of Yulia Tymoshenko," he said outside the prison Thursday.

Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison Oct. 11 for abuse of office in the 2009 signing of Russian gas contracts.

She was also fined $200 million.

Husband Of Ukraine's Tymoshenko Wins Czech Asylum

KIEV, Ukraine -- The husband of jailed Ukrainian former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been granted political asylum in the Czech Republic.
The news was announced hours after media reports that Oleksander Tymoshenko had requested asylum at the end of last year.

Mr Tymoshenko's wife was jailed for seven years in October for abuse of office at a controversial trial.

Her husband, who has Czech business interests, stood by her in court.

The Czech interior ministry confirmed his request for asylum had been granted on Friday.

Last year, the country granted asylum to Bohdan Danylyshyn, a former economy minister in Tymoshenko's cabinet.

A row ensued in which Ukraine expelled two Czech diplomats for alleged espionage.

Mr Tymoshenko has a stake in the Czech company International Industrial Projects.

His wife was convicted of abuse of power over a gas deal she signed with Russia in 2009.

She accused President Viktor Yanukovych, her political rival since the 2004 Orange Revolution, of orchestrating the case against her.

The EU and others voiced concern that her trial might have been politically motivated.

Tymoshenko was recently moved from custody in the capital Kiev to a prison in the eastern city of Kharkiv.