Saturday, 23 January 2010

The Man Of The Moment In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Serhiy Tigipko headed Viktor Yanukovych's campaign during the infamous presidential election in 2004, when their victory -- in voting widely believed to have been rigged -- prompted thousands onto the streets.
The Orange Revolution removed Yanukovych and the rest of the old administration from power. But that hasn't stopped Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the Orange Revolution's heroine, from hoping Tigipko will join her side this time.The mathematics are simple: Tymoshenko won 25 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election on January 17. That's 10 percent behind her rival Yanukovych, a gap she needs to make up to have any chance of winning the presidency in the second round.Backing from Tigipko -- who came from nowhere to place third with 13 percent -- is Tymoshenko's surest bet to convince undecided Ukrainians to vote for her.Tigipko is a former central banker and amateur bodybuilder who recently appeared bare-chested on the cover of a glossy magazine. He's insisted he won't back any candidate to win, but there's intense competition to get him to change his mind.Tymoshenko first began wooing him at her campaign headquarters in Kyiv's Hyatt Hotel on election night. But in an interview with RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service on January 21, Tigipko said he hadn't accepted her offer of the prime minister's seat, along with half the cabinet's other posts. But he said talks were continuing, and left the window open for changing his mind."I don't know yet. I'm going to listen and I'm going to think about it," Tigipko said.Many believe accepting the post would be suicidal. Ukraine is mired in a crippling economic crisis that would ensure that any new prime minister responsible for improving people's lives would quickly become unpopular.Tigipko is said to be creating a new political party. Like the other 15 losing candidates in the first round, his campaign during the past year is seen as focused not on the presidential vote, but on snap parliamentary elections most believe will be called in May.Tigipko founded a bank in the early 1990s that he later sold to the Swedbank group for almost $1 billion. Although he was close to Yanukovych, he hasn't been tainted by the corruption allegations that have hurt many other Yanukovych allies. Many of those who voted for Tigipko said they wanted a fresh new leader to replace the same old faces they see as being tied to big business and equally corrupt.CliffhangerSo far, no one in Ukraine is predicting who will win the razor's-edge presidential competition most believe will be decided only on election night.Much of Yanukovych's lead can be explained by a split among Orange supporters who divided their votes between three candidates: Tymoshenko; the fourth-place finisher, former central banker Serhiy Yatsenyuk, who won almost 7 percent and also says he won't endorse anyone; and President Viktor Yushchenko, who won more than 5 percent.Some believe Orange voters will inevitably rally behind Tymoshenko. But Ukrainians tend to vote for personalities, not issues, and some analysts say a certain number of those who voted against Tymoshenko in the first round won't be any more likely to back her in the runoff.Most believe the election will come down to the candidates' campaigning. Inside the Tymoshenko campaign, politicians say they're relishing an out-and-out fight. During the first round, they were badly constrained by a fear of disillusioning potential second-round supporters by attacking Tymoshenko's fellow Orange rivals too strongly.This time, they say Tymoshenko's task is to paint a stark picture of the difference between her anticorruption, pro-European policies and those Yanukovych, who served two jail terms in his youth for assault and battery, and who they say will turn back the Orange Revolution's democratic gains.It will be down to voters to decide whether or not they believe her. The election will be Tymoshenko's to win or lose, but Tigipko's endorsement would be a coup that would stack the odds heavily in her favor.

Atlantic Eye: As The Cookies Crumble

PRAGUE, Czech Republic -- Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko -- the leader of the 2004 Orange Revolution, poisoned and disfigured by his enemies, a darling of the West -- is not-so-surprisingly ousted in the first round of presidential elections by two pro-Russian candidates -- one more corrupt than the other.
The Orange Revolution -- which should have brought Ukraine a democracy and free-market economy, closer to NATO and the European Union -- is all but dead.Yushchenko succumbed to his own arrogance failing to make the runoff for president and leaving the field to the ever corrupt Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and her equally corrupt predecessor Viktor Yanukovych.In 2005 Yanukovych, who had nearly stolen the disputed presidential elections through ballot stuffing before the Ukrainian Supreme Court threw out the results, was forced into a rerun won at that time by Yushchenko.Tymoshenko, one of Yushchenko's allies, was always the power behind the throne. Not to be underestimated and with an ego the size of Jupiter, Tymoshenko slowly took the reins of power around her and forced herself to be appointed Yushchenko's prime minister.Yushchenko would have been better off remaining Ukraine's Central Bank governor where he was actually doing an outstanding job.Tymoshenko became a billionaire in the early days through dubious business dealings.Yanukovych is a convicted criminal and former Soviet apparatchik.Nonetheless, in this choice between cholera and typhus -- and I know both -- I go with Yanukovych.

Yanukovych Consistently Russia-Leaning In Ukraine’s Presidential Election

Russia’s authorities have adopted a position of studied equidistance between the two main candidates during Ukraine’s presidential election campaign.
Moscow has interfered only to the extent of ostracizing President Viktor Yushchenko, whose re-election chances it knew to be nil. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Party of Regions leader (formerly two-time prime minister) Viktor Yanukovych will face each other in the February 7 run-off.Moscow as well as Western governments have insisted throughout the campaign that they would work with either winner after the election, only stipulating that the process be free and fair.Formal equidistance seems to be the only possible option at this stage, in view of the volatile race with an unpredictable outcome. But this option also reflects the lessons of the 2004 presidential election in Ukraine, when the Kremlin’s Yanukovych project failed outright, and the opposite Yushchenko project unraveled soon afterward.His presidency already sinking in 2006, Yushchenko tried to keep afloat by bringing RosUkrEnergo into Ukraine (as Yanukovych had first decided to do in 2004 as prime minister) and bringing Yanukovych back as prime minister (2006-2007) on a fast track toward the presidency again.Yanukovych’s programmatic statements during this campaign differ starkly from Tymoshenko’s positions regarding Ukraine-Russia relations and Ukraine’s place in Europe. Theirs are two different foreign policies.Yanukovych’s stated positions are aligned with Russian policy objectives on some issues of central significance to Ukraine, his prescriptions opposite to those of Tymoshenko.On gas supplies and transit, Tymoshenko has signed agreements in 2009 with Russia on supplies and with the European Union on modernizing the transit system. The agreements envisage European-level prices for Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and E.U.-led technical and financial assistance to the transit system’s modernization, keeping Ukrainian ownership intact.Yanukovych, however, calls for sharing control of the Ukrainian system with Gazprom, in return for discounted prices on Russian gas supplies. Yanukovych has brought back the old idea of creating a Gazprom-led international consortium to implement that bargain.Apparently reflecting the Donetsk steel and chemical industries’ need for low-priced gas supplies, Yanukovych is turning this issue into a campaign promise of cheap gas for the people, vowing to renegotiate the agreements with Russia.Regarding the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union, Yanukovych considers the possibilities of Ukraine participating in it selectively, with regard to certain categories of goods and commodities (steel, chemicals, and agricultural products presumably topping the list of protectionist interests).Moscow is willing to negotiate the terms of such Ukrainian participation. This would, however, complicate and slow down the negotiations launched by the Tymoshenko government toward an association agreement with the E.U. and a trade agreement with it. Yanukovych claims that Ukraine could have it both ways, in an overarching framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO).Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, however, are not WTO members; and their chances have become more remote since Russia insists on their admission as a group, which is unacceptable to WTO countries, including those of the E.U.Yanukovych supports a prolongation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s stationing on Ukraine’s territory. In return for higher rent payments (currently a derisory $ 95 million per year), Yanukovych says that he would favor extending the Russian fleet’s presence beyond the 2017 deadline, and delaying official debate until the deadline draws closer (thus pre-determining the deadline’s breach).According to him, the Russian fleet enhances Ukraine’s and Russia’s common security; and extending the fleet’s presence would fit within Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s concept of a new European security architecture. Tymoshenko, however, is citing the Ukrainian constitution’s ban on the stationing of foreign forces on Ukraine’s territory beyond 2017.Following Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, Yanukovych came out in favor of “recognition” of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Elements in his Party of Regions submitted resolutions to that effect in the Verkhovna Rada and the Crimean regional legislature in 2009.Yanukovych did not seem to actively support that effort but he did not distance himself from it either.In line with Russia’s policy, Yanukovych supports conferring official status on the Russian language in Ukraine’s regions (not necessarily confined to the east and south). This would be impossible to legislate at the national level because it would necessitate a two-thirds majority in the Verkhovma Rada to amend the constitution.Yanukovych (as well as Moscow) call for adopting the European charter of minority and regional languages in Ukraine, so as to restore what in practice would be a privileged status for Russian at the level of Ukraine’s regions.The Party of Regions has a cooperation agreement operating with Russia’s party of power, United Russia. According to the Duma’s international affairs committee chairman, Konstantin Kosachev, the two parties’ relations have a “systemic character”.Tymoshenko’s presidential candidacy, however, has been endorsed in emphatic terms by the European People’s Party, the umbrella organization of Europe’s Christian-Democrat parties.

Ukraine’s Tigipko Warns State Of Emergency Possible

KIEV, Ukraine -- Serhiy Tigipko, who came third in Ukraine’s Jan. 17 presidential vote and may become kingmaker in the Feb. 7 runoff, said a state of emergency is possible and there may be “problems” with the transfer of power.
Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko will contest the second round after Tigipko and incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko were eliminated. Both candidates have said they’re prepared to contest the outcome of next month’s vote if they suspect irregularities. Tigipko said he had “consultations” with Yushchenko since Jan 17.“There will be problems with the transfer of power” after the runoff, Tigipko, 49, said in an interview in Kiev today. “That may be prolonged for a certain period of time. Yushchenko has proved he is not afraid of tough decisions and he can introduce a state of emergency. I still want to believe that this won’t happen and that the loser in the runoff will accept defeat.”The economy of the former Soviet state is suffering the severest contraction in eastern Europe after the credit crisis led to a slump in exports of steel and chemicals. Ukraine’s gross domestic product shrank 15.9 percent in the third quarter after declining 17.8 percent in the previous three-month period and a record 20.3 percent in the first quarter.“The position of prime minister is the biggest priority,” said Tigipko. “What I am offered now, I view calmly. When we are talking about Timoshenko or Yanukovych, there will be no trust on my part. One should trust only one’s transparent and public position.”The yield on Kiev’s $250 million notes due in 2015 was little changed at 13.966 percent, near its lowest level since Sept. 30, 2008, Bloomberg data show. Bond prices move inversely to yields.Gas Transit PlansThe government of Ukraine needs to implement policies required by the International Monetary Fund’s stand-by loan program which Ukraine obtained at the end of 2008. Tigipko worked as a deputy prime minister, economy minister and central bank governor under President Leonid Kuchma. He led Yanukovych’s campaign in the 2004 election that resulted in the Orange Revolution, though he resigned before a runoff vote that Yushchenko won.Ukraine “will need the IMF money,” Tigipko said, adding that cooperation with the lender “is going to give a green light” and signal to investors that the country is implementing reforms. He said he also wants Ukraine to sell stakes in its gas transit system, which transports Russian gas imports to western Europe.Ukraine should keep a controlling share of the gas pipelines and allow both Russia and the European Union to hold stakes, he said.Early Elections If he becomes prime minister, Tigipko said he will revise a gas agreement with Russia signed by Timoshenko’s government in January 2009. “None of us knows what is in that contract, it’s not a transparent agreement,” he said.Tigipko, who said he “clearly” supports parliamentary elections as early as May 31, expects “serious” talks with the two leading candidates next week, he said. “Today, I do not want to support any of the candidates. For me, this would be sharing responsibility for the promises they have piled up.”Tigipko won’t urge his voters to back one candidate over another. “Neither Timoshenko nor Yanukovych understands clearly the complications of the economic situation,” Tigipko said. “They don’t have an economic strategy. This is what I have.”Tigipko said he may run for the office of mayor of Kiev in May if doesn’t get the premiership.“The post of Kiev mayor is a good position to stay on top of politics, as well as on top of people’s problems,” he said.

Russian MPs Rap Ukraine President For Honoring Nationalist

MOSCOW, Russia -- Members of Russia's upper house of parliament on Friday condemned a decree by outgoing Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko that posthumously conferred the title of Hero of Ukraine on Stepan Bandera, leader of a militant nationalist movement in western Ukraine in the 1940s, who was assassinated by the KGB in 1959.
"It is simply shameful. If our grandfathers and fathers learned about it they would simply turn in their graves with indignation," Yury Vorobyov, deputy speaker of the Federation Council, told Interfax.Yushchenko's decree reflects complete disregard for historical facts and "runs against common sense and the entire course of history," Vorobyov said. It also conflicts with the position of member countries of the World War II-era anti-Nazi coalition, the deputy speaker said."Stepan Bandera is an odious figure, and he is definitely not a hero of the Ukrainian people," Vorobyov said.Alexander Torshin, first deputy speaker of the house, said Yushchenko has a poor knowledge of his country and its history and accused him of "disrespect for the memory of the slain soldiers who gave their lives for the freedom of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.""All these moves that Yushchenko has been making consistently over a number of years by supporting obvious criminals who have been condemnedaccording toall international canonswith their crimesproved by numerous court trials and witness testimonies are simply offensive and provocative," said Federation Council member Alexander Pochinok.Pochinok said Yushchenko was bound to be aware of Bandera's role in history. "He was bound to realize that he was supporting a criminal. It is an offensive move and it is not in the interests of Ukraine or its people," the lawmaker said.

Did Georgian Leadership Try To Influence Ukraine Presidential Election?

PRAGUE, Czech Republic -- Several prominent Georgian oppositionists have expressed concern at the political implications of two telephone conversations, posted first on Ukrainian then on Georgian websites, which could be construed as evidence that the Georgian leadership sought to influence the January 17 Ukrainian presidential election to secure a victory for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
Relations between Tymoshenko and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili have been haunted by rumors of a torrid love affair between them. Saakashvili denied those rumors as early as 2005, but that did not prevent the production of a movie chronicling the alleged romance.The first conversation posted online was apparently between Saakashvili and Tymoshenko, who thanks him for sending a team of election observers. Saakashvili's administration responded on January 15 to that recording by denying that Georgia supports any of the presidential candidates.The second conversation purportedly took place on January 14 between all-powerful Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili and Givi Targamadze, chairman of the Georgian Committee on Defense and Security, who at the time of the conversation was in Donetsk. Merabishvili tells Targamadze that Akhalaya (Georgia's defense minister) has promised to provide personnel; Targamadze replies that they have already arrived in Donetsk. Merabishvili then orders Targamadze to impress upon his Ukrainian contacts the need to provide air transport for additional Georgian observers prior to the second round of voting.The Georgian authorities have not formally denied the authenticity of either conversation. Targamadze was quoted on January 20 as saying "I think Ukraine now needs to be focused on a more important issue [meaning the second round] rather than wasting time listening to my mobile phone conversations."The Ukrainian Central Election Commission (CEC) refused on January 11 to register 2,011 would-be election observers from Georgia, having already registered a total of 3,149 from other countries. Targamadze was quoted as saying that CEC members from presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions were behind that refusal, and that the 300-plus Georgian election observers already in Donetsk were being hindered in their activities.The Yulia Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) appealed the CEC decision to the Kyiv Appellate Court on January 13 and demanded that the Georgian contingent be accredited. The BYuT subsequently alleged that members of Yanukovych's campaign staff beat up two Georgian journalists in Donetsk on January 16.Saakashvili told journalists on January 18, the day after the election, that the dispatch of 2,000 Georgian election observers was agreed in advance "with all Ukrainian political parties" and that the objective was "to express solidarity and provide assistance to Ukraine," not to "interfere in politics."But prominent Georgian opposition politicians have argued that whatever Saakashvili's intent, his apparent meddling in the Ukrainian presidential ballot could negatively affect relations between the two countries. Eka Beselia of the Movement for a United Georgia argued that in any other country, an interior minister or prominent parliamentarian would have resigned if such damaging allegations came to light.Former Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili argued that "it is not the business of an interior minister to deal with the sending of election observers -- assuming that the persons in question were bona fide observers" and not, as some have alleged, Georgian Interior Ministry personnel.Former Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli, for his part, was quoted by Caucasus Press as telling journalists on January 21 that a formal investigation should be launched and that Merabishvili and Targamadze should be held criminally responsible if that probe yields evidence that they violated the law.

Russia Sees Improved Ties With Ukraine

MOSCOW, Russia -- Russia's foreign minister says strained relations with neighboring Ukraine will improve with the election of a new president there this month.
Sergey Lavrov said Friday that he expects Ukraine to take a less ideological stance against its larger eastern neighbor.Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych is running against Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a second round of voting on Feb. 7.Both have promised to resuscitate ties with Russia, which are flatlining after four years of Western-friendly foreign policy under outgoing incumbent Viktor Yushchenko.Yushchenko suffered a humiliating first-round defeat.Russia is Ukraine's biggest trading partner and historically the region's dominant military power.Russia has bristled at Ukrainian attempts to gain NATO membership.